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Legislation plays a vital role in solving carbon emissions reduction and climate change issues. China began to implement a low-carbon economic policy in 2010, but the effect of the policy needs to be evaluated. Accordingly, this paper aims to discuss China’s low-carbon policy through exploring the following two questions, namely, whether the policy effect reaches the expected goal and whether the policy effects will balance economic development and emission reduction. Then, the paper puts forward suggestions for the improvement of China’s low-carbon policy.

This paper is organized around three distinct aspects of policy effect evaluation. This paper uses the synthetic control method to construct a policy effect evaluation model and conducts a quasi-natural experiment. The paper selects annual panel data from 2003 to 2015, which is selected from 33 provinces. A comparative analysis of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic development between Hubei Province and Liaoning Province.

The results reveal that the implementation of the low-carbon pilot province policy in 2010 has a significant impact on the emission reduction effect of Liaoning Province, but the impact on the emission reduction effect of Hubei Province is not significant. The carbon emission trading system implemented in 2012 has reduced the emission reductions in Hubei Province and Liaoning Province has achieved better emission reduction effects after the implementation of this policy. After the implementation of the policy, the economic development of Hubei Province has been improved, but it has not brought help to the economic development of Liaoning Province. These findings provide new insights into the use of an emissions trading system for improving economic development and ultimately facilitate the attainment of the broader goal of sustainability.

This paper proposes an innovative policy effect evaluation method by considering the status of unit gross domestic product, fixed asset investment in the energy industry, energy consumption, emission reduction technology innovation and other evaluation indicators. This paper contributes to broadening current methods of policy effect evaluation in China.