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Reform failure may strengthen centrist hopes in Chile

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CHILE

This followed the rejection of a left-wing proposal in September 2022 and marks the failure of efforts, initiated in late 2019 in response to widespread social protests, to…

Belarus will remain a dictatorship after Lukashenka

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BELARUS

Lukashenka has constructed a highly centralised and authoritarian system built on strong relations with Moscow. However, hopes for a more democratically inclined successor are…

Militia abuses may increase in Niger

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NIGER

This has sparked the growth of ethnic Zarma self-defence militias, known locally as ‘zankai’. These militias reflect broader communal self-defence efforts, often arising because…

Australia's Liberals are not testing the government

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AUSTRALIA

Labor was concerned about losing Dunkley ahead of next year’s general election. However, although the Liberal-Nationals Coalition, the main opposition grouping, managed to…

Hezbollah's fight will hamper Lebanese secularists

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LEBANON

This followed a cyberattack at the airport that promulgated a warning against Shia political-military movement Hezbollah and its escalation against Israel. The Forces of Change…

Prospects for Argentina in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Bond markets have responded positively to Milei’s victory, followed by the announcement that he would re-privatise state oil company YPF and other companies, but domestic exchange…

Afghan Taliban will look past UN in seeking engagement

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AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban were invited but refused to attend. There was no decision on appointing a UN special envoy for Afghanistan as mandated recently, although UN Secretary-General Antonio…

Israel will carefully calibrate its Iran retaliation

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ISRAEL

The assault caused almost no damage after a combined air defence including the United States and other allies intercepted nearly all the projectiles. Nonetheless, it was Iran’s…

Chilean government's pension 'win' will prove limited

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CHILE

However, its key provision -- an increase in the system’s defined contribution -- was rejected by the Lower House. The government will have to negotiate key parts of the bill…

Economic pressure will increase on Italian government

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ITALY

The budget will amount to EUR24bn (USD28bn), with a deficit of 4.3% of GDP to support tax cuts and increased spending. The higher-than-expected deficit comes as economic growth…