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Loan default risk or credit risk evaluation is important to financial institutions which provide loans to businesses and individuals. Loans carry the risk of being defaulted. To understand the risk levels of credit users (corporations and individuals), credit providers (bankers) normally collect vast amounts of information on borrowers. Statistical predictive analytic techniques can be used to analyse or to determine the risk levels involved in loans. This paper aims to address the question of default prediction of short-term loans for a Tunisian commercial bank.

The authors have used a database of 924 files of credits granted to industrial Tunisian companies by a commercial bank in the years 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. The naive Bayesian classifier algorithm was used, and the results show that the good classification rate is of the order of 63.85 per cent. The default probability is explained by the variables measuring working capital, leverage, solvency, profitability and cash flow indicators.

The results of the validation test show that the good classification rate is of the order of 58.66 per cent; nevertheless, the error types I and II remain relatively high at 42.42 and 40.47 per cent, respectively. A receiver operating characteristic curve is plotted to evaluate the performance of the model. The result shows that the area under the curve criterion is of the order of 69 per cent.

The paper highlights the fact that the Tunisian central bank obliged all commercial banks to conduct a survey study to collect qualitative data for better credit notation of the borrowers.

El riesgo de incumplimiento de préstamos o la evaluación del riesgo de crédito es importante para las instituciones financieras que otorgan préstamos a empresas e individuos. Existe el riesgo de que el pago de préstamos no se cumpla. Para entender los niveles de riesgo de los usuarios de crédito (corporaciones e individuos), los proveedores de crédito (banqueros) normalmente recogen gran cantidad de información sobre los prestatarios. Las técnicas analíticas predictivas estadísticas pueden utilizarse para analizar o determinar los niveles de riesgo involucrados en los préstamos. En este artículo abordamos la cuestión de la predicción por defecto de los préstamos a corto plazo para un banco comercial tunecino.

Utilizamos una base de datos de 924 archivos de créditos concedidos a empresas industriales tunecinas por un banco comercial en 2003, 2004, 2005 y 2006. El algoritmo bayesiano de clasificadores se llevó a cabo y los resultados muestran que la tasa de clasificación buena es del orden del 63.85%. La probabilidad de incumplimiento se explica por las variables que miden el capital de trabajo, el apalancamiento, la solvencia, la rentabilidad y los indicadores de flujo de efectivo.

Los resultados de la prueba de validación muestran que la buena tasa de clasificación es del orden de 58.66% ; sin embargo, los errores tipo I y II permanecen relativamente altos, siendo de 42.42% y 40.47%, respectivamente. Se traza una curva ROC para evaluar el rendimiento del modelo. El resultado muestra que el criterio de área bajo curva (AUC, por sus siglas en inglés) es del orden del 69%.

El documento destaca el hecho de que el Banco Central tunecino obligó a todas las entidades del sector llevar a cabo un estudio de encuesta para recopilar datos cualitativos para un mejor registro de crédito de los prestatarios.

Curva ROC, Evaluación de riesgos, Riesgo de incumplimiento, Sector bancario, Algoritmo clasificador bayesiano.

Artículo de investigación

To proactively draw efficient maintenance plans, road agencies should be able to forecast main road distress parameters, such as cracking, rutting, deflection and International Roughness Index (IRI). Nonetheless, the behavior of those parameters throughout pavement life cycles is associated with high uncertainty, resulting from various interrelated factors that fluctuate over time. This study aims to propose the use of dynamic Bayesian belief networks for the development of time-series prediction models to probabilistically forecast road distress parameters.

While Bayesian belief network (BBN) has the merit of capturing uncertainty associated with variables in a domain, dynamic BBNs, in particular, are deemed ideal for forecasting road distress over time due to its Markovian and invariant transition probability properties. Four dynamic BBN models are developed to represent rutting, deflection, cracking and IRI, using pavement data collected from 32 major road sections in the United Arab Emirates between 2013 and 2019. Those models are based on several factors affecting pavement deterioration, which are classified into three categories traffic factors, environmental factors and road-specific factors.

The four developed performance prediction models achieved an overall precision and reliability rate of over 80%.

The proposed approach provides flexibility to illustrate road conditions under various scenarios, which is beneficial for pavement maintainers in obtaining a realistic representation of expected future road conditions, where maintenance efforts could be prioritized and optimized.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the reliability and validity of the Abbreviated Mental Test (AMT) and the agreement with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE).

This cross-sectional study included 446 older adults who were recruited by cluster sampling from 200,481 adults aged more than 60 years. For each participant, the AMT was administered by village health volunteers and, on a separate day, by a trained professional who also administered the MMSE. Descriptive statistics, Bland and Altman levels of agreement, and Receiver Operator Curves (ROCs) were used to analyze data.

Administration of the AMT by village health volunteers during the annual health screening found cognitive impairment in only 1.12% of the sample. When the AMT was given to these same individuals by trained professionals, the rate of cognitive impairment was almost 24 times greater. Two items in the Thai AMT may require modification due to markedly elevated failure rates. At the cut score of 8, the sensitivity and specificity of the AMT relative to the MMSE were moderate (78.83 and 66.67%, respectively). The degree of agreement between AMT and MMSE was 0.49 (p < 0.001) and the correlation between the difference scores and the mean is exceptionally low (0.048).

Reliable and valid cognitive screening assessment requires the administrator to be well trained and the tools to be appropriate for the population. Although AMT is short and easy for a nonprofessional to administer, some items were not suitable due to construct validity and contextual issues.

In the context of the journey toward digital transformation and the realization of a fully connected factory, concepts such as data science, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and even predictive models emerge as indispensable pillars. Given the relevance of these topics, the present study focused on the analysis of customer complaint data, employing ML techniques to anticipate complaint accountability. The primary objective was to enhance data accessibility, harnessing the potential of ML models to optimize the complaint handling process and thereby positively contribute to data-driven decision-making. This approach aimed not only to reduce the number of units to be analyzed and customer response time but also to underscore the pressing need for a paradigm shift in quality management. The application of AI techniques sought to enhance not only the efficiency of the complaint handling process and data accessibility but also to demonstrate how the integration of these innovative approaches could profoundly transform the way quality is conceived and managed within organizations.

To conduct this study, real customer complaint data from an automotive company was utilized. Our main objective was to highlight the importance of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in the context of quality. To achieve this, we adopted a methodology consisting of 10 distinct phases: business analysis and understanding; project plan definition; sample definition; data exploration; data processing and pre-processing; feature selection; acquisition of predictive models; evaluation of the models; presentation of the results; and implementation. This methodology was adapted from data mining methodologies referenced in the literature, taking into account the specific reality of the company under study. This ensured that the obtained results were applicable and replicable across different fields, thereby strengthening the relevance and generalizability of our research findings.

The achieved results not only demonstrated the ability of ML models to predict complaint accountability with an accuracy of 64%, but also underscored the significance of the adopted approach within the context of Quality 4.0 (Q4.0). This study served as a proof of concept in complaint analysis, enabling process automation and the development of a guide applicable across various areas of the company. The successful integration of AI techniques and Q4.0 principles highlighted the pressing need to apply concepts of digitization and artificial intelligence in quality management. Furthermore, it emphasized the critical importance of data, its organization, analysis and availability in driving digital transformation and enhancing operational efficiency across all company domains. In summary, this work not only showcased the advancements achieved through ML application but also emphasized the pivotal role of data and digitization in the ongoing evolution of Quality 4.0.

This study presents a significant contribution by exploring complaint data within the organization, an area lacking investigation in real-world contexts, particularly focusing on practical applications. The development of standardized processes for data handling and the application of predictions for classification models not only demonstrated the viability of this approach but also provided a valuable proof of concept for the company. Most importantly, this work was designed to be replicable in other areas of the factory, serving as a fundamental basis for the company’s data scientists. Until then, limited data access and lack of automation in its treatment and analysis represented significant challenges. In the context of Quality 4.0, this study highlights not only the immediate advantages for decision-making and predicting complaint outcomes but also the long-term benefits, including clearer and standardized processes, data-driven decision-making and improved analysis time. Thus, this study not only underscores the importance of data and the application of AI techniques in the era of quality but also fills a knowledge gap by providing an innovative and replicable approach to complaint analysis within the organization. In terms of originality, this article stands out for addressing an underexplored area and providing a tangible and applicable solution for the company, highlighting the intrinsic value of aligning quality with AI and digitization.

This paper aims to assess the application of seven statistical and data mining techniques to second-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) for bank performance.

Different statistical and data mining techniques are used to second-stage DEA for bank performance as a part of an attempt to produce a powerful model for bank performance with effective predictive ability. The projected data mining tools are classification and regression trees (CART), conditional inference trees (CIT), random forest based on CART and CIT, bagging, artificial neural networks and their statistical counterpart, logistic regression.

The results showed that random forests and bagging outperform other methods in terms of predictive power.

This is the first study to assess the impact of environmental factors on banking performance in Middle East and North Africa countries.

The first step toward developing an automated construction workers performance monitoring system is to initially establish a complete and competent activity recognition solution, which is still lacking. This study aims to propose a novel approach of using labor physiological data collected through wearable sensors as means of remote and automatic activity recognition.

A pilot study is conducted against three pre-fabrication stone construction workers throughout three full working shifts to test the ability of automatically recognizing the type of activities they perform in-site through their lively measured physiological signals (i.e. blood volume pulse, respiration rate, heart rate, galvanic skin response and skin temperature). The physiological data are broadcasted from wearable sensors to a tablet application developed for this particular purpose, and are therefore used to train and assess the performance of various machine-learning classifiers.

A promising result of up to 88% accuracy level for activity recognition was achieved by using an artificial neural network classifier. Nonetheless, special care needs to be taken for some activities that evoke similar physiological patterns. It is expected that blending this method with other currently developed camera-based or kinetic-based methods would yield higher activity recognition accuracy levels.

The proposed method complements previously proposed labor tracking methods that focused on monitoring labor trajectories and postures, by using additional rich source of information from labors physiology, for real-time and remote activity recognition. Ultimately, this paves for an automated and comprehensive solution with which construction managers could monitor, control and collect rich real-time data about workers performance remotely.

The presence of green spaces plays a vital role in promoting urban sustainability. Urban green parks (UGPs) help create sustainable cities while providing fundamental ecological functions. However, rapid urbanization has destroyed crucial green areas in Ranchi City, endangering inhabitants’ health. This study aims to locate current UGPs and predict future UGP sites in Ranchi City, Jharkhand.

It uses geographic information system (GIS) and analytical hierarchical process (AHP) to evaluate potential UGP sites. It involves the active participation of urban communities to ensure that the UGPs are designed to meet dweller’s needs. The site suitability assessment is based on several parameters, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use and land cover (LULC), population distribution, PM 2.5 levels and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. The integration of these factors enables an evaluation of potential UGP’s sites.

The findings of this research reveal that 54.39% of the evaluated areas are unsuitable, 15.55% are less suitable, 12.76% are moderately suitable, 11.52% are highly suitable and 5.78% are very highly suitable for UGPs site selection. These results emphasize that the middle and outer regions of Ranchi City are the most favorable locations for establishing UGPs. The NDVI is the most important element in UGP site appropriateness, followed by LULC, population distribution, PM 2.5 levels and the UHI effect.

This study improves the process of integrating AHP and GIS, and UGPs site selection maps help urban planners and decision-makers make better choices for Ranchi City’s sustainability and greenness.

Classification techniques have been applied to many applications in various fields of sciences. There are several ways of evaluating classification algorithms. The analysis of such metrics and its significance must be interpreted correctly for evaluating different learning algorithms. Most of these measures are scalar metrics and some of them are graphical methods. This paper introduces a detailed overview of the classification assessment measures with the aim of providing the basics of these measures and to show how it works to serve as a comprehensive source for researchers who are interested in this field. This overview starts by highlighting the definition of the confusion matrix in binary and multi-class classification problems. Many classification measures are also explained in details, and the influence of balanced and imbalanced data on each metric is presented. An illustrative example is introduced to show (1) how to calculate these measures in binary and multi-class classification problems, and (2) the robustness of some measures against balanced and imbalanced data. Moreover, some graphical measures such as Receiver operating characteristics (ROC), Precision-Recall, and Detection error trade-off (DET) curves are presented with details. Additionally, in a step-by-step approach, different numerical examples are demonstrated to explain the preprocessing steps of plotting ROC, PR, and DET curves.