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Within the framework of EU policies and measures to develop a just and fair green energy transition model. This paper aims to offer valuable insights into a paramount concern not so well debated in the literature, i.e. the spatial variation of energy poverty.

This empirical analysis investigates the regional variation of energy poverty we draw on a sample of more than 300,000 Spanish households, extracted from the Spanish Household Budget Survey (HBS) for the period 2006–2022. To characterize the probability of a household finding itself in a situation of energy poverty the authors use a discrete choice univariate probit model.

The results confirm that energy poverty is a phenomenon that is asymmetrically distributed across Spain, and mainly occurs in un-densely populated regions. In addition, the findings demonstrate that the incidence of energy poverty drivers is highly heterogeneous across regions.

The paper ends with some recommendations for policymakers suggesting that countries need to design an energy poverty policy for the households that jointly pursue both a correct identification of vulnerable groups and a match with the type of measure to the characteristics of each region.

This study enhances previous research by considering the case of areas at a lower level of aggregation (i.e. on the NUTS two regions in Spain called autonomous communities) and offers the opportunity to tailor policies to those regions most in need. Furthermore, to provide a more realistic picture of the complex phenomenon of energy poverty, the authors use the information for the period 2006–2022 differentiating by economic micro-cycle. This timespan allows the authors to understand the dynamics of energy poverty in periods of economic crisis, including the effects of the 2008 crisis and the present global energy crisis.

This paper aims to propose a methodology for assessing an optimal portfolio of investment instruments that minimise the social costs of decarbonising economic activity while improving the environmental objectives proposed in EU legislation.

The methodology defines the net social cost of decarbonisation related to a portfolio of four instruments: installation of solar PV and wind generation, thermal insulation of households and deployment of heat pumps. The social cost is minimised by restricting it to the minimum level of the targets proposed in the Spanish National Energy and Climate Plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase generation from renewable sources and reduce energy consumption. The empirical approach also includes differences between regions according to the expected effect for instruments.

The application of this methodology to the environmental objectives defined in the current Spanish National Energy and Climate Plan for 2030 concludes that it is clearly possible to reduce the social cost of decarbonisation while improving environmental performance through a reorientation of investment instruments. In this case, such a reorientation would be based on a minimisation of efforts in thermal insulation of households and a maximisation of measures aimed at the installation of heat pumps.

The paper proposes a novel methodology for a social cost assessment that improves the allocation of a portfolio of environmental instruments. This portfolio could be extended in further work to include instruments related to transport or support for industrial decarbonisation, such as the deployment of renewable hydrogen, among others.