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China’s South-east Asian defence ties face constraints

Location:

CHINA

South-east Asia is a key theatre in which Chinese-US strategic rivalry plays out. Beijing is counting on regional defence diplomacy to help it push back against the United States…

Wagner's influence in Africa may prove exaggerated

Location:

AFRICA

Notably, US intelligence accuses Wagner of efforts to destabilise Chad’s junta as well as broader regional ambitions of creating a “unified ‘confederation’ of African states”…

Israel’s Gaza war will spill over but not ignite Syria

Location:

SYRIA

Meanwhile, in the same atmosphere of regional escalation, the United States has also targeted sites in Syrian territory as it retaliates against Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups…

Ukraine cyberdefences will have impact beyond Russia

Location:

INT

A few Russian cyberattacks directed at Ukrainian satellite and mobile infrastructure have been disruptive, but many more have seemingly been thwarted. This indicates both that…

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

Location:

RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Canada faces a likelihood of increased Arctic activity

Location:

CANADA

The extent to which climatic conditions are opening the Arctic to shipping is illustrated by the prospect of Russian tankers that are not designed for Arctic conditions using the…

Beijing-Washington ties will be competition-based

Location:

CHINA/UNITED STATES

Despite some positive short-term outcomes, the two sides’ read-outs reflect the structural nature of their competition and the limits that this places on cooperation.

Gaza overspill is a possible risk to Balkan security

Location:

BALKANS

After an incident in late September that left one Kosovar police officer and three Serbian gunmen dead, the dispute over Kosovo’s sovereignty has become more dangerous, prompting…

New fighting in Congo heightens fears of escalation

Location:

CONGO-KINSHASA

Although the Congolese and Rwandan militaries are not officially involved yet, an escalation of the hostilities could unravel the limited diplomatic progress that has been made in…