Central American violence trends will diverge in 2015

Subject

Diverging trends in Central American violence.

Significance

Violence in El Salvador surged in 2014, with murders rising by 57% over 2013. This sharp rise was in contrast to trends in the other most violent Central American countries of Guatemala and Honduras, where the level of violence registered a slight decline in 2014.

Impacts

• The effectiveness of Uruguay's marijuana legalisation will be key in Guatemala's decision on whether to propose such a policy.
• Rising violence in El Salvador may spill into Guatemala and Honduras, affecting attempts to maintain declining rates of violent crime.
• In the longer term, improving security in Guatemala and Honduras may reduce illegal immigration from these countries.