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1 – 10 of over 34000Analyses the empirical relation between the one‐month interest rate, the long‐term interest rate and the motgage rate in The Netherlands. To study the dynamic interactions between…
Abstract
Analyses the empirical relation between the one‐month interest rate, the long‐term interest rate and the motgage rate in The Netherlands. To study the dynamic interactions between these variables, vector autoregressive techniques are used. Concentrates on the question of whether the mortgage rate dynamics can correctly be described by a one‐factor interest rate model. One‐factor interest rate models allow mathematical derivations of deterministic equations to price interest rate derivatives. Finds, however, that a single factor does not correctly describe the interest rate term structure. Hence, to model the mortgage rate dynamics accurately more factors should be included.
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Jianfang Zhou, Jingjing Wang and Jianping Ding
After loan interest rate upper limit deregulation in October 2004, the financing environment in China changed dramatically, and the banks were eligible for risk compensation. The…
Abstract
Purpose
After loan interest rate upper limit deregulation in October 2004, the financing environment in China changed dramatically, and the banks were eligible for risk compensation. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the influence of the loan interest rate liberalization on firms’ loan maturity structure.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on Rajan's (1992) model, the authors constructed a trade-off model of how the banks choose long-term and short-term loans scales, and further analyzed banks’ loan term decisions under the loan interest rate upper limit deregulation or collateral cases. Then the authors used an unbalanced panel data set of 586 Chinese listed manufacturing companies and 9,376 observations during the period 1996-2011 to testify the theoretical conclusion. Furthermore, the authors studied the effect on firms with different characteristics of ownership or scale.
Findings
The results show that the loan interest rate liberalization significantly decreases the private companies’ reliance on short-term loans and increases sensitivity to interest rates of state-owned companies’ long-term loans. But the results also show that the companies’ ownership still plays a key role on the long-term loans availability. When monetary policy tightened, small companies still have to borrow short-term loans for long-term purposes. As the bank industry is still dominated by state-owned banks and the deposit interest rate has upper limits, the effect of the loan interest rate liberalization on easing long-term credit constraints is limited.
Originality/value
From a new perspective, the content and findings of this paper contribute to the study of the effect of the interest rate liberalization on China economy.
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Elyas Elyasiani and Iqbal Mansur
This study employs a multivariate GARCH model to investigate the relative sensitivities of the first and the second moment of bank stock return distribution to the short‐term and…
Abstract
This study employs a multivariate GARCH model to investigate the relative sensitivities of the first and the second moment of bank stock return distribution to the short‐term and long‐term interest rates and their respective volatilities. Three portfolios are formed representing the money center banks, large banks, and small banks, respectively. Estimation and testing of hypotheses are carried out for each of the three portfolios separately. The sample includes daily data over the 1988‐2000 period. Several hypotheses are tested within the multivariate GARCH specification. These include the hypotheses of: (i) insensitivity of bank stock return to the changes in the short‐term and long‐term interest rates, (ii) insensitivity of bank stock returns to the changes in the volatilities of short‐term and long‐term interest rates, and (iii) insensitivity of bank stock return volatility to the changes in the short‐term and long‐term interest rate volatilities. The findings indicate that short‐term and long‐term interest rates and their volatilities do exert significant and differential impacts on the return generation process of the three bank portfolios. The magnitudes and the direction of the effect are model‐specific namely that they depend on whether the short‐term or the long‐term interest rate level is included in the mean return equation. These findings have implications on bank hedging strategies against the interest rate risk, regulatory decisions concerning risk‐based capital requirement, and investor’s choice of a portfolio mix.
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Today's maturity pattern of interest rates contains an implicit market forecast of future short‐term rates. However, it is well known that these implied rates generally fail to…
Abstract
Today's maturity pattern of interest rates contains an implicit market forecast of future short‐term rates. However, it is well known that these implied rates generally fail to explain actual movements in short‐term rates. From two empirical propositions about movements of yield curves it follows that half of the time short‐term rates will move in the opposite direction from that forecasted implicitly by the market. Data comparing implied forward short‐term yields on US Treasury bills with actual yield movements fail to reject the hypothesis that the market's forecast will err in di‐rection half of the time. It follows that the direction of movement in short‐term rates is independent of the shape of the yield curve. Because implied forward rates lack forecasting content it would not be rational for investors to use them as market forecasts.
This paper aims to analyze Islamic rates of return, conventional interest rates in the Malaysian deposit markets, and Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate (KLIBOR) rates in the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyze Islamic rates of return, conventional interest rates in the Malaysian deposit markets, and Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate (KLIBOR) rates in the short-term money market from the view point of co-movement and transmission.
Design/methodology/approach
The non-stationary time series models such as cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied to analyze the daily data.
Findings
Islamic rates of return and conventional interest rates co-move in the Malaysian deposit market. The Islamic rates of return propel conventional interest rates in the three-, six-, and 12-month maturities. Islamic rates of return and conventional interest rates form a short-term money market with KLIBOR rates.
Research limitations/implications
The author analyzes econometrically the sample period from May 16, 2005 to January 12, 2012. This paper concentrates on the period after the development of Islamic banking in Malaysia.
Practical implications
Islamic and conventional deposit markets are competitive in Malaysia; in particular, the competition in the one-month deposit market is very keen. Islamic rates of return have more impact on the formation of short-term interest rates than conventional interest rates.
Originality/value
This paper makes three contributions to the related literatures. First, it uses daily data in the maturities of one month, three months, six months and 12 months for its analyses. Second, it uses the Granger causality method of Toda and Yamamoto to avoid the issue of the non-stationarity of the data. The results of the Granger causality tests in this paper are different from related literatures. Third, this paper focuses on the relationship of KLIBOR rates and Islamic rates of return, and of KLIBOR rates and conventional interest rates.
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Iqbal Mansur and Elyas Elyasiani
This study attempts to determine whether the level and volatility of interest rates affect the equity returns of commercial banks. Short‐term, intermediate‐term, and long‐term…
Abstract
This study attempts to determine whether the level and volatility of interest rates affect the equity returns of commercial banks. Short‐term, intermediate‐term, and long‐term interest rates are used. Volatility is defined as the conditional variance of respective interest rates and is generated by using the ARCH estimation procedure. Two sets of models are estimated. The basic models attempt to determine the effect of contemporaneous and lagged interest rate volatility on bank equity returns, while the extended models incorporate additional contemporaneous macroeconomic variables. Contemporaneous interest rate volatility has little explanatory power, while lagged volatilities do possess some explanatory power, with the lag length varying depending on the interest rate series used and the time period examined. The results from the extended model suggest that the long‐term interest rate affects bank equity returns more adversely than the short‐term or the intermediate‐term interest rates. The findings establish the relevance of incorporating macroeconomic variables and their volatilities in models determining bank equity returns.
John J. Siam and S.M. Khalid Nainar
The purpose of this paper is to document stylized features and market behaviour of the Canadian Bankers' Acceptance Futures (BAX) contract; and outlook for the BAX contract as the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to document stylized features and market behaviour of the Canadian Bankers' Acceptance Futures (BAX) contract; and outlook for the BAX contract as the dominant instrument to manage Canadian short‐term interest rate exposure.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper adopts GARCH methodology to model the time‐varying nature of the volatility of prices in the context of hedging and presents a time‐varying estimation of the hedge ratios between the BAX contract and major Canadian money market instruments.
Findings
The key finding is that the growth of the BAX Market hinges on the further development of the Canadian money market and its appeal to the international investor.
Originality/value
The paper demonstrates the suitability of the BAX contract as a tool in managing Canadian short‐term interest rate exposure for both domestic and international investors.
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Roseline N. Misati, Esman M. Nyamongo and Anne W. Kamau
This study aims to quantitatively measure the size and speed of monetary policy interest rate transmission to long‐term interest rates in Kenya.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to quantitatively measure the size and speed of monetary policy interest rate transmission to long‐term interest rates in Kenya.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses autoregressive distributed lag specification re‐parameterized as an error correction model and mean adjustment lag methods.
Findings
The study finds incomplete pass‐through of policy rates both in the short and the long run. The study also shows that it takes approximately between 11 months to two years for policy interest rate to be fully transmitted to long‐term rates.
Originality/value
The study is novel as it is the first attempt the authors are aware of that empirically investigates the interest rate pass‐through in Kenya using high‐frequency data. Measuring the speed and size of interest rate pass‐through provides policy makers with insights on how long it takes for a particular policy action to yield desired results on the real economy. The findings of this study will therefore inform policy makers of the effectiveness of their policy decisions and facilitate timely monetary policy actions.
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Despite balanced budget requirements, each year most states carry short term debt (STD) across fiscal years. Logit analysis results suggest structural fiscal stress causes states…
Abstract
Despite balanced budget requirements, each year most states carry short term debt (STD) across fiscal years. Logit analysis results suggest structural fiscal stress causes states to carry STD across fiscal years. This strategy may not be rational, because STD is a tool for smoothing short-term shortfalls, and not for correcting structural fiscal stress. Cross sectional time series analysis results suggest both structural and cyclical factors influence the amount of year end STD. Findings suggest STD amounts fluctuate as a rational temporary replacement for long-term debt, growing when long term rates rise and decreasing when they fall.
Jingya Li, Zongyuan Li and Ming-Hua Liu
The authors examine the interest rate pass-through in Hong Kong (HK) and Macao both in the long term and short term.
Abstract
Purpose
The authors examine the interest rate pass-through in Hong Kong (HK) and Macao both in the long term and short term.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use time series methodology, i.e. unit root, cointegration and error correction models.
Findings
The results show that in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) period, both the long-run and short-run interest rate pass-through from policy rates to prime rates have disappeared in Macao and are weakened significantly in Hong Kong. The long-term relationship between deposit rates and policy rates no longer exists in either market while the short-term relationship has been reduced significantly.
Research limitations/implications
The results indicate that the effectiveness of monetary policy in HK and Macao has been seriously undermined in the post-GFC period. New tools are needed in both regions.
Practical implications
Monetary policy transmission via bank interest rates in both HK and Macao are no longer effective after the outbreak of the GFC.
Social implications
Effort to stimulate the economy and/or control inflation will be hampered.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the impact of the GFC on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in HK and Macao.
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