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US real interest rates are likely to return to trend

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Real interest rates -- which matter more for economic activity -- remain negative. Real rates have been declining for centuries. While they are currently negative, this could…

Differing demographic trends create chances and tests

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INTERNATIONAL

Global demographic trends and implications.

Short-term US productivity moves do not signal trends

Location:

UNITED STATES

The 2010s was the worst decade for productivity growth since the 1950s, capping living standards and the economy's growth potential. Productivity is the ratio of labour inputs to…

Lower rates will return, amplify and raise challenges

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INTERNATIONAL

The identification of the impact of wars and pandemics on interest rates has been difficult for lack of data. Recent research efforts have overcome this. Pandemics tend to push…

Lower workforce will impair global GDP trend growth

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INTERNATIONAL

Changing demography and socio-economic trends in the labour force.

Global trade and shipping will long remain subdued

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INTERNATIONAL

Trends in global trade and shipping.

Central American violence trends will diverge in 2015

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CENTRAL AMERICA

Diverging trends in Central American violence.

Women’s labour participation is rising but unevenly

Location:

INT

Beneath this short-term decline, however, lies a different long-term trend. Especially in developed economies, women’s workforce participation has steadily increased, partly due…

Chinese influence on African consumer trends will grow

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AFRICA

By 2025, an estimated two-thirds of African households will have discretionary income, significantly expanding the consumer pool. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa’s consumer market…

Global economic modelling requires rethink

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Methodological changes in economic forecasting.