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The combined effects of several complex phenomena cause the deterioration of elements in steel hydraulic structures (SHSs) within the US lock system: corrosion, cracking and fatigue, impact and overloads. Predicting the future condition state of these structures by the use of current condition state inspection data can be achieved through the probabilistic chain deterioration model. The purpose of this study is to derive the transition probability matrix using final elements modeling of a miter gate.

If predicted accurately, this information would yield benefits in determining the need for rehabilitation or replacement of SHS. However, because of the complexity and difficulties on obtaining sufficient inspection data, there is a lack of available condition states needed to formulate proper transition probability matrices for each deterioration case.

This study focuses on using a three-dimensional explicit finite element analysis (FEM) of a miter gate that has been fully validated with experimental data to derive the transition probability matrix when the loss of flexural capacity in a corroded member is simulated.

New methodology using computational mechanics to derive the transition probability matrices of navigation steel structures has been presented.

The difficulty of deriving the transition probability matrix to perform a Markovian analysis increases when limited amount of inspection data is available. The used state of practice FEM to derive the transition probability matrix is not just necessary but also essential when the need for proper maintenance is required but limited amount of the condition of the structural system is unknown.

This paper aims to analyze the ex ante and ex post economic efficiency of the preventive agreement (concordato preventivo) or composition with creditors as defined by the Italian Bankruptcy Law. This study examines four possible outcomes of the procedure: homologation (confirmation); the degree of dissent/consent of creditors; the revocation, admissibility or inadmissibility; the declaration of the company bankruptcy in preventive agreement.

This paper uses data from 728 Italian companies which filed for preventive agreement in 2016. In reference to each of the four possible outcomes, this study applies nine logit regressions to analyze the effects of a series of efficiency variables ex ante (corporate-based drivers) and ex post (procedure-based drivers).

Results show the relevance of the debt structure, ownership structure and virtuous behavior, corporate governance and management systems, as well as effectivity of the court control on the preventive agreement outcome.

This paper draws on original data of bankruptcy in Italy and gives empirical evidence of the ex ante and ex post factors on the outcomes of the preventive agreement.