Search results

This study aims to develop a model based on the financial variables for better accuracy of financial distress prediction on the sample of private French, Spanish and Italian firms. Thus, firms in financial difficulties could timely request for troubled debt restructuring (TDR) to continue business.

This study used a sample of 312 distressed and 312 non-distressed firms. It includes 60 French, 21 Spanish and 231 Italian firms in both distressed and non-distressed groups. The data are extracted from the ORBIS database. First, the authors develop a new model by replacing a ratio in the original Z”-Score model specifically for financial distress prediction and estimate its coefficients based on linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Second, using the modified Z”-Score model, the authors develop a firm TDR probability index for distressed and non-distressed firms based on the logistic regression model.

The new model (modified Z”-Score), specifically for financial distress prediction, represents higher prediction accuracy. Moreover, the firm TDR probability index accurately depicts the probabilities trend for both groups of distressed and non-distressed firms.

The findings of this study are conclusive. However, the sample size is small. Therefore, further studies could extend the application of the prediction model developed in this study to all the EU countries.

This study has important practical implications. This study responds to the EU directive call by developing the financial distress prediction model to allow debtors to do timely debt restructuring and thus continue their businesses. Therefore, this study could be useful for practitioners and firm stakeholders, such as banks and other creditors, and investors.

This study significantly contributes to the literature in several ways. First, this study develops a model for predicting financial distress based on the argument that corporate bankruptcy and financial distress are distinct events. However, the original Z”-Score model is intended for failure prediction. Moreover, the recent literature suggests modifying and extending the prediction models. Second, the new model is tested using a sample of firms from three countries that share similarities in their TDR laws.

Despite the widespread use and application of resilience, much uncertainty about the conceptualization and operationalization in the context of tourism destinations still exists. The purpose of this paper is to provide a conceptual elaboration on destination resilience and to introduce a model for an improved understanding of the concept.

Taking a conceptual research approach, this paper seeks to untangle the fuzziness surrounding the destination and resilience concept by providing a new interpretation that synthesizes theories and concepts from various academic disciplines. It analyses the current debate to derive theoretic baselines and conceptual elements that subsequently inform the development of a new “Destination Resilience Model”.

The contribution advances the debate by proposing three key themes for future resilience conceptualizations: (1) the value of an actor-centered and agency-based resilience perspective; (2) the importance of the dynamic nature of resilience and the (mis)use of measurement approaches; (3) the adoption of a dualistic resilience perspective distinguishing specified and general resilience. Building on these propositions, we introduce a conceptual model that innovatively links elements central to the concepts of destination and risk and combines different narratives of resilience.

The contribution advances the debate surrounding destination resilience by critically examining the conceptualization and operationalization of destination resilience within previous research and by subsequently proposing a “Destination Resilience Model” that picks up central element of the three new frontiers identified in the conceptually driven review. The innovative integration strengthens the comprehension of the resilience concept at destination level and supports building future capacities to manage immediate adverse impacts as well as novel and systemic risks.

All entrepreneurs interact simultaneously with multiple entrepreneurial contexts throughout their entrepreneurial journey. This conceptual paper has two central aims: (1) it synthesises the current literature on gender and entrepreneurship, and (2) it increases our understanding of how gender norms, contextual embeddedness and (in)equality mechanisms interact within contexts. Illustrative contexts that are discussed include entrepreneurship education, business networks and finance.

This conceptual paper draws upon extant literature to develop its proposed conceptual framework. It provides suggestions for systemic policy interventions as well as pointing to promising paths for future research.

A literature-generated conceptual framework is developed to explain and address the systemic barriers faced by opportunity-driven women as they engage in entrepreneurial contexts. This conceptual framework visualises the interplay between gender norms, contextual embeddedness and inequality mechanisms to explain systemic disparities. An extra dimension is integrated in the framework to account for the power of agency within women and with others, whereby agency, either individually or collectively, may disrupt and subvert the current interplay with inequality mechanisms.

This work advances understanding of the underrepresentation of women entrepreneurs. The paper offers a conceptual framework that provides policymakers with a useful tool to understand how to intervene and increase contextual embeddedness for all entrepreneurs. Additionally, this paper suggests moving beyond “fixing” women entrepreneurs and points towards disrupting systemic disparities to accomplish this contextual embeddedness for all entrepreneurs. By doing so, this research adds to academic knowledge on the construction and reconstruction of gender in the field of entrepreneurship.

We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.

We estimate a cross-sectional model of expected entropy that uses several common risk factors to predict idiosyncratic entropy.

We find a negative relationship between expected idiosyncratic entropy and returns. Specifically, the Carhart alpha of a low expected entropy portfolio exceeds the alpha of a high expected entropy portfolio by −2.37% per month. We also find a negative and significant price of expected idiosyncratic entropy risk using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

We propose a risk factor of idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

According to the Project Management Institute, 70% of projects fail globally. The causes of project failure in many instances can be identified as non-technical or behavioral in nature arising from interactions between participants. These intangible risks can emerge in any project setting but especially in project settings having diversity of cultures, customs, beliefs and traditions of various companies or countries. This paper provides an objective framework to address these intangible risks.

This paper presents a structured approach to identify, assess and manage intangible risks to enhance a project team’s ability to meet its objectives. The authors propose a user-friendly framework, Intangible Risk Assessment Methodology for Projects (IRAMP), to address these risks and the factors that cause them. Meta-network (e.g., a network of networks) simulation and established social network analysis (SNA) measures provide a quantitative assessment and ranking of causal events and their influence on the intangible behavior centric risks.

The proposed IRAMP and meta-network approach were utilized to examine the project delivery process of an international energy firm. Data were gathered using structured interviews, surveys and project team workshops. The use of the IRAMP to highlight intangible risk areas underpinned by the SNA measures led to changes in the company’s organizational structure to enhance project delivery effectiveness.

This work extends the existing project risk management literature by providing a novel objective approach to identify and quantify behavior centric intangible risks and the conditions that cause them to emerge.

Some controversial cases of bail-in in the emerging countries have raised the question about whether for those countries to have in place a regulation for the bail-in is appropriate or not. To assess appropriateness, this paper investigates bail-in credibility among investors, as crucial condition for the credibility’s smooth implementation, by measuring the yield spread between bailinable and non-bailinable bonds.

The authors compare the yield spread of banks located in emerging countries that have in place a framework for the bail-in to the comparable yield spread measured for banks located in emerging countries without such framework. The comparison permits to detect whether there is a significant difference between the two spreads, which would suggest that bail-in regulation has been deemed credible by market participants where enforced, or not, which in this case would signal a problem of credibility.

The authors' results point out a significantly higher yield spread for banks located in emerging countries that have adopted a framework for the bail-in of creditors. Bail-in regulation has, therefore, being deemed credible in the adopting emerging countries, thus ensuring a crucial condition for bail-in regulation's smooth application. The authors also point out bank size and country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth as crucial moderators of bail-in expectations of market participants that can guide the implementation of bail-in rules in emerging countries.

This paper contributes to the literature on the credibility of bail-in with a new perspective from the emerging countries.

This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear effects of bank regulation stringency on bank lending in 23 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1997–2017.

This study employs the dynamic panel threshold regression (PTR) model, which addresses endogeneity and heterogeneity problems within a nonlinear framework. It also uses indices of entry barriers, mixing of banking and commerce restrictions, activity restrictions and capital regulatory requirements from the updated databases of the World Bank's Bank Regulation and Supervision Surveys as measures of bank regulation.

The linearity test results support the existence of nonlinear effects in the relationship between bank lending and entry barriers or capital regulations in the selected SSA economies. The dynamic PTR estimation results reveal that bank lending responds positively when the stringency of entry barriers is below the threshold of 62.8%. However, once the stringency of entry barriers exceeds that threshold level, bank credit reacts negatively and significantly. By contrast, changes in capital regulation stringency do not affect bank lending, either below or above the obtained threshold value of 76.5%.

These results can help policymakers design bank regulatory measures that will promote the resilience and safety of the banking system but at the same time not bring unintended effects to bank lending.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the nonlinear effects of bank regulatory measures on bank lending using the dynamic PTR model and SSA context.

This study empirically tests the use of loan loss provisions (LLPs) for earnings and capital smoothing when emphasis is laid on banks' riskiness and adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) in Nigeria.

Annual bank-level data are hand-extracted between 2007 and 2017 from annual reports of a sample 16 deposit money banks (DMBs), and analysed using appropriate panel regression models subsequent to a number of diagnostic tests including heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and cross-sectional dependence. The use of both reported LLPs (TLLP) and discretionary LLPs (DLLP) for earnings and capital management is tested to advance the practice in the literature.

Generally, the study finds that Nigerian DMBs manage capital via LLPs, while mixed results are obtained for earnings smoothing. However, during IFRS, Nigerian DMBs' management of capital is identifiable with TLLP, while smoothing of earnings is peculiar to DLLP. Additionally, evidence of the improvement in loan loss reporting quality expected during IFRS for riskier Nigerian DMBs, could not be attained. This is corroborated by the study's findings of the use of both TLLP and DLLP for earnings and capital management during IFRS by DMBs in solvency crisis against the only use of TLLP to manage capital found for the entire period.

The evidential capital and earnings lopsidedness may subject Nigerian DMBs' going-concern to a lot of questions.

The study sets a foremost record in the empirical test of managerial opportunistic behaviour embedded in earnings and capital concurrently while accounting for loan losses by all categories of Nigerian DMBs in terms of riskiness, following accounting regime change.

In an era marked by heightened geopolitical uncertainties, such as international conflicts and economic instability, the dynamics of energy markets assume paramount importance. Our study delves into this complex backdrop, focusing on the intricate interplay the between traditional and emerging energy sectors.

This study analyzes the interconnections among green financial assets, renewable energy markets, the geopolitical risk index and cryptocurrency carbon emissions from December 19, 2017 to February 15, 2023. We investigate these relationships using a novel time-frequency connectedness approach and machine learning methodology.

Our findings reveal that green energy stocks, except the PBW, exhibit the highest net transmission of volatility, followed by COAL. In contrast, CARBON emerges as the primary net recipient of volatility, followed by fuel energy assets. The frequency decomposition results also indicate that the long-term components serve as the primary source of directional volatility spillover, suggesting that volatility transmission among green stocks and energy assets tends to occur over a more extended period. The SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP) results show that the green and fuel energy markets are negatively connected with geopolitical risks (GPRs). The results obtained through the SHAP analysis confirm the novel time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) frequency connectedness findings. The CARBON and PBW markets consistently experience spillover shocks from other markets in short and long-term horizons. The role of crude oil as a receiver or transmitter of shocks varies over time.

Green financial assets and clean energy play significant roles in the financial markets and reduce geopolitical risk. Our study employs a time-frequency connectedness approach to assess the interconnections among four markets' families: fuel, renewable energy, green stocks and carbon markets. We utilize the novel TVP-VAR approach, which allows for flexibility and enables us to measure net pairwise connectedness in both short and long-term horizons.

This research aims to evaluate the accuracy of several Value-at-Risk (VaR) approaches for determining the Minimum Capital Requirement (MCR) for Islamic stock markets during the pandemic health crisis.

This research evaluates the performance of numerous VaR models for computing the MCR for market risk in compliance with the Basel II and Basel II.5 guidelines for ten Islamic indices. Five models were applied—namely the RiskMetrics, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, denoted (GARCH), fractional integrated GARCH, denoted (FIGARCH), and SPLINE-GARCH approaches—under three innovations (normal (N), Student (St) and skewed-Student (Sk-t) and the extreme value theory (EVT).

The main findings of this empirical study reveal that (1) extreme value theory performs better for most indices during the market crisis and (2) VaR models under a normal distribution provide quite poor performance than models with fat-tailed innovations in terms of risk estimation.

Since the world is now undergoing the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study will not be able to assess performance of VaR models during the fourth wave of COVID-19.

The results suggest that the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) should enhance market discipline mechanisms, while central banks and national authorities should harmonize their regulatory frameworks in line with Basel/IFSB reform agenda.

Previous studies focused on evaluating market risk models using non-Islamic indexes. However, this research uses the Islamic indexes to analyze the VaR forecasting models. Besides, they tested the accuracy of VaR models based on traditional GARCH models, whereas the authors introduce the Spline GARCH developed by Engle and Rangel (2008). Finally, most studies have focus on the period of 2007–2008 financial crisis, while the authors investigate the issue of market risk quantification for several Islamic market equity during the sanitary crisis of COVID-19.