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Article
Publication date: 15 June 2012

Ritab Al‐Khouri and Abdulkhader Abdallah

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether stock market liberalization creates excess stock return volatility in the Qatar Exchange (QSC).

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether stock market liberalization creates excess stock return volatility in the Qatar Exchange (QSC).

Design/methodology/approach

The study utilizes two methods, simple analysis of variance and the EGARCH model with dummy variables.

Findings

Results reveal no change in market volatility following the partial removal of the restrictions on foreign participation. Results suggest, however, that the degree of persistence in volatility is high, which implies that once volatility increases it remains high over a long run. In addition, conditional volatility tends to rise when the absolute value of the standardized residuals was large. While, contrary to what has been found in the literature, the return volatility seems to be symmetric.

Research limitations/implications

The finding of volatility persistence and clustering might imply an inefficient stock market. Therefore, policy makers should emphasize and direct their attention toward increasing the efficiency of the stock market.

Practical implications

Being able to make predictions about financial market volatility is of special importance to investors and policy makers since it makes available to them a measure of risk exposure in their investments and decisions.

Originality/value

This paper provides a contribution to the empirical literature on stock market volatility. It is the only study, to the authors' knowledge, that investigates the issue of QSC liberalization and volatility. The authors believe that QSC has its own unique characteristics, and the results of the study depend mainly on the market's specific conditions, the quality of its financial institutions and the extent of financial liberalization obtained.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 February 2013

Qiang Bu and Nelson Lacey

The purpose of this study is to examine the market‐timing ability of mutual fund flows and how fund investors conduct asset allocation in response to market volatility.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the market‐timing ability of mutual fund flows and how fund investors conduct asset allocation in response to market volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper compares the abnormal returns of net inflow funds with those of net outflow funds, and it explores the performance gap between them based on a model that incorporates both market return timing and market volatility timing. The asset allocation pattern of fund investors and its relation to market volatility are also investigated.

Findings

This study finds that funds that receive net money inflows fail to earn risk‐adjusted abnormal returns, while funds with net outflows earn statistically significant negative abnormal returns. Neither the net inflow funds nor the net outflow funds show any ability to time the market return, but there is some evidence that net inflow funds exhibit an ability to time market volatility. Because cash holdings of the net outflow funds are much lower than that of the net inflow funds, it is concluded that the underperformance of net outflow funds is to an extent an asset fire sale.

Research limitations/implications

The study results show that fund investors on the whole are driven by market volatility, and they do not have an ability to time the market return. The results do not exclude the possibility that a small number of investors possess market timing skills.

Originality/value

The study demonstrates the importance of funds' liquidity management through investor reaction to dynamic market conditions.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 February 2014

Shiyong Yoo

In this study, we explore the empirical relationship between trading volume and volatility among KOSPI200 index stock market, futures and options markets. In particular, in…

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Abstract

In this study, we explore the empirical relationship between trading volume and volatility among KOSPI200 index stock market, futures and options markets. In particular, in explaining the volatility of each market, the trading in other markets, as well as the trading volume of other markets, also served as explanatory variables. In other words, cross-market effects of trading volume by investor types are analyzed. The empirical results show that there exist the cross-market effects of the relationship between trading volume and volatility in deeply integrated financial markets such as KOSPI200 index stock, futures and options markets. That is, the volatility of one market is explained by the trading volume of trader types in other financial markets. And, overall options trading increases the volatility of each market, while the overall futures trading volume of foreign investors reduce the volatility of each market. Trading volume of Individual investors does not reduce the volatilities of KOSPI200 index and futures markets. That is, trading volume of Individual investors in stock, futures, and options markets increase the volatilities of stock and futures. This implies that foreign investors are informed traders, whereas individual investors are liquidity traders.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies, vol. 22 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2713-6647

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 March 2016

Constantin Gurdgiev and Barry Trueick

At the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2008, majority of the analysts and policymakers have anticipated contagion from the markets volatility in the advanced…

Abstract

Purpose

At the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2008, majority of the analysts and policymakers have anticipated contagion from the markets volatility in the advanced economies (AEs) to the emerging markets (EMs). This chapter examines the volatility spillovers from the AEs’ equity markets (Japan, the United States and Europe) to the four key EMs, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China).

Methodology

The period under study, from 2000 through mid-2014, reflects a time of varying regimes in markets volatility, including the periods of dot.com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Great Recession and the start of the Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical crisis. To estimate volatility cross-linkages between the AEs and BRIC markets, we use multivariate GARCH-BEKK model across a number of specifications.

Findings

We find that, the developed economies weighted return volatility did have a significant impact on volatility across all four of the BRIC economies returns. However, contrary to the consensus view, there was no evidence of volatility spillover from the individual AEs onto BRIC economies with the exception of a spillover from Europe to Brazil. The implied forward-looking expectations for markets volatility had a strong and significant spillover effect onto Brazil, Russia and China, and a weaker effect on India.

Practical Implications

The evidence on volatility spillovers from the AEs markets to EMs puts into question the traditional view of financial and economic systems sustainability in the presence of higher orders of integration of the global monetary and financial systems. Overall, data suggest that we are witnessing less than perfect integration between BRIC economies and AEs markets to-date can offer some volatility hedging opportunities for investors.

Originality

Our chapter contributes to the growing literature on volatility spillovers from the AEs to the EMs in a number of ways. Firstly, we provide a formal analysis of the spillovers to the BRIC economies over the periods of recent crises. Secondly, we make new conclusions concerning longer-term spillovers as opposed to higher frequency volatility contagion covered by the previous literature. Thirdly, we consider a new channel for volatility contagion – the trade-weighted AEs volatility measure.

Details

Lessons from the Great Recession: At the Crossroads of Sustainability and Recovery
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-743-1

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 March 2016

Constantin Gurdgiev and Barry Murphy

This chapter presents the results of the comprehensive literature survey and supportive empirical assessment of the potential impacts of the Financial Transactions Tax (FTT…

Abstract

Purpose

This chapter presents the results of the comprehensive literature survey and supportive empirical assessment of the potential impacts of the Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) recently adopted by the European Commission in response to the significant financial sector misallocations arising from the Global Financial Crisis.

Methodology/approach

A survey of 50 academic articles relating to both Financial Transaction Taxes and Tobin Taxes shows that although a reduction in liquidity can be expected from such taxes, the impacts this will have on volatility and efficiency in a market are less obvious. A regression model quantifying what the possible effect of an introduction of a 0.1% tax on financial transactions would be on trading volumes and levels of volatility in the European equity market confirms the survey results in broader terms.

Findings

The results suggest that, in the current economic climate, such a tax would likely increase volatility levels but may not have much effect on trading volumes.

Practical implications

As a result the proposed tax can be viewed as an exercise in revenue generation but not as a macro-prudential tool for addressing potential future shocks and imbalances within the European financial system. In other words, contrary to political and media statements, the FTT does not appear to be an effective tool for addressing past, present and future risks associated with systemic malfunctioning in the banking and financial systems.

Originality/value

The study presents an extensive and systematic survey of academic literature on FTT and links this survey to empirical model estimation. This twin approach to the analysis is novel to the academic and policy literature on Financial Transactions Tax. Whilst popular belief is that introduction of FTT will aid the objective of achieving greater financial and economic sustainability across the European financial systems, evidence presented in this chapter suggests that such a conclusion is at the very best naive.

Details

Lessons from the Great Recession: At the Crossroads of Sustainability and Recovery
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-743-1

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 30 November 2011

Massimo Guidolin

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to…

Abstract

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.

Details

Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78052-526-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 November 2007

Deqing Diane Li and Kenneth Yung

The purpose of this paper is twofold in examining the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. The first purpose is to add to the literature on whether the real…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is twofold in examining the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. The first purpose is to add to the literature on whether the real estate securities market and the broader equity market are integrated. The second objective of the study is to determine whether geographic risk factors can be transmitted beyond their region of influence.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the GARCH(1, 1), EGARCH, and GARCH‐M models.

Findings

The results show that there are significant international spillovers of REIT returns volatility within the Pacific region. The results also show that there are significant volatility transmissions between the Pacific and the Atlantic regions.

Practical implications

The results are consistent with the implication that the real estate sector and the general equity market are integrated such that geographic risk can be transmitted across national borders. The result will have major implications for international investment strategies.

Originality/value

To date, there has been no published study on the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. This study therefore examines whether the conditional variance of REIT returns of a country is affected by volatility transmission across markets in the same region using four Pacific markets.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 6 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 May 2023

Godwin Musah, Daniel Domeher and Abubakar Musah

This paper aims to investigate the effect of presidential elections on stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the effect of presidential elections on stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses various criteria to select an appropriate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to estimate the second moment of the return distribution with the inclusion of pre- and post-presidential election dummy variables that capture the effect of presidential elections on stock market volatility.

Findings

The empirical results show that high pre-election uncertainty increases volatility in the Nairobi Stock Exchange, Stock Exchange of Mauritius and the Nigeria Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the results show that volatility in stock return is reduced 90 days after an election in Nigeria and South Africa but increases 90 days after elections in Ghana.

Originality/value

Contrary to the previous studies that are conducted in a single country with focus on specific elections, this paper provides a comparative analysis of presidential elections and stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 April 2023

João Paulo Vieito, Christian Espinosa, Wing-Keung Wong, Munkh-Ulzii Batmunkh, Enkhbayar Choijil and Mustafa Hussien

It has been argued in the literature that structural changes in the financial markets, such as integration, have the potential to cause herding behavior or correlated behavioral…

Abstract

Purpose

It has been argued in the literature that structural changes in the financial markets, such as integration, have the potential to cause herding behavior or correlated behavioral patterns in traders. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there is any financial herding behavior in the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA), a transnational stock market composed of Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico stock exchanges and whether there is any ARCH or GARCH effect in the herding behavior models.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the modified return dispersion approach on daily index return data. The sample period is from January 03, 2002 to May 07, 2019. The data are obtained from the MILA database. To count time-varying volatilities in herding models, the authors run ARCH family regression with GARCH (1,1) settings. Hwang and Salmon (2004) model is used as a robustness test.

Findings

The authors found strong herding behavior under the general market conditions and moderate and partial herding behavior under some specified markets circumstances, such as bull and bear markets and high-low volatility states. Moreover, the pre-MILA period exhibits more herding behavior than the post-MILA period. The empirical results show that most of the ARCH and GARCH effects are statistically significant, implying that the past information of stock returns and market volatility significantly affect the volatility of following periods, which can also explain the formation of herding tendency among investors. Finally, the results of the robustness tests (Hwang and Salmon, 2004) confirm herding in all periods, except full sample period for Mexico and post-MILA period for Mexico and Colombia.

Research limitations/implications

This study investigates the herding behavior in the MILA market in terms of market return, volatility and timing. A limitation of the paper is that the authors have not included other factors on the formation of herding behavior, such as macroeconomic factors, effects of regional or international markets and policy influences. The authors will explore the issue in the extension of the paper.

Practical implications

As MILA is the first virtual integration of stock exchanges without merging, the study provides useful findings and draws good inferences of herding behavior in the MILA market in terms of market return, volatility and timing which are useful for academics, investors and policymakers in their investment and decision makings.

Social implications

The paper provides useful findings and draws good inferences of herding behavior in the MILA market in terms of market return, volatility and timing which are not only useful in practical implications, but also in social implications.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the herding literature by examining four different hypotheses in respect of the unique case of transnational stock exchange without fusions or corporate mergers, where each market maintains its independence and regulatory autonomy. The authors also contribute to the literature by including both ARCH and GARCH effects in the herding behavioral models along the Hwang and Salmon (2004) approach.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 March 2018

Mehmet F. Dicle and John Levendis

The purpose of this paper is to hypothesize two channels in which market volatility affects initial public offering (IPO) activity.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to hypothesize two channels in which market volatility affects initial public offering (IPO) activity.

Design/methodology/approach

First, CEOs time the market for IPOs and volatility makes this decision process harder. Second, risk-averse IPO investors become more reluctant toward IPOs during periods of higher volatility for their after-IPO returns.

Findings

The authors provide evidence that higher market volatility leads to lower IPO activity, supporting these hypotheses. More importantly, the authors show that it is not the realized volatility, but rather the implied (expected) volatility, that causes lower IPO activity.

Research limitations/implications

While there may be many companies that are ready to have IPOs, they may be simply waiting for a more opportune time which may not necessarily be a period of high prices but of low volatility.

Practical implications

The public policy prescription is clear: if IPOs are to be encouraged, then regulatory policies should be constructed with the aim of reducing volatility.

Originality/value

This study is the first (to the authors’ knowledge) to argue that it is not the realized volatility which most affects the IPO decisions of executives, entrepreneurs and investors.

Details

Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2045-2101

Keywords

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