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Israel will carefully calibrate its Iran retaliation

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ISRAEL

The assault caused almost no damage after a combined air defence including the United States and other allies intercepted nearly all the projectiles. Nonetheless, it was Iran’s…

Ships’ safety off Yemen will depend on US-UK air power

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INTERNATIONAL

A US-led coalition has struck targets in Yemen in response to uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) and missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, targeting both commercial…

North Korea may goad South Korea into limited conflict

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NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

Pyongyang claims to have tested a new nuclear-capable underwater drone -- Seoul is sceptical -- and North Korea’s foreign minister has visited Moscow. South Korean President Yoon…

Kurds will try to keep Iraq out of the Gaza conflict

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IRAQ

The Gaza conflict has led to a resurgence of attacks by Iran-backed armed groups on US forces, breaking the earlier unofficial truce. Some of those attacks have targeted bases in…

EU will be assertive with new trade defence tools

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EU

First cases pursued under the FSR show it could be one of the most far-reaching of the strategic autonomy measures introduced under this Commission. One Chinese company has…

Baku will resist a quick peace deal with Armenia

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ARMENIA

The latest round of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Geneva on March 22 ended without any concrete progress on negotiations over a bilateral peace agreement. The meeting…

Rupture of accord will raise Seoul-Pyongyang tensions

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NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

An unrelated ballistic missile test shortly afterwards failed. Seoul responded by partially suspending September 2018’s North-South military agreement -- whereupon Pyongyang…

Prigozhin’s failed mutiny will weaken Putin

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RUSSIA

Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin sought the ouster of the defence minister and army chief; there was a threat of fighting in Moscow. President Vladimir Putin initially threatened…

Trump is already fighting the US general election

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UNITED STATES

Despite recent questions about his eligibility, Trump appears set to secure the Republican presidential nomination by early March. With President Joe Biden’s approval rating…

Hamas conflict will heighten vigilance in Seoul

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NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

These include border surveillance, human intelligence and Pyongyang-Hamas links. Joint live-fire exercises with US forces on October 25-27 were billed as targeting “large-scale…