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Abstract

Details

Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-325-1

Book part
Publication date: 29 May 2009

W. Erwin Diewert

The chapter reviews and extends the theory of exact and superlative index numbers. Exact index numbers are empirical index number formula that are equal to an underlying…

Abstract

The chapter reviews and extends the theory of exact and superlative index numbers. Exact index numbers are empirical index number formula that are equal to an underlying theoretical index, provided that the consumer has preferences that can be represented by certain functional forms. These exact indexes can be used to measure changes in a consumer's cost of living or welfare. Two cases are considered: the case of homothetic preferences and the case of nonhomothetic preferences. In the homothetic case, exact index numbers are obtained for square root quadratic preferences, quadratic mean of order r preferences, and normalized quadratic preferences. In the nonhomothetic case, exact indexes are obtained for various translog preferences.

Abstract

Details

The Theory of Monetary Aggregation
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44450-119-6

Book part
Publication date: 30 September 2020

Vincent Geloso and Michael Hinton

We construct a new consumer price index for Canada covering the period from 1870 to 1900. Unlike previous indexes, it includes prices of clothing and household furnishings. This…

Abstract

We construct a new consumer price index for Canada covering the period from 1870 to 1900. Unlike previous indexes, it includes prices of clothing and household furnishings. This is important because these previously neglected components accounted for roughly 20% of consumers' expenditures. Moreover, the price of cotton goods, the most important textile product used for clothing and household furnishings, fell by half between 1870 and 1900 (much faster than other components of the price level). This has ramifications for both the level and trend of Canadian GDP. Because the largest changes in estimation concern the 1870s, we show that the country grew substantially faster than generally believed. It outpaced the United States so much that it entered the twentieth century with an improved economic standing relative to its southern neighbor.

Abstract

Details

The Theory of Monetary Aggregation
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44450-119-6

Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh and Waël Louhichi

This chapter analyzes the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into different prices for 12 euro area (EA) countries. We provide new up-to-date estimates of ERPT by paying attention…

Abstract

This chapter analyzes the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into different prices for 12 euro area (EA) countries. We provide new up-to-date estimates of ERPT by paying attention to either the time-series properties of data and variables endogeneity. Using VECM framework, we examine the pass-through at different stages along the distribution chain, that is, import prices, producer prices, and consumer prices. When carrying out impulse response functions analysis, we find a higher pass-through to import prices with a complete pass-through (after one year) detected for roughly half of EA countries. These estimates are relatively large compared to single-equation literature. We denote that the magnitude of the pass-through of exchange rate shocks declines along the distribution chain of pricing, with the modest effect recorded for consumer prices. When assessing for the determinant of cross-country differences in the ERPT, we find that inflation level, inflation volatility, and exchange rate persistence are the main macroeconomic factors influencing the pass-through almost along the pricing chain. Thereafter, we have tested for the decline of the response of consumer prices across EA countries. According to multivariate time-series Chow test, the stability of ERPT coefficients was rejected, and the impulse responses of consumer prices over 1990–2010 provide an evidence of general decline in rates of pass-through in most of the EA countries. Finally, using the historical decompositions, our results reveal that external factors, that is, exchange rate and import prices shocks, have had important inflationary impacts on inflation since 1999 compared to the pre-EMU period.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 May 2024

Dirar Abdulhameed Alotaibi

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on some fiscal and monetary indicators in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on some fiscal and monetary indicators in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Design/methodology/approach

The research relied on data, studies and reports issued by the International Monetary Fund, Arab Monetary Fund, Saudi Central Bank, Investing Website and the World in Data Website.

Findings

Many sectors have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, which outbreak has been associated with a high cost, in addition to increased inflation and prices, a result that was confirmed by the increase in consumer price indices for different sectors. The general consumer price index for the second period rose above that of the first period, while an upward shift occurred in the curve depicting the Saudi Riyal exchange rate against the United States (US) dollar during the second period above that of the first period, only in slope, due to outbreak of the pandemic. Impact of the number of daily new cases infected with COVID-19 was the highest on the opening and closing price indices of the food retail sector, the pharmaceutical sector and the transportation sector; while impact of the number of daily deaths by COVID-19 was the highest on the opening and closing price indices of the banking sector, the general index and the investment and finance sector. In addition, impact of the daily reproduction rate of COVID-19 was the highest on the opening price indices of the energy sector, the food production sector and the transportation sector.

Research limitations/implications

The research aims to demonstrate measures taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through fiscal and monetary policies.

Practical implications

The COVID-19 pandemic is still an ongoing global pandemic. The virus was first identified in Wuhan City in China at the beginning of December 2019. At the end of January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the virus represented a public health emergency, and later, on March 11, 2020, WHO declared the situation had transformed into a pandemic. Until January 17, 2022, the pandemic had caused more than 328 million cases and 545 million deaths, while 188 million of the cases had recovered. It is worth mentioning that the pandemic caused several social and economic disruptions, including a global economic recession; shortages in goods, supplies and equipment due to consumers' panic and thus tendency to buy; besides causing other disruptions like the negative impacts on health, as well as political, cultural, religious and sport events that influenced economic policies, including both the fiscal and monetary policies of world countries (Wikipedia, 2022).

Social implications

Social implications steps that taken to reduce the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to measuring the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (as the main event next to which other events fade up) on some of the fiscal and monetary indicators for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Originality/value

The research aims to demonstrate measures taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to measuring the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (as the main event next to which other events fade up) on some of the fiscal and monetary indicators for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Book part
Publication date: 24 January 2022

Münevvere Yıldız and Letife Özdemir

Purpose: Investors and portfolio managers can earn profitably when they correctly predict when stock prices will go up or down. For this reason, it is crucial to know the effect…

Abstract

Purpose: Investors and portfolio managers can earn profitably when they correctly predict when stock prices will go up or down. For this reason, it is crucial to know the effect levels of the factors that affect stock prices. In addition to macroeconomic factors, the psychological behavior of investors also affects stock prices. Therefore, the study aims to reveal the different sensitivity levels of the stock index against macroeconomic and psychological factors.

Design/Methodology/Approach: In this study, dollar rate (USD), euro rate (EURO), time deposit interest rate (IR), gold price (GOLD), industrial production index (IPI), and consumer price index (CPI) (inflation (INF)) were used as macroeconomic factors, while Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and VIX Fear Index (VIX) were used as psychological factors. In addition, the BIST-100 index, which is listed in Borsa Istanbul, was used as the stock index. The sensitivity of the stock index to macroeconomic and psychological factors was investigated using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) method using data from January 2012 to October 2020.

Findings: In the analyses performed using the MARS method, the coefficients of INF, USD, EURO, IR, CCI, and VIX Index were found to be statistically significant and effective on the stock index. Among these variables, INF has the highest effect on stocks. It is followed by USD, IR, EURO, CCI, and VIX. GOLD and IPI variables did not show statistical significance in the model. The most important difference of the MARS model from other regressions is that each factor’s effect on the stock index is analyzed by separating it according to the value of the factor. According to the results obtained from the MARS model: (1) it has been determined that USD, EURO, IR, and CPI have both positive and negative effects on the stock market index and (2) CCI and VIX have been found to have negative effects on stocks. These results provide essential information about how investors who plan to invest in the stock index should take into consideration different macroeconomic and psychological values.

Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature as it is one of the first studies to examine the effects of factors affecting the stock index by decomposing it according to the values it takes. Also, this study provides additional information by listing the factors affecting the stock index in order of importance. These results will help investors, portfolio managers, company executives, and policy-makers understand the stock markets.

Details

Insurance and Risk Management for Disruptions in Social, Economic and Environmental Systems: Decision and Control Allocations within New Domains of Risk
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-140-3

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 April 2021

Mahdi Salehi, Mehdi Behname and Mohammad Sadegh Adibian

This paper aims to examine the interrelationships of monetary policy's structural shocks, the real exchange rate and stock prices.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the interrelationships of monetary policy's structural shocks, the real exchange rate and stock prices.

Design/methodology/approach

According to quarterly data, variables such as gross domestic product, consumer price index, the real exchange rate, stock price and monetary policy indices in the structural vector autoregressions model are estimated. These variables' volatility is attributed to other variables’ structural shocks separately, and analysis of variance tables for all variables is presented.

Findings

The results show that structural shock on the exchange rate does not affect the stock price, but the monetary policy's structural shock positively impacts the real exchange rate. Moreover, the real exchange rate and monetary policy's structural shocks have a negative impact on the stock price index. However, no significant effect is found pertain to the real exchange rate structural shock, statistically.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study model is relatively novel in developing countries, and the study sought strength to develop knowledge on the subject of the study.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 January 1990

T.C.E. Cheng, Y.K. Lo and K.W. Ma

Over the last twenty years the financial markets of Hong Kong have developed rapidly. Although empirical studies on the behaviour of the Hong Kong stock market abound, much…

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Abstract

Over the last twenty years the financial markets of Hong Kong have developed rapidly. Although empirical studies on the behaviour of the Hong Kong stock market abound, much controversy over the efficiency of the market still exists. Some recent studies have shown that the market is inefficient in the “weak” form. Therefore one can justify employing the “fundamental approach” for stock price forecasting This study explores the use of multiple regression techniques to forecast stock price index. The results show that unemployment rate, trade balance, consumer price index and money supply are all significant in leading the stock price index. However, the regression models are still short of sufficient power to effectively predict change of direction of the index. Further enhancement of the models is needed if they are to be of real use for investment purposes.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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