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Central American violence trends will diverge in 2015

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Subject

Diverging trends in Central American violence.

Significance

Violence in El Salvador surged in 2014, with murders rising by 57% over 2013. This sharp rise was in contrast to trends in the other most violent Central American countries of Guatemala and Honduras, where the level of violence registered a slight decline in 2014.

Impacts

  • The effectiveness of Uruguay's marijuana legalisation will be key in Guatemala's decision on whether to propose such a policy.
  • Rising violence in El Salvador may spill into Guatemala and Honduras, affecting attempts to maintain declining rates of violent crime.
  • In the longer term, improving security in Guatemala and Honduras may reduce illegal immigration from these countries.
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