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Currently, foresight studies have been adapted to incorporate new techniques based on big data and machine learning (BDML), which has led to new approaches and conceptual changes regarding uncertainty and how to prospect future. The purpose of this study is to explore the effects of BDML on foresight practice and on conceptual changes in uncertainty.

The methodology is twofold: a bibliometric analysis of BDML-supported foresight studies collected from Scopus up to 2021 and a survey analysis with 479 foresight experts to gather opinions and expectations from academics and practitioners related to BDML in foresight studies. These approaches provide a comprehensive understanding of the current landscape and future paths of BDML-supported foresight research, using quantitative analysis of literature and qualitative input from experts in the field, and discuss potential theoretical changes related to uncertainty.

It is still incipient but increasing the number of prospective studies that use BDML techniques, which are often integrated into traditional foresight methodologies. Although it is expected that BDML will boost data analysis, there are concerns regarding possible biased results. Data literacy will be required from the foresight team to leverage the potential and mitigate risks. The article also discusses the extent to which BDML is expected to affect uncertainty, both theoretically and in foresight practice.

This study contributes to the conceptual debate on decision-making under uncertainty and raises public understanding on the opportunities and challenges of using BDML for foresight and decision-making.

Heavy fog results in low visibility, which increases the probability and severity of traffic crashes, and fog warning system is conducive to the reduction of crashes by conveying warning messages to drivers. This paper aims at exploring the effects of dynamic message sign (DMS) of fog warning system on driver performance.

First, a testing platform was established based on driving simulator and driver performance data under DMS were collected. The experiment route was consisted of three different zones (i.e. warning zone, transition zone and heavy fog zone), and mean speed, mean acceleration, mean jerk in the whole zone, ending speed in the warning zone and transition zone, maximum deceleration rate and mean speed reduction proportion in the transition zone and heavy fog zone were selected. Next, the one-way analysis of variance was applied to test the significant difference between the metrics. Besides, drivers’ subjective perception was also considered.

The results indicated that DMS is beneficial to reduce speed before drivers enter the heavy fog zone. Besides, when drivers enter a heavy fog zone, DMS can reduce the tension of drivers and make drivers operate more smoothly.

This paper provides a comprehensive approach for evaluating the effectiveness of the warning system in adverse conditions based on the driving simulation test platform. The method can be extended to the evaluation of vehicle-to-infrastructure technology in other special scenarios.