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Article
Publication date: 26 August 2024

S. Punitha and K. Devaki

Predicting student performance is crucial in educational settings to identify and support students who may need additional help or resources. Understanding and predicting student…

Abstract

Purpose

Predicting student performance is crucial in educational settings to identify and support students who may need additional help or resources. Understanding and predicting student performance is essential for educators to provide targeted support and guidance to students. By analyzing various factors like attendance, study habits, grades, and participation, teachers can gain insights into each student’s academic progress. This information helps them tailor their teaching methods to meet the individual needs of students, ensuring a more personalized and effective learning experience. By identifying patterns and trends in student performance, educators can intervene early to address any challenges and help students acrhieve their full potential. However, the complexity of human behavior and learning patterns makes it difficult to accurately forecast how a student will perform. Additionally, the availability and quality of data can vary, impacting the accuracy of predictions. Despite these obstacles, continuous improvement in data collection methods and the development of more robust predictive models can help address these challenges and enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of student performance predictions. However, the scalability of the existing models to different educational settings and student populations can be a hurdle. Ensuring that the models are adaptable and effective across diverse environments is crucial for their widespread use and impact. To implement a student’s performance-based learning recommendation scheme for predicting the student’s capabilities and suggesting better materials like papers, books, videos, and hyperlinks according to their needs. It enhances the performance of higher education.

Design/methodology/approach

Thus, a predictive approach for student achievement is presented using deep learning. At the beginning, the data is accumulated from the standard database. Next, the collected data undergoes a stage where features are carefully selected using the Modified Red Deer Algorithm (MRDA). After that, the selected features are given to the Deep Ensemble Networks (DEnsNet), in which techniques such as Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Deep Conditional Random Field (DCRF), and Residual Long Short-Term Memory (Res-LSTM) are utilized for predicting the student performance. In this case, the parameters within the DEnsNet network are finely tuned by the MRDA algorithm. Finally, the results from the DEnsNet network are obtained using a superior method that delivers the final prediction outcome. Following that, the Adaptive Generative Adversarial Network (AGAN) is introduced for recommender systems, with these parameters optimally selected using the MRDA algorithm. Lastly, the method for predicting student performance is evaluated numerically and compared to traditional methods to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Findings

The accuracy of the developed model is 7.66%, 9.91%, 5.3%, and 3.53% more than HHO-DEnsNet, ROA-DEnsNet, GTO-DEnsNet, and AOA-DEnsNet for dataset-1, and 7.18%, 7.54%, 5.43% and 3% enhanced than HHO-DEnsNet, ROA-DEnsNet, GTO-DEnsNet, and AOA-DEnsNet for dataset-2.

Originality/value

The developed model recommends the appropriate learning materials within a short period to improve student’s learning ability.

Article
Publication date: 24 June 2024

Usman Sufi, Arshad Hasan and Khaled Hussainey

The purpose of this study is to test whether the prediction of firm performance can be enhanced by incorporating nonfinancial disclosures, such as narrative disclosure tone and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to test whether the prediction of firm performance can be enhanced by incorporating nonfinancial disclosures, such as narrative disclosure tone and corporate governance indicators, into financial predictive models.

Design/methodology/approach

Three predictive models are developed, each with a different set of predictors. This study utilises two machine learning techniques, random forest and stochastic gradient boosting, for prediction via the three models. The data are collected from a sample of 1,250 annual reports of 125 nonfinancial firms in Pakistan for the period 2011–2020.

Findings

Our results indicate that both narrative disclosure tone and corporate governance indicators significantly add to the accuracy of financial predictive models of firm performance.

Practical implications

Our results offer implications for the restoration of investor confidence in the highly uncertain Pakistani market by establishing nonfinancial disclosures as reliable predictors of future firm performance. Accordingly, they encourage investors to pay more attention to these disclosures while making investment decisions. In addition, they urge regulators to promote and strengthen the reporting of such nonfinancial information.

Originality/value

This study addresses the neglect of nonfinancial disclosures in the prediction of firm performance and the scarcity of corporate governance literature relevant to the use of machine learning techniques.

Details

Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-1168

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 April 2016

He-Boong Kwon, James Jungbae Roh and Nicholas Miceli

The purpose of this paper is to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model via integration with data envelopment analysis (DEA) to provide the means of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model via integration with data envelopment analysis (DEA) to provide the means of predicting incremental performance goals. The findings confirm the usefulness of the herein developed prediction approach, based on the results of analyses of time series data from the smartphone industry.

Design/methodology/approach

A two-stage hybrid model was developed, incorporating sequential measurement and prediction capability. In the first stage, a Chames, Cooper, and Rhodes DEA model is the preprocessor, generating efficiency scores (ES) of decision-making units (DMUs). In the second or follow-on stage, the ANN prediction module utilizes knowledge variables and ES to predict the change in performance needed for a desired level of improvement.

Findings

This combined approach effectively captured the information contained in the industry’s turbulent characteristics, and subsequently demonstrated an adaptive prediction capability. The back propagating neural network successfully predicted the incremental performance targets of DMUs, which translated the desired improvement levels into actionable performance goals, e.g., revenue and operating income.

Originality/value

This paper presents an incremental prediction approach that supports better practice benchmarking. This study differentiates itself from previous research by introducing an adaptive prediction method which generates relevant quantity outputs based upon desired improvement levels. The proposed modeling approach integrates performance measurement with a prediction framework and advances benchmarking practices to enable better performance prediction.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 23 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 June 2022

Gang Yao, Xiaojian Hu, Liangcheng Xu and Zhening Wu

Social media data from financial websites contain information related to enterprise credit risk. Mining valuable new features in social media data helps to improve prediction

Abstract

Purpose

Social media data from financial websites contain information related to enterprise credit risk. Mining valuable new features in social media data helps to improve prediction performance. This paper proposes a credit risk prediction framework that integrates social media information to improve listed enterprise credit risk prediction in the supply chain.

Design/methodology/approach

The prediction framework includes four stages. First, social media information is obtained through web crawler technology. Second, text sentiment in social media information is mined through natural language processing. Third, text sentiment features are constructed. Finally, the new features are integrated with traditional features as input for models for credit risk prediction. This paper takes Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises as an example to test the prediction framework and obtain relevant management enlightenment.

Findings

The prediction framework can improve enterprise credit risk prediction performance. The prediction performance of text sentiment features in social media data is better than that of most traditional features. The time-weighted text sentiment feature has the best prediction performance in mining social media information.

Practical implications

The prediction framework is helpful for the credit decision-making of credit departments and the policy regulation of regulatory departments and is conducive to the sustainable development of enterprises.

Originality/value

The prediction framework can effectively mine social media information and obtain an excellent prediction effect of listed enterprise credit risk in the supply chain.

Article
Publication date: 30 September 2014

He-Boong Kwon

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in conjunction with data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the performance

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in conjunction with data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the performance measurement of major mobile phone providers, and for subsequent predictions related to best performance benchmarking and decision making.

Design/methodology/approach

DEA and ANN are combined, providing an integrated modeling approach via a two-stage process. DEA is used for front end measurement, while ANN provides learning and prediction capabilities. DEA analysis of industry characteristics is based on the measurement of each decision-making unit's (DMU) performance. Back propagation neural networks (BPNN) can then predict each DMU's efficiency score, based on the results of the DEA models. Additional BPNN models provide best performance predictions.

Findings

The DEA module successfully evaluates the competitive status of firms in the mobile phone industry in terms of efficiency. Efficiency trends over the observation period reveal the dynamic nature of competition in this industry. The predictive power of the BPNN module has been demonstrated as well. The proposed system is an effective benchmarking and decision support tool, via its capability to simulate performance scenarios, thereby facilitating insightful, prudent decision making.

Originality/value

This paper proposes the use of two different but complementary methods, DEA and ANN, in a combined performance modeling approach, and examines mobile phone providers. This methodology can improve users’ performance benchmarking and decision-making processes. Additionally, adaptive prediction capability is provided through approximating efficient frontiers, in addition to performance measurement.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 21 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2022

Joerg Leukel, Julian González and Martin Riekert

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in industrial maintenance to predict system failures. However, less is known about how the time windows for reading data…

Abstract

Purpose

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in industrial maintenance to predict system failures. However, less is known about how the time windows for reading data and making predictions affect performance. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to assess the impact of different sliding windows on prediction performance.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors conducted a factorial experiment using high dimensional machine data covering two years of operation, taken from a real industrial case for the production of high-precision milled and turned parts. The impacts of different reading and prediction windows were tested for three ML algorithms (random forest, support vector machines and logistic regression) and four metrics (accuracy, precision, recall and F-score).

Findings

The results reveal (1) the critical role of the prediction window contingent upon the application domain, (2) a non-monotonic relationship between the reading window and performance, and (3) how sliding window selection can systematically be used to improve different facets of performance.

Originality/value

The study's findings advance the knowledge of ML-based failure prediction, by highlighting how systematic variation of two important but yet understudied factors contributes to the development of more useful prediction models.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 40 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 March 2024

Gang Yu, Zhiqiang Li, Ruochen Zeng, Yucong Jin, Min Hu and Vijayan Sugumaran

Accurate prediction of the structural condition of urban critical infrastructure is crucial for predictive maintenance. However, the existing prediction methods lack precision due…

82

Abstract

Purpose

Accurate prediction of the structural condition of urban critical infrastructure is crucial for predictive maintenance. However, the existing prediction methods lack precision due to limitations in utilizing heterogeneous sensing data and domain knowledge as well as insufficient generalizability resulting from limited data samples. This paper integrates implicit and qualitative expert knowledge into quantifiable values in tunnel condition assessment and proposes a tunnel structure prediction algorithm that augments a state-of-the-art attention-based long short-term memory (LSTM) model with expert rating knowledge to achieve robust prediction results to reasonably allocate maintenance resources.

Design/methodology/approach

Through formalizing domain experts' knowledge into quantitative tunnel condition index (TCI) with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a fusion approach using sequence smoothing and sliding time window techniques is applied to the TCI and time-series sensing data. By incorporating both sensing data and expert ratings, an attention-based LSTM model is developed to improve prediction accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of structural influencing factors.

Findings

The empirical experiment in Dalian Road Tunnel in Shanghai, China showcases the effectiveness of the proposed method, which can comprehensively evaluate the tunnel structure condition and significantly improve prediction performance.

Originality/value

This study proposes a novel structure condition prediction algorithm that augments a state-of-the-art attention-based LSTM model with expert rating knowledge for robust prediction of structure condition of complex projects.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 April 2016

He-Boong Kwon, Jooh Lee and James Jungbae Roh

The purpose of this paper is to design an innovative performance modeling system by jointly using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and artificial neural network (ANN). The hybrid…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to design an innovative performance modeling system by jointly using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and artificial neural network (ANN). The hybrid DEA-ANN model integrates performance measurement and prediction frameworks and serves as an adaptive decision support tool in pursuit of best performance benchmarking and stepwise improvement.

Design/methodology/approach

Advantages of combining DEA and ANN methods into an optimal performance prediction model are explored. DEA is used as a preprocessor to measure relative performance of decision-making units (DMUs) and to generate test inputs for subsequent ANN prediction modules. For this sequential process, Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes and Banker, Chames and Cooper DEA models and back propagation neural network (BPNN) are used. The proposed methodology is empirically supported using longitudinal data of Japanese electronics manufacturing firms.

Findings

The combined modeling approach proves effective through sequential processes by streamlining DEA analysis and BPNN predictions. The DEA model captures notable characteristics and efficiency trends of the Japanese electronics manufacturing industry and extends its utility as a preprocessor to neural network prediction modules. BPNN, in conjunction with DEA, demonstrates promising estimation capability in predicting efficiency scores and best performance benchmarks for DMUs under evaluation.

Research limitations/implications

Integration of adaptive prediction capacity into the measurement model is a practical necessity in the benchmarking arena. The proposed framework has the potential to recalibrate benchmarks for firms through longitudinal data analysis.

Originality/value

This research paper proposes an innovative approach of performance measurement and prediction in line with superiority-driven best performance modeling. Adaptive prediction capabilities embedded in the proposed model enhances managerial flexibilities in setting performance goals and monitoring progress during pursuit of improvement initiatives. This paper fills the research void through methodological breakthrough and the resulting model can serve as an adaptive decision support system.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 23 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 July 2020

Jiaming Liu, Liuan Wang, Linan Zhang, Zeming Zhang and Sicheng Zhang

The primary objective of this study was to recognize critical indicators in predicting blood glucose (BG) through data-driven methods and to compare the prediction performance of…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this study was to recognize critical indicators in predicting blood glucose (BG) through data-driven methods and to compare the prediction performance of four tree-based ensemble models, i.e. bagging with tree regressors (bagging-decision tree [Bagging-DT]), AdaBoost with tree regressors (Adaboost-DT), random forest (RF) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT).

Design/methodology/approach

This study proposed a majority voting feature selection method by combining lasso regression with the Akaike information criterion (AIC) (LR-AIC), lasso regression with the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) (LR-BIC) and RF to select indicators with excellent predictive performance from initial 38 indicators in 5,642 samples. The selected features were deployed to build the tree-based ensemble models. The 10-fold cross-validation (CV) method was used to evaluate the performance of each ensemble model.

Findings

The results of feature selection indicated that age, corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (CHC), red blood cell volume distribution width (RBCVDW), red blood cell volume and leucocyte count are five most important clinical/physical indicators in BG prediction. Furthermore, this study also found that the GBDT ensemble model combined with the proposed majority voting feature selection method is better than other three models with respect to prediction performance and stability.

Practical implications

This study proposed a novel BG prediction framework for better predictive analytics in health care.

Social implications

This study incorporated medical background and machine learning technology to reduce diabetes morbidity and formulate precise medical schemes.

Originality/value

The majority voting feature selection method combined with the GBDT ensemble model provides an effective decision-making tool for predicting BG and detecting diabetes risk in advance.

Article
Publication date: 30 March 2010

Ricardo de A. Araújo

The purpose of this paper is to present a new quantum‐inspired evolutionary hybrid intelligent (QIEHI) approach, in order to overcome the random walk dilemma for stock market…

1570

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present a new quantum‐inspired evolutionary hybrid intelligent (QIEHI) approach, in order to overcome the random walk dilemma for stock market prediction.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed QIEHI method is inspired by the Takens' theorem and performs a quantum‐inspired evolutionary search for the minimum necessary dimension (time lags) embedded in the problem for determining the characteristic phase space that generates the financial time series phenomenon. The approach presented in this paper consists of a quantum‐inspired intelligent model composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) with a modified quantum‐inspired evolutionary algorithm (MQIEA), which is able to evolve the complete ANN architecture and parameters (pruning process), the ANN training algorithm (used to further improve the ANN parameters supplied by the MQIEA), and the most suitable time lags, to better describe the time series phenomenon.

Findings

This paper finds that, initially, the proposed QIEHI method chooses the better prediction model, then it performs a behavioral statistical test to adjust time phase distortions that appear in financial time series. Also, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed approach using six real‐word stock market times series, and the obtained results are discussed and compared, according to a group of relevant performance metrics, to results found with multilayer perceptron networks and the previously introduced time‐delay added evolutionary forecasting method.

Originality/value

The paper usefully demonstrates how the proposed QIEHI method chooses the best prediction model for the times series representation and performs a behavioral statistical test to adjust time phase distortions that frequently appear in financial time series.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

Keywords

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