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Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

Elena Fedorova and Polina Iasakova

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change news on the dynamics of US stock indices.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change news on the dynamics of US stock indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical basis of the study was 3,209 news articles. Sentiment analysis was performed by a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Thematic modeling is based on the neural network, BERTopic.

Findings

The results show that news sentiment can influence the dynamics of stock indices. In addition, five main news topics (finance and politics natural disasters and consequences industrial sector and Innovations activism and culture coronavirus pandemic) were identified, which showed a significant impact on the financial market.

Originality/value

First, we extend the theoretical concepts. This study applies signaling theory and overreaction theory to the US stock market in the context of climate change. Second, in addition to the news sentiment, the impact of major news topics on US stock market returns is examined. Third, we examine the impact of sentimental and thematic news variables on US stock market indicators of economic sectors. Previous works reveal the impact of climate change news on specific sectors of the economy. This paper includes stock indices of the economic sectors most related to the topic of climate change. Fourth, the research methodology consists of modern algorithms. An advanced textual analysis method for sentiment classification is applied: a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Modern thematic modeling is carried out using a model based on the neural network, BERTopic. The most extensive topics are “finance and politics of climate change” and “natural disasters and consequences.”

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 December 2023

Steven D. Silver and Marko Raseta

The intention of the empirics is to contribute to the general understanding of investor responses to market price shocks. The authors review assumptions about investor behavior in…

Abstract

Purpose

The intention of the empirics is to contribute to the general understanding of investor responses to market price shocks. The authors review assumptions about investor behavior in response to price shocks and investigate alternative rebalancing heuristics.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use market data over 40 years to define market shocks. Portfolio rebalancing implements constrained Markowitz mean-variance (MV) heuristics.

Findings

Momentum rebalancing in portfolio management outperforms contrarian rebalancing in the study interval. Sensitivity analysis by decade, sector constraints and proportion of security holdings bought or sold continue to support momentum rebalancing.

Research limitations/implications

The results are consistent with under-responding to price shocks at consensus levels in financial markets. The theoretical background provides a basis for experimental lab studies of shocks of different magnitudes under conditions in which participants have information on the levels of other participants and a condition in which they can only observe their previous estimates.

Practical implications

Managing portfolios in the face of price disturbances of different magnitudes is informed by empirical studies and their implications for investor behavior.

Originality/value

This is the first study the authors can locate that uses market data with alternative rebalancing heuristics to estimate price returns from the respective heuristics over a time interval of 40 years. The authors support the results with sensitivity estimates and consider implications for the underlying agent heuristics in light of background studies.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Qingmei Tan, Muhammad Haroon Rasheed and Muhammad Shahid Rasheed

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a profound influence on the dissemination of information among participants in stock markets. Consequently, this present study delves into the ramifications of post-pandemic dynamics on stock market behavior. It also examines the relationship between investors' sentiments, underlying behavioral drivers and their collective impact on global stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing upon data spanning from 2012 to 2023 and encompassing major world indices classified by Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) market and regional taxonomy, this study employs a threshold regression model. This model effectively distinguishes the thresholds within these influential factors. To evaluate the statistical significance of variances across these thresholds, a Wald coefficient analysis was applied.

Findings

The empirical results highlighted the substantive role that investors' sentiments and behavioral determinants play in shaping the predictability of returns on a global scale. However, their influence on developed economies and the continents of America appears comparatively lower compared with the Asia–Pacific markets. Similarly, the regions characterized by a more pronounced influence of behavioral factors seem to reduce their reliance on these factors in the post-pandemic landscape and vice versa. Interestingly, the post COVID-19 technological advancements also appear to exert a lesser impact on developed nations.

Originality/value

This study pioneers the investigation of these contextual dissimilarities, thereby charting new avenues for subsequent research studies. These insights shed valuable light on the contextualized nexus between technology, societal dynamics, behavioral biases and their collective impact on stock markets. Furthermore, the study's revelations offer a unique vantage point for addressing market inefficiencies by pinpointing the pivotal factors driving such behavioral patterns.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Maqsood Ahmad

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management…

2191

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency. It also includes some of the research work on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance, and how this has grown substantially to become an established and particular subject of study in its own right. The study also aims to provide future direction to the researchers working in this field.

Design/methodology/approach

For doing research synthesis, a systematic literature review (SLR) approach was applied considering research studies published within the time period, i.e. 1970–2021. This study attempted to accomplish a critical review of 176 studies out of 256 studies identified, which were published in reputable journals to synthesize the existing literature in the behavioral finance domain-related explicitly to cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency as well as on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance.

Findings

This review reveals that investors often use cognitive heuristics to reduce the risk of losses in uncertain situations, but that leads to errors in judgment; as a result, investors make irrational decisions, which may cause the market to overreact or underreact – in both situations, the market becomes inefficient. Overall, the literature demonstrates that there is currently no consensus on the usefulness of cognitive heuristics in the context of investment management activities and market efficiency. Therefore, a lack of consensus about this topic suggests that further studies may bring relevant contributions to the literature. Based on the gaps analysis, three major categories of gaps, namely theoretical and methodological gaps, and contextual gaps, are found, where research is needed.

Practical implications

The skillful understanding and knowledge of the cognitive heuristic-driven biases will help the investors, financial institutions and policymakers to overcome the adverse effect of these behavioral biases in the stock market. This article provides a detailed explanation of cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their influence on investment management activities and market efficiency, which could be very useful for finance practitioners, such as an investor who plays at the stock exchange, a portfolio manager, a financial strategist/advisor in an investment firm, a financial planner, an investment banker, a trader/broker at the stock exchange or a financial analyst. But most importantly, the term also includes all those persons who manage corporate entities and are responsible for making their financial management strategies.

Originality/value

Currently, no recent study exists, which reviews and evaluates the empirical research on cognitive heuristic-driven biases displayed by investors. The current study is original in discussing the role of cognitive heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities and market efficiency as well as the history and foundations of behavioral finance by means of research synthesis. This paper is useful to researchers, academicians, policymakers and those working in the area of behavioral finance in understanding the role that cognitive heuristic plays in investment management activities and market efficiency.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 October 2023

Le Quy Duong

Although the value effect is comprehensively investigated in developed markets, the number of studies examining the Vietnamese stock market is limited. Hence, the first aim of…

Abstract

Purpose

Although the value effect is comprehensively investigated in developed markets, the number of studies examining the Vietnamese stock market is limited. Hence, the first aim of this research is to provide empirical evidence regarding returns on value and growth stocks in Vietnam. The second aim is to explain abnormal returns on Vietnamese growth and value stocks using both risk-based and behavioral points of view.

Design/methodology/approach

From the risk-based explanation, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama–French three- and five-factor models are estimated. From the behavioral explanation, to construct the mispricing factor, this paper relies on the method of Rhodes-Kropf et al. (2005), one of the most popular mispricing estimations in the financial literature with numerous citations (Jaffe et al., 2020).

Findings

While the CAPM and Fama–French multifactor models cannot capture returns on growth and value stocks, a three-factor model with the mispricing factor has done an excellent job in explaining their returns. Three out of four Fama–French mimic factors do not contain additional information on expected returns. Their risk premiums are also statistically insignificant according to the Fama–MacBeth second-stage regression. By contrast, both robustness tests prove the explanatory power of a three-factor model with mispricing. Taken together, mispricing plays an essential role in explaining returns on Vietnamese growth and value stocks, consistent with the behavioral point of view.

Originality/value

There are several value-enhancing aspects in the field of market finance. First, this paper contributes to the literature of value effect in emerging markets. While the evidence of value effect is obvious in numerous developed as well as international markets, both growth and value effects are discovered in Vietnam. Second, the explanatory power of Fama–French multifactor models is evaluated in the Vietnamese context. Finally, to the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first paper that incorporates the mispricing estimation of Rhodes-Kropf et al. (2005) into the asset pricing model in Vietnam.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 February 2024

Zaifeng Wang, Tiancai Xing and Xiao Wang

We aim to clarify the effect of economic uncertainty on Chinese stock market fluctuations. We extend the understanding of the asymmetric connectedness between economic uncertainty…

Abstract

Purpose

We aim to clarify the effect of economic uncertainty on Chinese stock market fluctuations. We extend the understanding of the asymmetric connectedness between economic uncertainty and stock market risk and provide different characteristics of spillovers from economic uncertainty to both upside and downside risk. Furthermore, we aim to provide the different impact patterns of stock market volatility following several exogenous shocks.

Design/methodology/approach

We construct a Chinese economic uncertainty index using a Factor-Augmented Variable Auto-Regressive Stochastic Volatility (FAVAR-SV) model for high-dimensional data. We then examine the asymmetric impact of realized volatility and economic uncertainty on the long-term volatility components of the stock market through the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Mixed Data Sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model.

Findings

Negative news, including negative return-related volatility and higher economic uncertainty, has a greater impact on the long-term volatility components than positive news. During the financial crisis of 2008, economic uncertainty and realized volatility had a significant impact on long-term volatility components but did not constitute long-term volatility components during the 2015 A-share stock market crash and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The two-factor asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model outperformed the other two models in terms of explanatory power, fitting ability and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the long-term volatility component.

Research limitations/implications

Many GARCH series models can also combine the GARCH series model with the MIDAS method, including but not limited to Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH). These diverse models may exhibit distinct reactions to economic uncertainty. Consequently, further research should be undertaken to juxtapose alternative models for assessing the stock market response.

Practical implications

Our conclusions have important implications for stakeholders, including policymakers, market regulators and investors, to promote market stability. Understanding the asymmetric shock arising from economic uncertainty on volatility enables market participants to assess the potential repercussions of negative news, engage in timely and effective volatility prediction, implement risk management strategies and offer a reference for financial regulators to preemptively address and mitigate systemic financial risks.

Social implications

First, in the face of domestic and international uncertainties and challenges, policymakers must increase communication with the market and improve policy transparency to effectively guide market expectations. Second, stock market authorities should improve the basic regulatory system of the capital market and optimize investor structure. Third, investors should gradually shift to long-term value investment concepts and jointly promote market stability.

Originality/value

This study offers a novel perspective on incorporating a Chinese economic uncertainty index constructed by a high-dimensional FAVAR-SV model into the asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 February 2024

Shihui Fan and Yan Zhou

This study aims to investigate the impact of earnings predictability and truthfulness on nonprofessional investors’ investment willingness.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the impact of earnings predictability and truthfulness on nonprofessional investors’ investment willingness.

Design/methodology/approach

Earnings predictability is captured by quarterly earnings autocorrelation, and earnings truthfulness is indicated by real earnings management (REM). The average of investment attractiveness and willingness measures investment willingness. The authors use experiments to isolate the impact of quarterly earnings autocorrelation and REM on investors’ investment behaviors.

Findings

From the 2 × 2 design, the authors observe that investors weight more on earnings predictability than earnings truthfulness.

Research limitations/implications

The generalization of the findings may be constrained for the following reasons. First, the authors use only one proxy, REM, to measure earnings truthfulness. In addition, the authors provide the participants, Amazon Mechanical Turk, with earnings predictability. Results may no longer hold if each participant has different understanding and analysis of earnings predictability.

Practical implications

In periods of unprecedented and severe financial uncertainty (i.e. the COVID-19 pandemic), investors rely more on earnings predictability than on earnings truthfulness. The study assists managers to strategically emphasize the predictability of earnings to attract investors, especially when firms face financial challenges or uncertainty.

Social implications

This study contributes to understanding investor behavior and the critical role of earnings predictability and truthfulness in shaping investment decisions.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the literature of earnings properties in financial reporting, particularly by shedding light on the nuanced interplay between earnings predictability and earnings truthfulness. The research also demonstrates that elevated earnings autocorrelation indirectly stimulates investment willingness by enhancing the investors’ perception of earnings persistence of targeted firms.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Communicating Climate
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-643-6

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2023

Maqsood Ahmad and Qiang Wu

This study aims to use a qualitative approach to explore and clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the decisions and performance of individual investors…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to use a qualitative approach to explore and clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the decisions and performance of individual investors actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). It also aims to identify how to overcome the negative effect of heuristic-driven biases, so that finance practitioners can avoid the expensive errors which they cause.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts an interpretative approach. Qualitative data was collected in semistructured interviews, in which the target population was asked open-ended questions. The sample consists of five brokers and/or investment strategists/advisors who maintain investors’ accounts or provide investment advice to investors on the PSX, who were selected on a convenient basis. The researchers analyzed the interview data thematically.

Findings

The results confirm that investors often use heuristics, causing several heuristic-driven biases when trading on the stock market, specifically, reliance on recognition-based heuristics, namely, alphabetical ordering of firm names, name memorability and name fluency, as well as cognitive heuristics, such as herding behavior, disposition effect, anchoring and adjustment, repetitiveness, overconfidence and availability biases. These lead investors to make suboptimal decisions relating to their investment management activities. Due to these heuristic-driven biases, investors trade excessively in the stock market, and their investment performance is adversely affected.

Originality/value

This study provides a practical framework to explore and clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence investment management activities. To the best of authors’ knowledge, the current study is the first to focus on links between heuristic-driven biases, investment decisions and performance using a qualitative approach. Furthermore, with the help of a qualitative approach, the investigators also highlight some factors causing an increased use of heuristic variables by investors and discuss practical approaches to overcoming the negative effects of heuristics factors, so that finance practitioners can avoid repeating the expensive errors which they cause, which also differentiates this study from others.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 August 2023

Barkha Dhingra, Mahender Yadav, Mohit Saini and Ruhee Mittal

This study aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis to provide a comprehensive picture and identify future research directions to enrich the existing literature on behavioral…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis to provide a comprehensive picture and identify future research directions to enrich the existing literature on behavioral biases.

Design/methodology/approach

The data set comprises 518 articles from the Web of Science database. Performance analysis is used to highlight the significant contributors (authors, institutions, countries and journals) and contributions (highly influential articles) in the field of behavioral biases. In addition, network analysis is used to delve into the conceptual and social structure of the research domain.

Findings

The current review has identified four major themes: “Influence of behavioral biases on investment decisions,” “Determinants of home bias,” “Impact of biases on stock market variables” and “Investors’ decision-making under uncertainty.” These themes reveal that a majority of studies have focused on equity markets, and research on other asset classes remains underexplored.

Research limitations/implications

This study extracted data from a single database (Web of Science) to ensure standardization of results. Consequently, future research could broaden the scope of the bibliometric review by incorporating multiple databases.

Originality/value

The novelty of this research is to provide valuable guidance by evaluating the existing literature and advancing the knowledge base on the conceptual and social structure of behavioral biases.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

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