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The purpose of this paper is to discuss the evolving interpretations of the Covid crisis and its impact on hospitality and tourism.

Scenario planning paper following Framework Foresight about the Covid pandemic and its impact on hospitality and tourism. Research input was gathered from research reports in different disciplines and discussions with an expert panel.

The paper argues that hypothesized recovery scenarios were founded on hope and inaccurate extrapolations, and that hospitality and tourism may head for permanently lower volumes.

The paper contributes to the debate on tourism resilience and hopeful visions of a sustainable restart.

Instead of just focusing on direct pandemic impact and that of governmental measures, a third variable of consumer confidence will be decisive, and more important than expected by many initially, in future scenarios for hospitality and tourism.

The proposed scenarios that were designed with executive level industry input have so far proven more realistic than prevalent views of a swift recovery.

This paper aims to develop a conceptual framework on how the representativeness heuristic operates in the decision-making process. Specifically, the authors unbundle representativeness into its building blocks: search rule, stopping rule and decision rule. Furthermore, the focus is placed on how individual-level cognitive and behavioral factors, namely experience, intuition and overconfidence, affect the functioning of this heuristic.

From a theoretical standpoint, the authors build on dual-process theories and on the adaptive toolbox view from the “fast and frugal heuristics” perspective to develop an integrative conceptual framework that uncovers the mechanisms underlying the representativeness heuristic.

The authors’ conceptualization suggests that the search rule used in representativeness is based on analogical mapping from previous experience, the stopping rule is the representational stability of the analogs and the decision rule is the choice of the alternative upon which there is a convergence of representations and that exceeds the decision maker's aspiration level. In this framework, intuition may help the decision maker to cross-map potentially competing analogies, while overconfidence affects the search time and costs and alters both the stopping and the decision rule.

The authors develop a conceptual framework on representativeness, as one of the most common, though still poorly investigated, heuristics. The model offers a nuanced perspective that explores the cognitive and behavioral mechanisms that shape the use of representativeness in decision-making. The authors also discuss the theoretical implications of their model and outline future research avenues that may further contribute to enriching their understanding of decision-making processes.