Search results

Research on grey systems is becoming more sophisticated, and grey relational and prediction analyses are receiving close review worldwide. Particularly, the application of grey systems in marine economics is gaining importance. The purpose of this paper is to summarize and review literature on grey models, providing new directions in their application in the marine economy.

This paper organized seminal studies on grey systems published by Chinese core journal database – CNKI, Web of Science and Elsevier from 1982 to 2018. After searching the aforementioned database for the said duration, the authors used the CiteSpace visualization tools to analyze them.

The authors sorted the studies according to their countries/regions, institutions, keywords and categories using the CiteSpace tool; analyzed current research characteristics on grey models; and discussed their possible applications in marine businesses, economy, scientific research and education, marine environment and disasters. Finally, the authors pointed out the development trend of grey models.

Although researches are combining grey theory with fractals, neural networks, fuzzy theory and other methods, the applications, in terms of scope, have still not met the demand. With the increasingly in-depth research in marine economics and management, international marine economic research has entered a new period of development. Grey theory will certainly attract scholars’ attention, and its role in marine economy and management will gain considerable significance.

Considering the impact of the Free Trade Zone (FTZ) policy on forecasting the port cargo throughput, this paper constructs a fractional grey multivariate forecasting model to improve the prediction accuracy of port cargo throughput and realize the coordinated development of FTZ policymaking and port construction.

Considering the effects of data randomization, this paper proposes a novel self-adaptive grey multivariate prediction model, namely FDCGM(1,N). First, fractional-order accumulative generation operation (AGO) is introduced, which integrates the policy impact effect. Second, the heuristic grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is used to determine the optimal nonlinear parameters. Finally, the novel model is then applied to port scale simulation and forecasting in Tianjin and Fujian where FTZs are situated and compared with three other grey models and two machine learning models.

In the Tianjin and Fujian cases, the new model outperforms the other comparison models, with the least mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of 6.07% and 4.16% in the simulation phase, and 6.70% and 1.63% in the forecasting phase, respectively. The results of the comparative analysis find that after the constitution of the FTZs, Tianjin’s port cargo throughput has shown a slow growth trend, and Fujian’s port cargo throughput has exhibited rapid growth. Further, the port cargo throughput of Tianjin and Fujian will maintain a growing trend in the next four years.

The new multivariable grey model can effectively reduce the impact of data randomness on forecasting. Meanwhile, FTZ policy has regional heterogeneity in port development, and the government can take different measures to improve the development of ports.

Under the background of FTZ policy, the new multivariable model can be used to achieve accurate prediction, which is conducive to determining the direction of port development and planning the port layout.

With the use of the grey incidence analysis (GIA), indicators such as the absolute degree of grey incidence (ε_ij), relative degree of grey incidence (r_ij) or synthetic degree of grey incidence (ρ_ij) are calculated. However, it seems that some assumptions made to calculate them are arguable, which may also have a material impact on the reliability of test results. In this paper, the authors analyse one of the indicators of the GIA, namely the relative degree of grey incidence. The aim of the article was to verify the hypothesis: in determining the relative degree of grey incidence, the method of standardisation of elements in a series significantly affects the test results.

To achieve the purpose of the article, the authors used the numerical simulation method and the logical analysis method (in order to draw conclusions from our tests).

It turned out that the applied method of standardising elements in series when calculating the relative degree of grey incidence significantly affects the test results. Moreover, the manner of standardisation used in the original method (which involves dividing all elements by the first element) is not the best. Much more reliable results are obtained by a standardisation that involves dividing all elements by their arithmetic mean.

Limitations of the conducted evaluation involve in particular the limited scope of inference. This is since the obtained results referred to only one of the indicators classified into the GIA.

In this article, the authors have evaluated the model of GIA in which the relative degree of grey incidence is determined. As a result of the research, the authors have proposed a recommendation regarding a change in the method of standardising variables, which will contribute to obtaining more reliable results in relational tests using the grey system theory.

To achieve sustainable development in shipping, accurately identifying the impact of artificial intelligence on shipping carbon emissions and predicting these emissions is of utmost importance.

A multivariable discrete grey prediction model (WFTDGM) based on weakening buffering operator is established. Furthermore, the optimal nonlinear parameters are determined by Grey Wolf optimization algorithm to improve the prediction performance, enhancing the model’s predictive performance. Subsequently, global data on artificial intelligence and shipping carbon emissions are employed to validate the effectiveness of our new model and chosen algorithm.

To demonstrate the applicability and robustness of the new model in predicting marine shipping carbon emissions, the new model is used to forecast global marine shipping carbon emissions. Additionally, a comparative analysis is conducted with five other models. The empirical findings indicate that the WFTDGM (1, N) model outperforms other comparative models in overall efficacy, with MAPE for both the training and test sets being less than 4%, specifically at 0.299% and 3.489% respectively. Furthermore, the out-of-sample forecasting results suggest an upward trajectory in global shipping carbon emissions over the subsequent four years. Currently, the application of artificial intelligence in mitigating shipping-related carbon emissions has not achieved the desired inhibitory impact.

This research not only deepens understanding of the mechanisms through which artificial intelligence influences shipping carbon emissions but also provides a scientific basis for developing effective emission reduction strategies in the shipping industry, thereby contributing significantly to green shipping and global carbon reduction efforts.

The multi-variable discrete grey prediction model developed in this paper effectively mitigates abnormal fluctuations in time series, serving as a valuable reference for promoting global green and low-carbon transitions and sustainable economic development. Furthermore, based on the findings of this paper, a grey prediction model with even higher predictive performance can be constructed by integrating it with other algorithms.

The traditional grey relational models directly describe the behavioural characteristics of the systems based on the sample point connections. Few grey relational models can measure the dynamic periodic fluctuation rules of the objects, and most of these models do not have affinities, which results in instabilities of the relational results because of sequence translation. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Fourier transform functions are used to fit the system behaviour curves, redefine the area difference between the curves and construct a grey relational model based on discrete Fourier transform (DFTGRA).

To verify its validity, feasibility and superiority, DFTGRA is applied to research on the correlation between macroeconomic growth and marine economic growth in China coastal areas. It is proved that DFTGRA has the superior properties of affinity, symmetry, uniqueness, etc., and wide applicability.

DFTGRA can not only be applied to equidistant and equal time sequences but also be adopted for non-equidistant and unequal time sequences. DFTGRA can measure both the global relational degree and the dynamic correlation of the variable cyclical fluctuation between sequences.

This paper aims to classify journal papers in the context of hybrid quality function deployment QFD and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods published during 2004–2021.

A conceptual classification scheme is presented to analyze the hybrid QFD-MCDM methods. Then some recommendations are given to introduce directions for future research.

The results show that among all related areas, the manufacturing application has the most frequency of published papers regarding hybrid QFD-MCDM methods. Moreover, using uncertainty to establish a hybrid QFD-MCDM the relevant papers have been considered during the time interval 2004–2021.

There are various shortcomings in conventional QFD which limit its efficiency and potential applications. Since 2004, when MCDM methods were frequently adopted in the quality management context, increasing attention has been drawn from both practical and academic perspectives. Recently, the integration of MCDM techniques into the QFD model has played an important role in designing new products and services, supplier selection, green manufacturing systems and sustainability topics. Hence, this survey reviewed hybrid QFD-MCDM methods during 2004–2021.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework for data analytics where everything is grey in nature and the associated uncertainty is considered as an essential part in data collection, profiling, imputation, analysis and decision making.

A comparative study is conducted between the available uncertainty models and the feasibility of grey systems is highlighted. Furthermore, a general framework for the integration of grey systems and grey sets into data analytics is proposed.

Grey systems and grey sets are useful not only for small data, but also big data as well. It is complementary to other models and can play a significant role in data analytics.

The proposed framework brings a radical change in data analytics. It may bring a fundamental change in our way to deal with uncertainties.

The proposed model has the potential to avoid the mistake from a misleading data imputation.

The proposed model takes the philosophy of grey systems in recognising the limitation of our knowledge which has significant implications in our way to deal with our social life and relations.

This is the first time that the whole data analytics is considered from the point of view of grey systems.

Data breaches in the US healthcare sector have more than tripled in the last decade across all states. However, to this day, no established framework ranks all states from most to least at risk for healthcare data breaches. This gap has led to a lack of proper risk identification and understanding of cyber environments at state levels.

Based on the security action cycle, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) cybersecurity framework, the risk-planning model, and the multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) literature, the paper offers an integrated multicriteria framework for prioritization in cybersecurity to address this lack and other prioritization issues in risk management in the field. The study used historical breach data between 2015 and 2021.

The findings showed that California, Texas, New York, Florida, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, and Georgia are the states most at risk for healthcare data breaches.

The findings highlight each US state faces a different level of healthcare risk. The findings are informative for patients, crucial for privacy officers in understanding the nuances of their risk environment, and important for policy-makers who must grasp the grave disconnect between existing issues and legislative practices. Furthermore, the study suggests an association between positioning state risk and such factors as population and wealth, both avenues for future research.

Theoretically, the paper offers an integrated framework, whose basis in established security models in both academia and industry practice enables utilizing it in various prioritization scenarios in the field of cybersecurity. It further emphasizes the importance of risk identification and brings attention to different healthcare cybersecurity environments among the different US states.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of an improved dummy variables control grey model (DVCGM) considering the hysteresis effect of government policies in China's energy intensity (EI) forecasting.

Energy consumption is considered as an important driver of economic development. China has introduced policies those aim at the optimization of energy structure and EI. In this study, EI is forecasted by an improved DVCGM, considering the hysteresis effect of energy-saving policies of the government. A nonlinear optimization method based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is constructed to calculate the hysteresis parameter. A one-step rolling mechanism is applied to provide input data of the prediction model. Grey model (GM) (1, N), DVCGM (1, N) and ARIMA model are applied to test the accuracy of the improved DVCGM (1, N) model prediction.

The results show that the improved DVCGM provides reliable results and works well in simulation and predictions using multivariable data in small sample size and time-lag virtual variable. Accordingly, the improved DVCGM notes the hysteresis effect of government policies and significantly improves the prediction accuracy of China's EI than the other three models.

This study estimates the EI considering the hysteresis effect of energy-saving policies in China by using an improved DVCGM. The main contribution of this paper is to propose a model to estimate EI, considering the hysteresis effect of energy-saving policies and improve forecasting accuracy.

This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to manages.

Six different univariate methods, namely the classical decomposition model, the trigonometric regression model, the regression model with seasonal dummy variables, the grey forecast, the hybrid grey model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), have been used.

The authors found that the grey forecast is a reliable forecasting method for crude oil prices.

The contribution of this research study is using a small size of data and comparing the forecasting results of the six univariate methods. Three commonly used evaluation criteria, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE), were adopted to evaluate the model performance. The outcome of this work can help predict the crude oil price.