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This study aims to analyze government hotline text data and generating forecasts could enable the effective detection of public demands and help government departments explore, mitigate and resolve social problems.

In this study, social problems were determined and analyzed by using the time attributes of government hotline data. Social public events with periodicity were quantitatively analyzed via the Prophet model. The Prophet model is decided after running a comparison study with other widely applied time series models. The validation of modeling and forecast was conducted for social events such as travel and educational services, human resources and public health.

The results show that the Prophet algorithm could generate relatively the best performance. Besides, the four types of social events showed obvious trends with periodicities and holidays and have strong interpretable results.

The research could help government departments pay attention to time dependency and periodicity features of the hotline data and be aware of early warnings of social events following periodicity and holidays, enabling them to rationally allocate resources to handle upcoming social events and problems and better promoting the role of the big data structure of government hotline data sets in urban governance innovations.

The use of aviation incident data to carry out aviation risk prediction is of great significance for improving the initiative of accident prevention and reducing the occurrence of accidents. Because of the nonlinearity and periodicity of incident data, it is challenging to achieve accurate predictions. Therefore, this paper aims to provide a new method for aviation risk prediction with high accuracy.

This paper proposes a hybrid prediction model incorporating Prophet and long short-term memory (LSTM) network. The flight incident data are decomposed using Prophet to extract the feature components. Taking the decomposed time series as input, LSTM is employed for prediction and its output is used as the final prediction result.

The data of Chinese civil aviation incidents from 2002 to 2021 are used for validation, and Prophet, LSTM and two other typical prediction models are selected for comparison. The experimental results demonstrate that the Prophet–LSTM model is more stable, with higher prediction accuracy and better applicability.

This study can provide a new idea for aviation risk prediction and a scientific basis for aviation safety management.

The innovation of this work comes from combining Prophet and LSTM to capture the periodic features and temporal dependencies of incidents, effectively improving prediction accuracy.

Online question-and-answer (Q&A) communities serve as important channels for knowledge diffusion. The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic development process of online knowledge systems and explore the final or progressive state of system development. By measuring the nonlinear characteristics of knowledge systems from the perspective of complexity science, the authors aim to enrich the perspective and method of the research on the dynamics of knowledge systems, and to deeply understand the behavior rules of knowledge systems.

The authors collected data from the programming-related Q&A site Stack Overflow for a ten-year period (2008–2017) and included 48,373 tags in the analyses. The number of tags is taken as the time series, the correlation dimension and the maximum Lyapunov index are used to examine the chaos of the system and the Volterra series multistep forecast method is used to predict the system state.

There are strange attractors in the system, the whole system is complex but bounded and its evolution is bound to approach a relatively stable range. Empirical analyses indicate that chaos exists in the process of knowledge sharing in this social labeling system, and the period of change over time is about one week.

This study contributes to revealing the evolutionary cycle of knowledge stock in online knowledge systems and further indicates how this dynamic evolution can help in the setting of platform mechanics and resource inputs.

In the field of heritage science, especially applied to buildings and artefacts made by organic hygroscopic materials, analyzing the microclimate has always been of extreme importance. In particular, in many cases, the knowledge of the outdoor/indoor microclimate may support the decision process in conservation and preservation matters of historic buildings. This knowledge is often gained by implementing long and time-consuming monitoring campaigns that allow collecting atmospheric and climatic data.

Sometimes the collected time series may be corrupted, incomplete and/or subjected to the sensors' errors because of the remoteness of the historic building location, the natural aging of the sensor or the lack of a continuous check of the data downloading process. For this reason, in this work, an innovative approach about reconstructing the indoor microclimate into heritage buildings, just knowing the outdoor one, is proposed. This methodology is based on using machine learning tools known as variational auto encoders (VAEs), that are able to reconstruct time series and/or to fill data gaps.

The proposed approach is implemented using data collected in Ringebu Stave Church, a Norwegian medieval wooden heritage building. Reconstructing a realistic time series, for the vast majority of the year period, of the natural internal climate of the Church has been successfully implemented.

The novelty of this work is discussed in the framework of the existing literature. The work explores the potentials of machine learning tools compared to traditional ones, providing a method that is able to reliably fill missing data in time series.

This paper deals with a particular type of leasing contracts according to which an equipment is leased for free with the condition for the lessee to purchase a predetermined minimum quantity of consumables during each leasing period. Maintenance actions are performed by the lessor and borne by him. Imperfect preventive maintenance is carried out every t time units throughout the leasing period. Minimal repairs are performed following equipment failures. At the end of the leasing period, an overhaul which restores the equipment to “as good as new” state is performed. The equipment is leased many times during its life cycle. The purpose of this paper is to determine the values of the decision variables for the lessor, which are the preventive maintenance (PM) period and the minimum quantity of consumables to be sold to ensure profit.

A mathematical model is developed to express the expected maintenance cost per time unit incurred by the lessor as well as his expected profit over the equipment life cycle. The optimal PM period minimizing the maintenance cost is determined first. Then, given the corresponding minimum maintenance cost, the minimum quantity of consumables (the lessor's break-even point) to be purchased by the lessee is computed. A numerical example and a sensitivity study are presented, and the obtained results are discussed.

The outcome of this work is supposed to help the lessors determining two key values to be included in each leasing contract, namely: (1) the periodicity according to which they will commit to perform preventive maintenance actions such that their average total cost of maintenance is minimized, (2) the minimum quantity of consumables that the lessee must commit to purchasing during the leasing period. This quantity must be between the break-even point and the maximum quantity associated with the capacity of the equipment.

Practically, the objective of this work is first to determine the optimal strategy to be adopted by the lessor in terms of effort relating to PM and second to determine the minimum quantity of consumables that the lessee must purchase during the leasing period such as profit is insured for the lessor.

This type of leasing (for free) has not been addressed in the literature particularly when considering maintenance strategies.

The electromechanical planetary transmission system has the advantages of high transmission power and fast running speed, which is one of the important development directions in the future. However, during the operation of the electromechanical planetary transmission system, friction and other factors will lead to an increase in gear temperature and thermal deformation, which will affect the transmission performance of the system, and it is of great significance to study the influence of the temperature effect on the nonlinear dynamics of the electromechanical planetary system.

The effects of temperature change, motor speed, time-varying meshing stiffness, meshing damping ratio and error amplitude on the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of electromechanical planetary systems are studied by using bifurcation diagrams, time-domain diagrams, phase diagrams, Poincaré cross-sectional diagrams, spectra, etc.

The results show that when the temperature rise is less than 70 °C, the system will exhibit chaotic motion. When the motor speed is greater than 900r/min, the system enters a chaotic state. The changes in time-varying meshing stiffness, meshing damping ratio, and error amplitude will also make the system exhibit abundant bifurcation characteristics.

Based on the principle of thermal deformation, taking into account the temperature effect and nonlinear parameters, including time-varying meshing stiffness and tooth side clearance as well as comprehensive errors, a dynamic model of the electromechanical planetary gear system was established.

This paper seeks to investigate the differences in the teachers’ professional development (TPD) by mentorship in workplace. The authors examined the role of mentorship in the PD of teachers and conducted a meta-analysis of pertinent empirical data.

Using data from over 2,900 individuals, 66 experiments and 12 countries, the authors presented a meta-analysis of the association between workplace mentorship and TPD.

The authors concluded that mentoring activities could boost the TPD to some extent. It contributes positively to the discipline of science and language, kindergarten, individual mentoring and curriculum research. In addition, the periodicity should not exceed 1 year.

The results of the meta-analysis are restricted to short-term mentorship activities, and the sample size is modest. Building upon the findings from the literature review and meta-analysis, the authors delineated a research agenda for prospective investigations. This includes an imperative for further exploration into the nexus between mentoring and the PD of educators.

Based on the available literature and meta-analysis findings, the authors developed a framework for the “Experts in the classroom” TPD pattern.

This is the first meta-analysis evaluating the association between mentorship and TPD.

The chemical plant (CP) maintenance industry has been under increasing pressure by process designers to demonstrate its evaluation and information management of model checking (MC) on the durability’s performance and design of plant control instrument. This main problem has been termed as imperfect maintenance actions (IMAs) level. Although IMAs have been explored in interdisciplinary maintenance environments, less is known about what imperfect maintenance problems currently exist and what their causes are, such as the recent explosion in the Beirut city (4 August 2020, about 181 fatalities). The aim of this paper is to identify how CP maintenance environments could integrate MC within their processes.

To achieve this aim, a comprehensive literature review of the existing conceptualisation of MC practices is reviewed and the main features of information and communication technology tools and techniques currently being employed on such IMA projects are carried out and synthesised into a conceptual framework for integrating MC in the automation system process.

The literature reveals that various CP designers conceptualise MC in different ways. MC is commonly shaped by long-term compliance to fulfil the requirement for maintaining a comfortable durability risk on imperfect maintenance schemes of CP projects. Also, there is a lack of common approaches for integrating the delivery process of MC. The conceptual framework demonstrates the importance of early integration of MC in the design phase to identify alternative methods to cogenerate, monitor and optimise MC.

Thus far, this study advances the knowledge about how CP maintenance environments can ensure MC delivery. This paper highlights the need for further research to integrate MC in CP maintenance environments. A future study could validate the framework across the design phase with different CP project designers.

A time-varying grey Fourier model (TVGFM(1,1,N)) is proposed for the simulation of variable amplitude seasonal fluctuation time series, as the performance of traditional grey models can't catch the time-varying trend well.

The proposed model couples Fourier series and linear time-varying terms as the grey action, to describe the characteristics of variable amplitude and seasonality. The truncated Fourier order N is preselected from the alternative order set by Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem and the principle of simplicity, then the optimal Fourier order is determined by hold-out method to improve the robustness of the proposed model. Initial value correction and the multiple transformation are also studied to improve the precision.

The new model has a broader applicability range as a result of the new grey action, attaining higher fitting and forecasting accuracy. The numerical experiment of a generated monthly time series indicates the proposed model can accurately fit the variable amplitude seasonal sequence, in which the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is only 0.01%, and the complex simulations based on Monte-Carlo method testify the validity of the proposed model. The results of monthly electricity consumption in China's primary industry, demonstrate the proposed model catches the time-varying trend and has good performances, where MAPE_F and MAPE_T are below 5%. Moreover, the proposed TVGFM(1,1,N) model is superior to the benchmark models, grey polynomial model (GMP(1,1,N)), grey Fourier model (GFM(1,1,N)), seasonal grey model (SGM(1,1)), seasonal ARIMA model seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR).

The parameter estimates and forecasting of the new proposed TVGFM are studied, and the good fitting and forecasting accuracy of time-varying amplitude seasonal fluctuation series are testified by numerical simulations and a case study.