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Following the issuance of the Renewable Energy Directive in 2009, the European Union (EU) is explicitly pushing for member states to cooperate with third countries to meet their EU 2020 targets. So far, no single joint project is planned or in place yet. This paper aims to look at the opportunities for and barriers to possible RE exports from North Africa into the EU through the concept of a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Thus, the SWOT for a possible implementation of Article 9 projects are analyzed using expert and stakeholder knowledge. A qualitative assessment was undertaken using data collected through one stakeholder workshop in North Africa, in-depth interviews and a qualitative literature review. The analysis was structured within a three-tier analyzing concept distinguishing between macro, micro and acceptance parameters.

From the SWOT analysis, some lessons are drawn, future possible measures are identified and conclusions for policymakers are discussed. The authors find that no easy solutions exist as most parameters can be both a strength and a weakness or a threat and an opportunity at the same time depending on future developments and the specific ideological perspective.

This paper provides new information and analysis of renewable energy sources projects in North Africa – application of the SWOT method on Article 9 cooperation projects – application of a three-tier analysis to cope with the complexity of the topic – taking into account often neglected socio-political aspects such as public acceptance.

This paper aims to analyse reasons for the absence of renewable electricity (RE) imports to the European Union, for which the authors develop a multi-level heuristic.

The heuristic covers three sequential acceptance levels: political attractiveness (macro-level), the “business case” (micro-level) and civil society perspectives (public discourse level).

Numerous factors on all three levels determine the success/demise of renewables trade. So far, trade has failed on the macro-level, because European policymakers perceive that targets can be achieved domestically with significant co-benefits and because exporter countries have rapidly increasing electricity demand, limiting the realisable exports. As policymakers deemed it unattractive, they have not implemented policy-supported business cases. Public opposition against trade has not been an issue as no concrete plans or projects have been proposed.

The authors show that the factors determining whether a RE programme is successful are plentiful and extend far beyond potential cost savings. This suggests that future research and the energy policy debate should better account for how cost savings are weighed against other policy aims and explicitly include the perspectives of investors and the public.

This paper adds the first holistic analysis of success/failure factors for RE trade to Europe. The three-level, sequential framework is new to energy policy analysis.