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Despite its crucial role in ensuring food safety, traceability remains underutilized by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), a vital component of China’s agricultural supply chain, thereby compromising the integrity of the supply chain traceability system. Therefore, this study sets out to explore the factors influencing SMEs’ adoption of traceability systems and the impact of these factors on SMEs’ intent to adopt such systems. Furthermore, the study presents a model to deepen understanding of system adoption in SMEs and provides a simulation demonstrating the evolutionary trajectory of adoption behavior.

This study considers the pivotal aspects of system adoption in SMEs, aiming to identify the influential factors through a grounded theory-based case study. Concurrently, it seeks to develop a mathematical model for SMEs’ adoption patterns and simulate the evolution of SMEs’ adoption behaviors using the Q-learning algorithm.

The adoption of traceability among SMEs is significantly influenced by factors such as system attributes, SMEs’ capability endowment, environmental factors and policy support and control. However, aspects of the SMEs’ capability endowment, specifically their learning rate and decay rate, have minimal impact on the adoption process. Furthermore, group pressure can expedite the attainment of an equilibrium state, wherein all SMEs adopt the system.

This study fills the existing knowledge gap about the adoption of traceability by SMEs in China’s agricultural supply chain. This study represents the pioneer study that identifies the factors influencing SMEs’ adoption and examines the effects of these factors on their traceability adoption, employing a multi-methodological approach that incorporates grounded theory, mathematical modeling and the Q-learning algorithm.