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1 – 10 of 365Steven D. Silver and Marko Raseta
The intention of the empirics is to contribute to the general understanding of investor responses to market price shocks. The authors review assumptions about investor behavior in…
Abstract
Purpose
The intention of the empirics is to contribute to the general understanding of investor responses to market price shocks. The authors review assumptions about investor behavior in response to price shocks and investigate alternative rebalancing heuristics.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use market data over 40 years to define market shocks. Portfolio rebalancing implements constrained Markowitz mean-variance (MV) heuristics.
Findings
Momentum rebalancing in portfolio management outperforms contrarian rebalancing in the study interval. Sensitivity analysis by decade, sector constraints and proportion of security holdings bought or sold continue to support momentum rebalancing.
Research limitations/implications
The results are consistent with under-responding to price shocks at consensus levels in financial markets. The theoretical background provides a basis for experimental lab studies of shocks of different magnitudes under conditions in which participants have information on the levels of other participants and a condition in which they can only observe their previous estimates.
Practical implications
Managing portfolios in the face of price disturbances of different magnitudes is informed by empirical studies and their implications for investor behavior.
Originality/value
This is the first study the authors can locate that uses market data with alternative rebalancing heuristics to estimate price returns from the respective heuristics over a time interval of 40 years. The authors support the results with sensitivity estimates and consider implications for the underlying agent heuristics in light of background studies.
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Zoltán Pápai, Péter Nagy and Aliz McLean
This study aims to estimate the quality-adjusted changes in residential mobile consumer prices by controlling for the changes in the relevant service characteristics and quality…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to estimate the quality-adjusted changes in residential mobile consumer prices by controlling for the changes in the relevant service characteristics and quality, in a case study on Hungary between 2015 and 2021; compare the results with changes measured by the traditionally calculated official telecommunications price index of the Statistical Office; and discuss separating the hedonic price changes from the effect of a specific government intervention that occurred in Hungary, namely, the significant reduction in the value added tax rate (VAT) levied on internet services.
Design/methodology/approach
Since the price of commercial mobile offers does not directly reflect the continuous improvements in service characteristics and functionalities over time, the price changes need to be adjusted for changes in quality. The authors use hedonic regression analysis to address this issue.
Findings
The results show significant hedonic price changes over the observed seven-year period of over 30%, which turns out to be primarily driven by the significant developments in the comprising service characteristics and not the VAT policy change.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature on hedonic price analyses on complex telecommunications service plans and enhances this methodology by using weights and analysing the content-related features of the mobile packages.
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Yubo Guo, Jinchan Liu, Chuan Chen, Xiaowei Luo and Igor Martek
Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) are crucial to the procurement of global infrastructure projects. Moreover, a price mode based on a cluster of core concessionary items is key…
Abstract
Purpose
Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) are crucial to the procurement of global infrastructure projects. Moreover, a price mode based on a cluster of core concessionary items is key to the delivery of value-for-money and successful project outcomes. However, existing research has yet to fully identify PPP concessionary items, nor yet described the range of practical price modes. This study provides taxonomy of core concessionary items impacting PPP projects, systematically classifies price modes, and assesses the applicability and risk impacts of those price modes on PPP projects.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts a comparative case study method in analyzing core concessionary items and alternative price modes. China is taken as the context, as it is one of the world’s largest PPP markets. In ensuring research validity and reliability, diverse data sources are utilized, with a graphic content analysis tool developed to capture the structure of price modes.
Findings
Eight PPP price modes are identified. These are: (1) UP (Unit Price) mode, (2) ALS (Annual Lump Sum) mode, (3) IRR (Internal Rate of Return) mode, (4) RP (Return for Investing Capital (RIC) - Profit Rate of O&M (PROM)) mode, (5) RFP (RIC - Financing Interest Rate (FR) - PROM) mode, (6) RFPL (RIC - FR - PROM - Lower Limit of User Charge (LLoUC)) mode, (7) RFL (RIC - FR - Lump Sum/Fixed Unit Price O&M Contract (LSOM/FUP)) mode, and (8) RFLL (RIC - FR - LSOM/FUP - LLoUC) mode. Other main findings are as follows: (1) Five risk allocation configurations can be achieved via these price modes. Yet while different price modes enable the allocation of specific risks, these do not always align with contracting parties’ original intentions. (2) IRR and RP modes may be less applicable in general because of their vulnerability in allocating critical risks and capacity for spurring opportunistic behavior.
Originality/value
By depicting the paths by which concessionary items in price modes affect cash flow, a systematic analysis of price modes was conducted exposing structural characteristics, along with risk allocation choice implications. The study is unique in: (1) Providing a systematic classification of PPP price modes used in PPP projects, (2) Presenting a comprehensive identification and streamlining of concessionary items in PPP practice, and (3) Analyzing the risk effects of different price modes. Together, these outcomes offer a hitherto unavailable perspective on PPP project risk management. The value of the study lies in the following: (1) Existing studies employ diverse concessionary items, but their applicability varies. This study offers an overarching framework facilitating decision-making in selecting appropriate PPP price modes and in determining concessionary items. (2) This study adds to the understanding of PPP price modes in significant ways that will aid local governments and potential sponsors in crafting and administrating more workable contract designs.
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Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
Understandings of house prices and their interrelationships have undoubtedly drawn a great amount of attention from various market participants. This study aims to investigate the…
Abstract
Purpose
Understandings of house prices and their interrelationships have undoubtedly drawn a great amount of attention from various market participants. This study aims to investigate the monthly newly-built residential house price indices of seventy Chinese cities during a 10-year period spanning January 2011–December 2020 for understandings of issues related to their interdependence and synchronizations.
Design/methodology/approach
Analysis here is facilitated through network analysis together with topological and hierarchical characterizations of price comovements.
Findings
This study determines eight sectoral groups of cities whose house price indices are directly connected and the price synchronization within each group is higher than that at the national level, although each shows rather idiosyncratic patterns. Degrees of house price comovements are generally lower starting from 2018 at the national level and for the eight sectoral groups. Similarly, this study finds that the synchronization intensity associated with the house price index of each city generally switches to a lower level starting from early 2019.
Originality/value
Results here should be of use to policy design and analysis aiming at housing market evaluations and monitoring.
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Viviana Pilato and Ari Van Assche
Carbon leakage – where multinational enterprises (MNEs) transfer carbon-intensive production activities to countries with laxer emissions constraints for cost purposes – is one of…
Abstract
Carbon leakage – where multinational enterprises (MNEs) transfer carbon-intensive production activities to countries with laxer emissions constraints for cost purposes – is one of the main mechanisms through which international business (IB) contributes to climate change. This chapter discusses a new policy initiative called the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) that the European Union (EU) introduced in May 2023 to fight carbon leakage. The authors analyze the logic of CBAM and discuss how it will likely influence IB both in industries that are directly targeted by CBAM and related industries that will face spillover effects.
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Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in…
Abstract
Purpose
Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in their effects on price has not been well-defined. Investigating causal ordering in their effects on price can further our understanding of both direct and indirect effects in their relationship to market price.
Design/methodology/approach
We use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to examine the relationship between agent expectations and news sentiment in predicting price in a financial market. The ARDL estimation is supplemented by Grainger causality testing.
Findings
In the ARDL models we implement, measures of expectations and news sentiment and their lags were confirmed to be significantly related to market price in separate estimates. Our results further indicate that in models of relationships between these predictors, news sentiment is a significant predictor of agent expectations, but agent expectations are not significant predictors of news sentiment. Granger-causality estimates confirmed the causal inferences from ARDL results.
Research limitations/implications
Taken together, the results extend our understanding of the dynamics of expectations and sentiment as exogenous information sources that relate to price in financial markets. They suggest that the extensively cited predictor of news sentiment can have both a direct effect on market price and an indirect effect on price through agent expectations.
Practical implications
Even traditional financial management firms now commonly track behavioral measures of expectations and market sentiment. More complete understanding of the relationship between these predictors of market price can further their representation in predictive models.
Originality/value
This article extends the frequently reported bivariate relationship of expectations and sentiment to market price to examine jointness in the relationship between these variables in predicting price. Inference from ARDL estimates is supported by Grainger-causality estimates.
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Qi Sun, Yaya Gao, Qihui Lu and Yingyi Yan
Different external supply scenarios faced by the retailers will affect their choice of strategy when supply is disrupted and becomes far less than demand, urgently. This study…
Abstract
Purpose
Different external supply scenarios faced by the retailers will affect their choice of strategy when supply is disrupted and becomes far less than demand, urgently. This study focuses on analyzing both demand and supply side response strategies to meet customer demand and reduce the impact of the shortage during supply disruptions.
Design/methodology/approach
According to the quantity of products that the external market can provide, the external supply scenarios were divided into sufficient-type external supply and learning-type external supply. A two-echelon perishable goods supply chain was analyzed, and three kinds of contingency strategy models for downstream retailers were investigated. First, in the sufficient external supply scenario, the optimal price and transshipment quantity to maximize retailer's profits is discussed. Second, in the scenario of learning-type external supply, this study analyzes the optimal decision in three mechanisms of the hybrid strategy and their application: price priority mechanism, quantity priority mechanism and price–quantity balance mechanism. Furthermore, the influence of penalty cost and supply on the priority orders of different mechanisms was studied.
Findings
Results show that comparing the two pure strategies (pricing strategy and transshipment strategy)it was noted that the hybrid strategy produces the best results in sufficient-type external supply scenario. In the learning-type external supply scenario, a numerical study has shown the existence of three areas in case of penalty cost and supplier's capacity, and each areas has different priority orders of the three mechanisms. Under the situation of learning external supply, the retailer's optimal strategy is affected by parameters such as penalty cost and supply volume.
Originality/value
The main innovation of the work lies in the following: First; the external supply situation was divided into sufficiency type and learning type, which improves the external situation faced by retailers after the outbreak of emergencies, helps retailers understand the external situation, conforms to the actual situation and has certain practical application value. Second; in the context of learning external supply, there are three coping strategies for retailers, including: Price priority mechanism, Quantity priority mechanism and Pricing and transshipment balance mechanism. This will help retailers make strategic choices, make more scientific management decisions and improve the supply chain emergency management theory. Third; the demand side response was managed through the change of external supply during supply side recovery period and supply disruption. The proposed model enables managing and analyzing supply disruption efficiently and effectively via handling uncertainty by considering all aspects of decision-making process. The proposed model can be applied in various fields such as vegetable and fruit, fresh food, etc.
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This paper aims to examine the dynamics of house prices in metropolitan cities in an emerging economy. The purpose of this study is to characterise the house price dynamics and…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the dynamics of house prices in metropolitan cities in an emerging economy. The purpose of this study is to characterise the house price dynamics and the spatial heterogeneity in the dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
The author explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics, using data for 35 Indian cities with a million-plus population. The research methodology uses panel econometrics allowing for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and non-stationary data. The author tests for spatial differences and analyses the income elasticity of prices, the role of construction costs and lending to the real estate industry by commercial banks.
Findings
Long-term fundamentals drive the Indian housing markets, where wealth parameters are stronger than supply-side parameters such as construction costs or availability of financing for housing projects. The long-term elasticity of house prices to aggregate household deposits (wealth proxy) varies considerably across cities. However, the elasticity estimated at 0.39 is low. The highest coefficient is for Ludhiana (1.14), followed by Bhubaneswar (0.78). The short-term dynamics are robust and show spatial heterogeneity. Short-term momentum (lagged housing price changes) has a parameter value of 0.307. The momentum factor is the crucial dynamic in the short term. The second driver, the reversion rate to long-term equilibrium (estimated at −0.18), is higher than rates reported from developed markets.
Research limitations/implications
This research applies to markets that require some home equity contributions from buyers of housing services.
Practical implications
Stakeholders can characterise stable housing markets based on long-term fundamental value and short-run house price dynamics. Because stable housing markets benefit all stakeholders, weak or non-existent mean reversion dynamics may prompt the intervention of policymakers. The role of urban planners, and local and regional governance, is essential to remove the bottlenecks from the demand side or supply side factors that can lead to runaway prices.
Originality/value
Existing literature is concerned about the risk of a housing bubble due to relaxed credit norms. To prevent housing market bubbles, some regulators require higher contributions from home buyers in the form of equity. The dynamics of house prices in markets with higher owner equity requirements vary from high-leverage markets. The influence of wealth effects is examined using novel data sets. This research, documents in an emerging market context, the observations cited in low-leverage developed markets such as Germany and Japan.
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Yanwen Tan, Ruixue Yue, Liru Chen, Congxi Li and Kevin Z. Chen
This paper aims to examine whether China's grain price support policy has distorted the grain market price.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine whether China's grain price support policy has distorted the grain market price.
Design/methodology/approach
The time-varying differences-in-differences (DID) model is used to study the impact of support policies on grain prices, and it is combined with the event study method to explore the dynamic effects of price support policy. Panel data model is used to study the effect of the price support policy on price formation for national grain market prices. In addition, we apply the smooth transformation (STR) model to verify whether there is a distortion in the transmission of grain prices among different markets in China and from the international market to China’s market.
Findings
China’s grain price support policy plays a significant role in rising grain market prices, weakens the decisive role of the market mechanism in the formation of grain prices, hinders the spatial transmission of market price signals and decreases the effect of price transmission from the world market to China’s market.
Research limitations/implications
In order to ensure both the stability of grain production as well as the market stability, and also to ensure that intervention policies do not distort the food market, the minimum purchase price of grain and market regulation policies should be adjusted as follows: (1) price support policy should be shifted to an income support policy and (2) reasonably determine the scale of reserves and implement a grain minimum purchase price policy in limited areas.
Originality/value
Our findings are relevant for understanding the effect of China's grain price support policies on the implementation regions and the price transmission effect, which provide reference experience for developing countries to implement food price policies.
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