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Article
Publication date: 7 February 2022

Muralidhar Vaman Kamath, Shrilaxmi Prashanth, Mithesh Kumar and Adithya Tantri

The compressive strength of concrete depends on many interdependent parameters; its exact prediction is not that simple because of complex processes involved in strength…

Abstract

Purpose

The compressive strength of concrete depends on many interdependent parameters; its exact prediction is not that simple because of complex processes involved in strength development. This study aims to predict the compressive strength of normal concrete and high-performance concrete using four datasets.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, five established individual Machine Learning (ML) regression models have been compared: Decision Regression Tree, Random Forest Regression, Lasso Regression, Ridge Regression and Multiple-Linear regression. Four datasets were studied, two of which are previous research datasets, and two datasets are from the sophisticated lab using five established individual ML regression models.

Findings

The five statistical indicators like coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error, root mean squared error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and mean absolute percentage error have been used to compare the performance of the models. The models are further compared using statistical indicators with previous studies. Lastly, to understand the variable effect of the predictor, the sensitivity and parametric analysis were carried out to find the performance of the variable.

Originality/value

The findings of this paper will allow readers to understand the factors involved in identifying the machine learning models and concrete datasets. In so doing, we hope that this research advances the toolset needed to predict compressive strength.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology , vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 April 2024

Seyed Abbas Rajaei, Afshin Mottaghi, Hussein Elhaei Sahar and Behnaz Bahadori

This study aims to investigate the spatial distribution of housing prices and identify the affecting factors (independent variable) on the cost of residential units (dependent…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the spatial distribution of housing prices and identify the affecting factors (independent variable) on the cost of residential units (dependent variable).

Design/methodology/approach

The method of the present study is descriptive-analytical and has an applied purpose. The used statistical population in this study is the residential units’ price in Tehran in 2021. For this purpose, the average per square meter of residential units in the city neighborhoods was entered in the geographical information system. Two techniques of ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression have been used to analyze housing prices and modeling. Then, the results of the ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression models were compared by using the housing price interpolation map predicted in each model and the accurate housing price interpolation map.

Findings

Based on the results, the ordinary least squares regression model has poorly modeled housing prices in the study area. The results of the geographically weighted regression model show that the variables (access rate to sports fields, distance from gas station and water station) have a direct and significant effect. Still, the variable (distance from fault) has a non-significant impact on increasing housing prices at a city level. In addition, to identify the affecting variables of housing prices, the results confirm the desirability of the geographically weighted regression technique in terms of accuracy compared to the ordinary least squares regression technique in explaining housing prices. The results of this study indicate that the housing prices in Tehran are affected by the access level to urban services and facilities.

Originality/value

Identifying factors affecting housing prices helps create sustainable housing in Tehran. Building sustainable housing represents spending less energy during the construction process together with the utilization phase, which ultimately provides housing at an acceptable price for all income deciles. In housing construction, the more you consider the sustainable housing principles, the more sustainable housing you provide and you take a step toward sustainable development. Therefore, sustainable housing is an important planning factor for local authorities and developers. As a result, it is necessary to institutionalize an integrated vision based on the concepts of sustainable development in the field of housing in the Tehran metropolis.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 March 2024

Chinthaka Niroshan Atapattu, Niluka Domingo and Monty Sutrisna

The current estimation practice in construction projects greatly needs upgrading, as there has been no improvement in the cost overrun issue over the past 70 years. The purpose of…

Abstract

Purpose

The current estimation practice in construction projects greatly needs upgrading, as there has been no improvement in the cost overrun issue over the past 70 years. The purpose of this research was to develop a new multiple regression analysis (MRA)-based model to forecast the final cost of road projects at the pre-design stage using data from 43 projects in New Zealand (NZ).

Design/methodology/approach

The research used the case study of 43 completed road projects in NZ. Document analysis was conducted to collect data, and statistical tests were used for model development and analysis.

Findings

Eight models were developed, and all models achieved the required F statistics and met the regression assumptions. The models’ mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was between 21.25% and 22.77%. The model with the lowest MAPE comprised the road length and width, number of bridges, pavement area, cut and fill area, preliminary cost and cost indices change.

Research limitations/implications

The model is based on road projects in NZ. However, it was designed to be able to adapt to other contexts. The findings suggest that the model can be used to improve traditional conceptual estimating methods. Past project data is often stored by the project team but rarely used for analysing and forecasting purposes. This research emphasises that past data can be effectively used to predict the project cost at the pre-design stage with limited information.

Originality/value

No research was conducted to adopt cost modelling techniques into the conceptual estimation practice in the NZ construction industry.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 May 2022

Turki I. Al-Suleiman (Obaidat) and Yazan Ibrahim Alatoom

The purpose of this paper was to study the possibility of using smartphone roughness measurements for developing pavement roughness regression models as a function of pavement…

203

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper was to study the possibility of using smartphone roughness measurements for developing pavement roughness regression models as a function of pavement age, traffic loading and traffic volume variables. Also, the effects of patching and pavement distresses on pavement roughness were investigated. The work focused on establishing pavement roughness prediction models and applying these models to pavement management systems (PMS) to help decision-makers choose the best maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) options by using cost-effective methods.

Design/methodology/approach

Signal processing techniques including filtering and processing techniques were used to obtain the International Roughness Index (IRI) from raw acceleration data collected from smartphone accelerometer sensors. The obtained IRI values were inputted as a dependent variable in analytical regression models as well as several independent variables with proper transformations.

Findings

According to the study results, several regression models were developed with a big variation in the coefficients of determination (R2). However, the best models included pavement age, accumulated traffic volume (∑TV) and construction quality factor (CQF) with R2 equal to 0.63. It was also found that the effects of pavement distresses and patching was significant at a-level < 0.05. The patching effect on pavement roughness was found higher than the effect of other pavement distresses.

Practical implications

The presented results and methods in this paper could be used in the future predictions of pavement roughness and help the decision-makers to estimate M&R needs. The work focused on establishing IRI prediction models and applying these models to the PMS to help decision-makers choose the best M & R options.

Originality/value

To develop sound pavement roughness models, it is essential to collect roughness data using automated procedures. However, applying these procedures in developing countries faces several difficulties such as the high price and operation costs of roughness equipment and lack of technical experience. The advantage of using IRI values taken from smartphones is that the roughness evaluation survey may be expanded to cover the full road network at a cheaper cost than with automated instruments. Therefore, if the roughness survey covers more roads, the prediction model’s accuracy will be improved.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, vol. 22 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 June 2024

Bingzi Jin and Xiaojie Xu

The purpose of this study is to make property price forecasts for the Chinese housing market that has grown rapidly in the last 10 years, which is an important concern for both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to make property price forecasts for the Chinese housing market that has grown rapidly in the last 10 years, which is an important concern for both government and investors.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines Gaussian process regressions with different kernels and basis functions for monthly pre-owned housing price index estimates for ten major Chinese cities from March 2012 to May 2020. The authors do this by using Bayesian optimizations and cross-validation.

Findings

The ten price indices from June 2019 to May 2020 are accurately predicted out-of-sample by the established models, which have relative root mean square errors ranging from 0.0458% to 0.3035% and correlation coefficients ranging from 93.9160% to 99.9653%.

Originality/value

The results might be applied separately or in conjunction with other forecasts to develop hypotheses regarding the patterns in the pre-owned residential real estate price index and conduct further policy research.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 August 2024

Tang Ting, Md Aslam Mia, Md Imran Hossain and Khaw Khai Wah

Given the growing emphasis among scholars, practitioners and policymakers on financial sustainability, this study aims to explore the applicability of machine learning techniques…

Abstract

Purpose

Given the growing emphasis among scholars, practitioners and policymakers on financial sustainability, this study aims to explore the applicability of machine learning techniques in predicting the financial performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs).

Design/methodology/approach

This study gathered 9,059 firm-year observations spanning from 2003 to 2018 from the World Bank's Mix Market database. To predict the financial performance of MFIs, the authors applied a range of machine learning regression approaches to both training and testing data sets. These included linear regression, partial least squares, linear regression with stepwise selection, elastic net, random forest, quantile random forest, Bayesian ridge regression, K-Nearest Neighbors and support vector regression. All models were implemented using Python.

Findings

The findings revealed the random forest model as the most suitable choice, outperforming the other models considered. The effectiveness of the random forest model varied depending on specific scenarios, particularly the balance between training and testing data set proportions. More importantly, the results identified operational self-sufficiency as the most critical factor influencing the financial performance of MFIs.

Research limitations/implications

This study leveraged machine learning on a well-defined data set to identify the factors predicting the financial performance of MFIs. These insights offer valuable guidance for MFIs aiming to predict their long-term financial sustainability. Investors and donors can also use these findings to make informed decisions when selecting their potential recipients. Furthermore, practitioners and policymakers can use these findings to identify potential financial performance vulnerabilities.

Originality/value

This study stands out by using a global data set to investigate the best model for predicting the financial performance of MFIs, a relatively scarce subject in the existing microfinance literature. Moreover, it uses advanced machine learning techniques to gain a deeper understanding of the factors affecting the financial performance of MFIs.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 December 2022

B.V. Binoy, M.A. Naseer and P.P. Anil Kumar

Land value varies at a micro level depending on the location’s economic, geographical and political determinants. The purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive…

Abstract

Purpose

Land value varies at a micro level depending on the location’s economic, geographical and political determinants. The purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive assessment of the determinants affecting land value in the Indian city of Thiruvananthapuram in the state of Kerala.

Design/methodology/approach

The global influence of the identified 20 explanatory variables on land value is measured using the traditional hedonic price modeling approach. The localized spatial variations of the influencing parameters are examined using the non-parametric regression method, geographically weighted regression. This study used advertised land value prices collected from Web sources and screened through field surveys.

Findings

Global regression results indicate that access to transportation facilities, commercial establishments, crime sources, wetland classification and disaster history has the strongest influence on land value in the study area. Local regression results demonstrate that the factors influencing land value are not stationary in the study area. Most variables have a different influence in Kazhakootam and the residential areas than in the central business district region.

Originality/value

This study confirms findings from previous studies and provides additional evidence in the spatial dynamics of land value creation. It is to be noted that advanced modeling approaches used in the research have not received much attention in Indian property valuation studies. The outcomes of this study have important implications for the property value fixation of urban Kerala. The regional variation of land value within an urban agglomeration shows the need for a localized method for land value calculation.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 July 2024

Saleh Abu Dabous, Ahmad Alzghoul and Fakhariya Ibrahim

Prediction models are essential tools for transportation agencies to forecast the condition of bridge decks based on available data, and artificial intelligence is paramount for…

Abstract

Purpose

Prediction models are essential tools for transportation agencies to forecast the condition of bridge decks based on available data, and artificial intelligence is paramount for this purpose. This study aims at proposing a bridge deck condition prediction model by assessing various classification and regression algorithms.

Design/methodology/approach

The 2019 National Bridge Inventory database is considered for model development. Eight different feature selection techniques, along with their mean and frequency, are used to identify the critical features influencing deck condition ratings. Thereafter, four regression and four classification algorithms are applied to predict condition ratings based on the selected features, and their performances are evaluated and compared with respect to the mean absolute error (MAE).

Findings

Classification algorithms outperform regression algorithms in predicting deck condition ratings. Due to its minimal MAE (0.369), the random forest classifier with eleven features is recommended as the preferred condition prediction model. The identified dominant features are superstructure condition, age, structural evaluation, substructure condition, inventory rating, maximum span length, deck area, average daily traffic, operating rating, deck width, and the number of spans.

Practical implications

The proposed bridge deck condition prediction model offers a valuable tool for transportation agencies to plan maintenance and resource allocation efficiently, ultimately improving bridge safety and serviceability.

Originality/value

This study provides a detailed framework for applying machine learning in bridge condition prediction that applies to any bridge inventory database. Moreover, it uses a comprehensive dataset encompassing an entire region, broadening the model’s applicability and representation.

Details

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-6099

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 June 2024

Gopinath Selvam, Mohan Kamalanandhini, Muthuvel Velpandian and Sheema Shah

The construction projects are highly subjected to uncertainties, which result in overruns in time and cost. Realistic estimates of workforce and duration are imperative for…

Abstract

Purpose

The construction projects are highly subjected to uncertainties, which result in overruns in time and cost. Realistic estimates of workforce and duration are imperative for construction projects to attain their intended objectives. The aim of this study is to provide accurate labor and duration estimates for the construction projects, considering actual uncertainties.

Design/methodology/approach

The dataset was formulated from the information collected from 186 construction projects through direct interviews, group discussions and questionnaire methods. The actual uncertainties and exposure conditions of construction activities were recorded. The data were verified with the standard guideline to remove the outliers. The prediction model was developed using support vector regression (SVR), a machine learning (ML) method. The performance was evaluated using the widely adopted regression metrics. Further, the cross validation was made with the visualization of residuals and predicted errors, ridge regression with transformed target distribution and a Gaussian Naive Bayes (NB) regressor.

Findings

The prediction models predicted the duration and labor requirements with the consideration of actual uncertainties. The residual plot indicated the appropriate use of SVR to develop the prediction model. The duration (DC) and resource constraint (RC) prediction models obtained 80 and 82% accuracy, respectively. Besides, the developed model obtained better accuracy for the training and test scores than the Gaussian NB regressor. Further, the range of the explained variance score and R2 was from 0.95 to 0.97, indicating better efficiency compared with other prediction models.

Research limitations/implications

The researchers will utilize the research findings to estimate the duration and labor requirements under uncertain conditions and further improve the construction project management practices.

Practical implications

The research findings will enable industry practitioners to accurately estimate the duration and labor requirements, considering historical uncertain conditions. A precise estimation of resources will ensure the attainment of the intended project outcomes.

Social implications

Delays in construction projects will be reduced by implementing the research findings, which significantly ensures the effective utilization of resources and attainment of other economic benefits. The policymakers will develop a guideline to develop a database to collect the uncertainties of the construction projects and relatively estimate the resource requirements.

Originality/value

This is the first study to consider the actual uncertainties of construction projects to develop RC and DC prediction models. The developed prediction models accurately estimate the duration and labor requirements with minimal computational time. The industry practitioners will be able to accurately estimate the duration and labor requirements using the developed models.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 July 2024

Felipe Miguel Valdez Gómez de la Torre and Xuwei Chen

This paper aims to compare the efficiency of spatial and nonspatial hedonic price models in capturing housing submarkets dynamics for cities in developing countries. This study…

28

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to compare the efficiency of spatial and nonspatial hedonic price models in capturing housing submarkets dynamics for cities in developing countries. This study expects to contribute to a better understanding of the housing price determinants from both nonspatial and spatial perspectives. In addition, this paper fills a gap in the literature on the study of housing prices from a spatial perspective in Latin American cities.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a comparative analysis between an ordinary least squares regression and a geographical weighted regression, GWR. The study also assesses the performance of two distinct data sources: the city’s cadastral records and a real estate sales web portal.

Findings

The results suggest that compared to the traditional regression model, the spatial regression models are more effective at capturing housing market variations on a fine scale. Moreover, they reveal interesting findings on the spatial varying, sometimes contradictory effects of some housing attributes on housing prices in different areas of the city, suggesting the potential impact from segregation.

Research limitations/implications

The availability of data on housing prices and characteristics in Latin American cities is fragmented and complex. The level of detail, granularity and coverage is not consistent over time. For this reason, this study combines and compares data sets from official and unofficial sources in an effort to close this gap. Likewise, the socioeconomic variables that come from the census must be carefully analyzed, knowing the historical context in which they were constructed, what they represent and their interpretation.

Practical implications

This paper suggests that despite the improvement on the spatial models, the selection of a specific one should always be based on the diagnosis of it as it highly depends on the data used and the objectives of the study.

Originality/value

This study enriches the limited body of literature on spatial hedonic price models of housing in Latin American cities. It also shed light on the importance of spatial approaches to identify complex housing submarkets.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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