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1 – 5 of 5Javed Ahmad Bhat and Naresh Kumar Sharma
Among the many factors fueling the inflationary tendencies in an economy such as monetary shocks, structural shocks, demand shocks, external shocks and demographic changes, the…
Abstract
Purpose
Among the many factors fueling the inflationary tendencies in an economy such as monetary shocks, structural shocks, demand shocks, external shocks and demographic changes, the issue of inflation (INF) has also been found to be related to fiscal policy decisions of the government. The purpose of this study is to investigate the inflationary tendencies in India particularly from the fiscal point of view. The study also examines the influence of other potential determinants such as output growth rate, interest rate, trade-openness (TO) and oil price inflation (OPI).
Design/methodology/approach
To examine the dynamic nature of association between fiscal deficit and inflation, the study applies the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) test and Breitung and Candelon (2006) test to investigate the nature of causality in time and frequency domain frameworks. In addition, to scrutinize the possibility of a long-run association, that too from an asymmetric point of view, the study applies a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag model (NARDL) given by Shin et al. (2014). Finally, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to trace the traverse between disequilibrium position of short-run and subsequent long-run equilibrium of the system.
Findings
The authors found a unidirectional causality from fiscal deficit to inflation in case of time domain analysis and no feedback causality is reported. However, in case of frequency domain design, causality from fiscal deficit to inflation is found at low frequencies only, i.e. no short-run causality is established and hence dynamic nature of the relationship between the two variables is vindicated. Using NARDL model, the results document the existence of an asymmetric long-run direct association between fiscal deficit and inflation. However, an increase in deficit is found to be more inflationary and a decrease affects the inflation with a lower magnitude. The asymmetric impact of fiscal deficit on inflation can be explained through the existence of liquidity constraints, consumption-investment downward inflexibility and the downward price stickiness. Contractionary monetary policy action is found to be more effective than an expansionary one, signifying the asymmetric influence of monetary policy actions on the inflation of India. Similarly, in a supply-constrained economy with downward price rigidity, the authors found an asymmetric impact of output growth and output decline on inflation. As regard to the trade-openness, although an asymmetry is reported, the signs refute the validation of Romer (1993) hypothesis. Finally, the impact of oil price inflation on the inflationary pressures is according to theory but the coefficients are devoid of statistical significance.
Practical implications
These results indicate some important policy recommendations. Fiscal consolidation strategy should be executed in an appreciable manner to achieve the sound fiscal health and lower INF. The disciplined fiscal strategy would also be imperative for an effective monetary policy. Monetary authorities should possess noticeable credibility to manage the macroeconomic system and policy stances should be implemented according to requirements of the economy. Growth in output should be encouraged to have two-fold benefits to the economy – reducing INF on the one hand and fiscal deficits on the other.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the existing literature in the following ways. First, taking note of dynamic nature of the relationship between these two variables, the study examined the deficit INF nexus in a dynamic and asymmetric framework. The novelty of the study is ensured by the very nature of it is the first study in case of India to identify the fiscal INF in an asymmetric configuration. The authors applied a NARDL model, given by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the existence of any cointegrating relationship in an asymmetric paradigm. Second, the nature of causality between fiscal deficit and INF has been examined in a time domain and FD framework to portray precisely the casual interactions between these two variables in the short-run and long run. The study will, therefore, enrich the existing literature along the asymmetric lines.
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Isuru Udayangani Hewapathirana
This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.
Design/methodology/approach
Two sets of experiments are performed in this research. First, the predictive accuracy of three ML models, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN), is compared against the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model using historical tourist arrivals as features. Subsequently, the impact of incorporating social media data from TripAdvisor and Google Trends as additional features is investigated.
Findings
The findings reveal that the ML models generally outperform the SARIMA model, particularly from 2019 to 2021, when several unexpected events occurred in Sri Lanka. When integrating social media data, the RF model performs significantly better during most years, whereas the SVR model does not exhibit significant improvement. Although adding social media data to the ANN model does not yield superior forecasts, it exhibits proficiency in capturing data trends.
Practical implications
The findings offer substantial implications for the industry's growth and resilience, allowing stakeholders to make accurate data-driven decisions to navigate the unpredictable dynamics of Sri Lanka's tourism sector.
Originality/value
This study presents the first exploration of ML models and the integration of social media data for forecasting Sri Lankan tourist arrivals, contributing to the advancement of research in this domain.
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Maria Giovanna Confetto and Claudia Covucci
For companies that intend to respond to the modern conscious consumers' needs, a great competitive advantage is played on the ability to incorporate sustainability messages in…
Abstract
Purpose
For companies that intend to respond to the modern conscious consumers' needs, a great competitive advantage is played on the ability to incorporate sustainability messages in marketing communications. The aim of this paper is to address this important priority in the web context, building a semantic algorithm that allows content managers to evaluate the quality of sustainability web contents for search engines, considering the current semantic web development.
Design/methodology/approach
Following the Design Science (DS) methodological approach, the study develops the algorithm as an artefact capable of solving a practical problem and improving the operation of content managerial process.
Findings
The algorithm considers multiple factors of evaluation, grouped in three parameters: completeness, clarity and consistency. An applicability test of the algorithm was conducted on a sample of web pages of the Google blog on sustainability to highlight the correspondence between the established evaluation factors and those actually used by Google.
Practical implications
Studying content marketing for sustainability communication constitutes a new field of research that offers exciting opportunities. Writing sustainability contents in an effective way is a fundamental step to trigger stakeholder engagement mechanisms online. It could be a positive social engineering technique in the hands of marketers to make web users able to pursue sustainable development in their choices.
Originality/value
This is the first study that creates a theoretical connection between digital content marketing and sustainability communication focussing, especially, on the aspects of search engine optimization (SEO). The algorithm of “Sustainability-contents SEO” is the first operational software tool, with a regulatory nature, that is able to analyse the web contents, detecting the terms of the sustainability language and measuring the compliance to SEO requirements.
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Gustavo Barboza, Laura Gavinelli, Valerien Pede, Alice Mazzucchelli and Angelo Di Gregorio
The purpose is to detect the nonlinearity wholesale rice price formation process in Italy in the 1995–2017 period.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose is to detect the nonlinearity wholesale rice price formation process in Italy in the 1995–2017 period.
Design/methodology/approach
A nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type dynamics model is used.
Findings
Wholesale rice prices are significantly affected by variations in the international price of rice as well as variations in Arborio price.
Research limitations/implications
The limitations include policy recommendations for the production and commercialization of rice in Italy.
Practical implications
Understanding rice pricing dynamics and nonlinearity behavior is pivotal for the survival of the entire European and Italian rice supply chain.
Originality/value
In the extant literature, no evidence exists on non-linearity of rice prices in Italy.
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This paper aims to examine the distributional channel of monetary policy (MP) and evaluate how financial development (FD) affects the transmission mechanism from MP to income…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the distributional channel of monetary policy (MP) and evaluate how financial development (FD) affects the transmission mechanism from MP to income inequality.
Design/methodology/approach
The empirical investigation is implemented for 32 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2017, with the aid of vector autoregressions and a dynamic panel data model.
Findings
This study shows that MP has a significant impact on income inequality and the financial system plays an important role by dampening the dis-equalising effects of MP shocks. Both MP and FD directly exert redistributive effects. However, the financial system appears to wield the greatest impact and contribute more to the inequality dynamics.
Practical implications
The policy-relevant conclusion is that the financial system is crucial for the monetary transmission mechanism and the effects of MP actions. As the economy develops financially, it may require less movement in the policy position to achieve the desired policy outcome. Also, macroeconomic stabilisation policies may not be distributionally neutral and may have a role to play in averting longer-term increases in inequality.
Originality/value
Contrary to previous studies, this study indicates MP by the structural shocks to purge the MP stance of the issues of endogenous and anticipatory actions. A distinctive finding of this paper is that cross-country differences in monetary regimes and income explain a significant variation in the distributional impacts of monetary policy. Notwithstanding, the evidence shows that the strength of the transmission is more dependent on FD than the nature of the policy regime.
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