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Article
Publication date: 22 September 2023

Mustafa Raza Rabbani, M. Kabir Hassan, Syed Ahsan Jamil, Mohammad Sahabuddin and Muneer Shaik

In this study, the authors analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during…

Abstract

Purpose

In this study, the authors analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used a mix of wavelet-based approaches, including continuous wavelet transformation and discrete wavelet transformation. The analysis used data from the Geopolitical Risk index (GP{R), Dow Jones Sukuk index (SUKUK), Dow Jones Islamic index (DJII), Dow Jones composite index (DJCI), one of the top crude oil benchmarks which is based on the Europe (BRENT) (oil fields in the North Sea between the Shetland Island and Norway), and Global Gold Price Index (gold) from May 31, 2012, to June 13, 2022.

Findings

The results of the study indicate that during the COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict period geopolitical risk (GPR) was in the leading position, where BRENT confirmed the lagging relationship. On the other hand, during the COVID-19 pandemic period, SUKUK, DJII and DJCI are in the leading position, where GPR confirms the lagging position.

Originality/value

The present study is unique in three respects. First, the authors revisit the influence of GPR on global asset markets such as Islamic stocks, Islamic bonds, conventional stocks, oil and gold. Second, the authors use the wavelet power spectrum and coherence analysis to determine the level of reliance based on time and frequency features. Third, the authors conduct an empirical study that includes recent endogenous shocks generated by health crises such as the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as shocks caused by the geopolitical danger of a war between Russia and Ukraine.

Highlights

  1. We analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.

  2. The results of the wavelet-based approach show that Dow Jones composite and Islamic indexes have observed the highest mean return during the study period.

  3. GPR and BRENT are estimated to have the highest amount of risk throughout the observation period.

  4. Dow Jones Sukuk, Islamic and composite stock show similar trend of volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic period and comparatively gold observes lower variance during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict.

We analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.

The results of the wavelet-based approach show that Dow Jones composite and Islamic indexes have observed the highest mean return during the study period.

GPR and BRENT are estimated to have the highest amount of risk throughout the observation period.

Dow Jones Sukuk, Islamic and composite stock show similar trend of volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic period and comparatively gold observes lower variance during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Article
Publication date: 10 September 2018

Muneer Shaik and Maheswaran S.

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to propose a new robust volatility ratio (RVR) that compares the intraday high–low volatility with that of the intraday open–close…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to propose a new robust volatility ratio (RVR) that compares the intraday high–low volatility with that of the intraday open–close volatility estimator; and second, to empirically test the proposed RVR on the cross-sectional (CS) average of the constituent stocks of India’s BSE Sensex and US’s Dow Jones Industrial Average index to find the evidence of “excess volatility.”

Design/methodology/approach

The authors model the proposed RVR by assuming the logarithm of the price process to follow the Brownian motion. The authors have theoretically shown that the RVR is unbiased in the case of zero drift parameter. Moreover, the RVR is found to be an even function of the non-zero drift parameter.

Findings

The empirical results show that the analysis based on the RVR supports the existence of “excess volatility” in the CS average of the constituent stocks of India’s BSE Sensex and US’s Dow Jones index. In particular, the authors have observed that the CS average of individual constituent stocks of BSE Sensex is found to be more excessively volatile than the US’s Dow Jones index during the period of the study from January 2008 to September 2016, based on multiple k-day time window analysis.

Practical implications

The study has implications for the policy makers and practitioners who would like to understand the volatility behavior in the asset returns based on the RVR of this study. In general, the proposed model can be used as a specification tool to find whether the stock prices follow the random walk behavior or excessively volatile.

Originality/value

The authors contribute to the existing volatility literature in finance by proposing a new RVR based on extreme values of asset prices and absolute returns. The authors implement the bootstrap technique on RVR to find the estimates of mean and standard error for multiple k-day time windows. The RVR can capture the excess volatility by comparing two independent volatility estimators. This is possibly the first study to find the CS average of all the constituent stocks of BSE Sensex based on the RVR.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 45 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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