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The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

This study reinvestigates the validity of the Phillips curve in Nigeria for the period 1980–2020 by considering the asymmetric nexus between unemployment and inflation.

The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique was used to decompose the unemployment variable into two components: tight and loosened labour markets.

The empirical outcome shows that unemployment has a significant negative effect on inflation when the labour market is tight and a weakly negative and significant effect on inflation when the labour market is loose. The study confirms an asymmetric Phillips curve in Nigeria since the positive (tight) unemployment rate exerts a greater effect on inflation than the negative (loosened) unemployment rate.

The findings of this study have important implications for implementing monetary policy in Nigeria.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the existence of a nonlinear Phillip curve in Nigeria.

Socioeconomic aims and impacts are an explicit part of the UK City of Culture (UKCoC) application, bidding, delivery and evaluation stages. This article engages with existing debates on evaluating cities of culture and introduces perspectives from critical data studies to examine the collection and analysis of different data for the purposes of the CoC application and evaluation processes.

The meta-methodological concept of accompanying researcher is used to analyse the experiences of researchers based within a city bidding for UKCoC 2025 in dialogue with the evaluation reports from past UKCoC host cities.

Findings are analysed under three themes: defining data morsels; local histories and infrastructures of data generation and sharing; and resources, capacities and expertise for data generation and evaluation. The discussion examines data still to be generated and/or brought into relation; tensions around data and measurement; and how constructing an evaluation baseline is generative—creating new organisations, relationships and practices.

The conceptual and methodological approach and empirical findings will be relevant for academic, policymakers and practitioners engaging with cultural evaluation.

In focussing on the bidding stage in real time through the accompanying researcher position, this article presents original empirical insights into the process of creating a baseline for cities of culture evaluation. The conceptual originality of this article is in using critical data studies to explain strategies of data generation and analyse data relations and frictions.

This study aims to examine how sharia supervisory board (SSB) characteristics are determinants of the maqashid sharia performance (MSP) of Islamic banks (IBs) and how MSP has implications for profitability and for profit-sharing investment account holders (PSIAHs).

MSP is ascertained by semi-structured interviews. The SSB characteristics measured are size, cross-membership, education level, expertise, reputation, rotation and remuneration. Annual reports of Indonesian and Malaysian IBs from 2010 to 2018 are analysed using panel data regression.

In Indonesia, SSB education level attenuates MSP, while other characteristics have only minor influence. However, in Malaysia, SSB size, education and reputation reinforce MSP, while others are ineffective. MSP in both countries is pseudo-Islamic; so their customers ignore religiosity. However, MSP in Malaysia can improve profitability because sharia assurance is more transparent; meanwhile, MSP in Indonesia cannot improve profitability because sharia assurance is less transparent.

In order for MSP to improve in Indonesia, the regulators need to increase SSB size, reduce cross-membership and arrange the format for sharia assurance in SSB reports, while IBs need to increase SSB education and expertise.

MSP is constructed in accordance with legal and social requirements to achieve IBs’ Islamic, economic, social and ethical objectives. Resource dependence theory is used to evaluate SSB, while PSIAH and profitability are investigated to demonstrate the impact of MSP. Finally, comparing SSB capabilities in Indonesia and Malaysia could be beneficial to regulatory and IB policies.