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This study aims to apply Benford’s law to examine the earnings management of companies listed in emerging ASEAN-5 countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

The authors follow Amiram et al. (2015) to measure deviations from Benford’s law of the first digits of numbers reported in financial statements. The authors use the Jones-modified performance-match model (Jones, 1991; Dechow et al., 1995; Kothari et al., 2005) to estimate accrual earnings management. The authors use a sample of 47,389 observations of listed companies in ASEAN-5 countries from 2006 to 2019. The authors also run ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions to test the hypotheses.

The authors find that the first digits of numbers reported in the financial statements of companies in the sample closely conform to Benford’s law. Further evidence shows that the deviation from Benford’s law is positively related to abnormal accruals. The relationship between deviation from Benford’s law and abnormal accruals is more pronounced for the post-international financial reporting standards adoption period. The results survive for some robustness checks.

The authors show that Benford’s law holds for financial statements of companies listed in the emerging ASEAN-5 countries.

Auditors could use Benford’s law as an analytical procedure to assess the risks of material misstatements. Also, other users could apply Benford’s law on audited financial statements to foresee undetected misstatements.

The authors provide original evidence that financial statements of ASEAN-5 countries follow Benford’s law. The evidence supports the usefulness of Benford’s law in developing markets.

This paper aims to examine how proportional appropriation systems affect the quality of financial reporting in entities controlled by local governments.

The authors examine this issue using the setting of Italian municipally owned entities (MOEs) following the implementation of a new accounting regulation that limits the spending power of the participating municipality when the owned entity reports losses. The authors apply Benford's law on net income figures using the Chi-square and Z-tests on the adjusted version of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) criterion to spot any sign of low data quality. The sample, which consists of 2,120 MOEs, covers the years 2010–2019 and is evenly divided into the periods pre- and post-policy introduction.

Widespread data anomalies were detected following the introduction of the new regulation for MOEs controlled by local governments. Evidence is stronger for entities owned entirely by municipalities. The results suggest that the extent of data manipulation grows as the municipality's ownership stake increases, consistent with the hypothesis that a decrease in spending power through the appropriation of financial resources affects earnings management practices in municipally controlled entities.

This paper sheds light on government-based accounting policies by documenting evidence of somewhat inefficient responses by those responsible for the preparation of financial statements on behalf of municipally owned entities, and, accordingly, insights are provided to help review these policies so as to forestall even indirectly detrimental repercussions on public services.

This paper extends prior research in public-sector earnings management by being the first to test whether MOEs manipulate their earnings as a consequence of participating municipalities' reduced spending capability. Understanding factors influencing earnings management practices driven by governments, other than political incentives, is still an open issue.

Recent advances in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) suggest two alternative approaches to account for unobserved heterogeneity and to distinguish between persistent and transient inefficiency. The first approach is the generalized true random effects (GTRE) model, and the second approach is an autoregressive inefficiency (ARI) model. This study compares them to highlight whether they capture similar inefficiency aspects.

Using recent methodological advances in SFA, the authors estimate the GTRE and the ARI models using a Monte Carlo experiment and two real datasets from two industries (banking and agriculture).

The authors find that the two models provide quite different results in terms of inefficiency persistence and overall inefficiency (combination of transient and persistent inefficiency), regardless of the dataset considered.

The study findings suggest that researchers should be careful when referring to these two models because they do not capture the same inefficiency aspects, even though they have the same conceptual basis. This work is a warning about the empirical aspects of the persistent and transient efficiency framework, in order to convey a consistent story to the reader on firms' performance.

Even though they are used in a large number of studies, the present paper contributes to the productivity and efficiency literature by providing the first comparison of the GTRE and the ARI models.

House price fluctuations send vital signals to many parts of the economy, and long-term predictions of house prices are of great interest to governments and property developers. Although predictive models based on economic fundamentals are widely used, the common requirement for such studies is that underlying data are stationary. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of alternative filtering methods for forecasting house prices.

We specifically focus on exponential smoothing with trend adjustment and multiplicative decomposition using median house prices for Sydney from Q3 1994 to Q1 2017. The model performance is evaluated using out-of-sample forecasting techniques and a robustness check against secondary data sources.

Multiplicative decomposition outperforms exponential smoothing at forecasting accuracy. The superior decomposition model suggests that seasonal and cyclical components provide important additional information for predicting house prices. The forecasts for 2017–2028 suggest that prices will slowly increase, going past 2016 levels by 2020 in the apartment market and by 2022/2023 in the detached housing market.

We demonstrate that filtering models are simple (univariate models that only require historical house prices), easy to implement (with no condition of stationarity) and widely used in financial trading, sports betting and other fields where producing accurate forecasts is more important than explaining the drivers of change. The paper puts forward a case for the inclusion of filtering models within the forecasting toolkit as a useful reference point for comparing forecasts from alternative models.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper undertakes the first systematic comparison of two filtering models for the Sydney housing market.

The adverse interactions between disruptions can increase the supply chain's vulnerability. Accordingly, establishing supply chain resilience to deal with disruptions and employing business continuity planning to preserve risk management achievements is of considerable importance. The aforementioned idea is discussed in this study.

This study proposes a multi-objective optimization model for employing business continuity management and organizational resilience in a supply chain for responding to multiple interrelated disruptions. The improved augmented e-constraint and the scenario-based robust optimization methods are adopted for multi-objective programming and dealing with uncertainty, respectively. A case study of the automotive battery manufacturing industry is also considered to ensure real-world conformity of the model.

The results indicate that interactions between disruptions remarkably increase the supply chain's vulnerability. Choosing a higher fortification level for the supply chain and foreign suppliers reduces disruption impacts on resources and improves the supply chain's resilience and business continuity. Facilities dispersion, fortification of facilities, lateral transshipment, order deferral policy, dynamic capacity planning and direct transportation of products to markets are the most efficient resilience strategies in the under-study industry.

Applying resource allocation planning and portfolio selection to adopt preventive and reactive resilience strategies simultaneously to manage multiple interrelated disruptions in a real-world automotive battery manufacturing industry, maintaining the long-term achievements of supply chain resilience using business continuity management and dynamic capacity planning are the main contributions of the presented paper.

The choice of a sales channel for fresh vegetables is an important decision a farmer can make. Typically, the farmers rely on their personal experience in directing the produce to a sales channel. This study examines how sales forecasting of fresh vegetables along multiple channels enables marginal and small-scale farmers to maximize their revenue by proportionately allocating the produce considering their short shelf life.

Machine learning models, namely long short-term memory (LSTM), convolution neural network (CNN) and traditional methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and weighted moving average (WMA) are developed and tested for demand forecasting of vegetables through three different channels, namely direct (Jaivasree), regulated (World market) and cooperative (Horticorp).

The results show that machine learning methods (LSTM/CNN) provide better forecasts for regulated (World market) and cooperative (Horticorp) channels, while traditional moving average yields a better result for direct (Jaivasree) channel where the sales volume is less as compared to the remaining two channels.

The price of vegetables is not considered as the government sets the base price for the vegetables.

The existing literature lacks models and approaches to predict the sales of fresh vegetables for marginal and small-scale farmers of developing economies like India. In this research, the authors forecast the sales of commonly used fresh vegetables for small-scale farmers of Kerala in India based on a set of 130 weekly time series data obtained from the Kerala Horticorp.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the changes of the scale of urban tourists in mainland China under the impact of COVID-19 and, specifically, the following questions: how did the scale of domestic tourists change nationwide and in the seven geographic regions? What are the differences in the changes among the seven geographic regions? What are the changes in the hot spot areas and spatial clustering of domestic tourists across the country?

Using the data of domestic tourist arrivals in 337 cities in mainland China from 2018 to 2021, this research analyzes the absolute differences and relative differences in the scale of domestic tourists nationwide and in seven geographic divisions with the help of indicators such as range analysis, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and explores the changes in the hot spot areas and spatial concentration degree of the spatial scale of domestic tourists nationwide under the influence of the epidemic using kernel density analysis and spatial auto-correlation analysis.

The absolute differences in all seven geographical divisions continue to increase during 2018–2021. The domestic tourism in southwest China is extremely uneven. Absolute differences in the northwest and northeast regions are relatively small, and the development in attracting domestic tourists is more balanced. Relative differences in southwest China are comparatively large, with the trend of uneven development being obvious. The northeast, northwest and eastern regions of China are small, and the development is more balanced. The popularity of domestic tourism in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, as well as the Yangtze River Delta region, continues to decline and then pick up in 2021. The inland southwest region became a new domestic tourism hot spot in 2021. The size of domestic tourists from 2018 to 2021 in mainland China cities shows a significant positive spatial correlation, and there is a spatial agglomeration phenomenon, but some regional agglomeration types change from 2018 to 2021.

The impact of the epidemic on the number and spatial scale of domestic tourism in China has been clarified, which makes up for the comparison of domestic tourism changes before and after the epidemic. A clear understanding of the changes in the number and spatial scale of domestic tourists in different regions after the epidemic is conducive to the development of domestic tourism revitalization strategies in accordance with the actual situation of each province and promotes the internal circulation of Chinese tourism.

This paper tries to clarify the quantitative scale of domestic tourism in different regions after the epidemic, which is conducive to the development of domestic tourism revitalization strategies in cities in different regions according to regional characteristics and the actual situation of each province and to promote the healthy operation of the internal circulation of tourism in China. This paper also tries to show the changes of domestic tourism market hot spots, agglomeration conditions changes before and after the outbreak and the clarity of tourists’ preference space changes.

Scale of domestic tourists; Absolute difference; Relative difference; Spatial hot spot distribution; Spatial agglomeration change

本文旨在探寻疫情影响下中国大陆城市游客规模演化规律, 具体而言, 疫情影响下, 全国及七大地理分区的国内游客量规模变化如何？七大地理地区的变化有何差异？以及疫情影响下, 全国国内游客空间规模的热点区域和空间集聚程度有何变化？

利用2018-2021年中国大陆337各城市的国内游客量数据, 借助极差、标准差、变异系数、赫芬达尔指等指标分析全国及七大地理分区国内游客规模的绝对差异和相对差异; 借助核密度分析、空间自相关分析等ArcGIS分析工具, 探寻疫情影响下全国国内游客空间规模的热点区域和空间集聚程度的变化情况。

①绝对差异方面, 七大地理分区的绝对差异均持续增大。西南地区的游客量的绝对差异巨大, 国内游发展极不均衡。西北地区、东北地区绝对差异相对较小, 在吸引国内游客方面发展较为均衡。②相对差异方面, 西南地区的国内游发展相对差异较大, 发展不均衡趋势明显; 东北地区、西北地区、华东地区的国内游发展相对差异较小, 发展较为均衡。③热点区域变化方面, 京津冀地区、长三角地区的国内旅游热度持续下降, 在2021年有所回升; 内陆西南地区在2021年成为新的国内游热点区域。④2018年至2021年城市国内游客量规模均呈现出显著的空间正相关的关系, 存在着空间集聚现象, 但部分区域集聚类型在2018到2021年间发生变化。

①理论意义：明晰了疫情对中国国内旅游人次的数量规模和空间规模的影响, 弥补了当前疫情前后国内旅游业变化对比的研究; 阐明了疫情前后中国城市国内游客空间格局的变化, 拓展了研究情景, 丰富了中国旅游业时空变化的相关研究。②实践意义：明晰了疫后不同地区国内旅游人次的数量规模和空间规模变化情况, 以及国内旅游市场热点变化和游客空间偏好变化, 有利于各地区城市对症下药, 制定符合各省份实际情况的国内旅游业振兴策略, 促进中国旅游业内循环。

Soft robots are known for their excellent safe interaction ability and promising in surgical applications for their lower risks of damaging the surrounding organs when operating than their rigid counterparts. To explore the potential of soft robots in cardiac surgery, this paper aims to propose an adaptive iterative learning controller for tracking the irregular motion of the beating heart.

In continuous beating heart surgery, providing a relatively stable operating environment for the operator is crucial. It is highly necessary to use position-tracking technology to keep the target and the surgical manipulator as static as possible. To address the position tracking and control challenges associated with dynamic targets, with a focus on tracking the motion of the heart, control design work has been carried out. Considering the lag error introduced by the material properties of the soft surgical robotic arm and system delays, a controller design incorporating iterative learning control with parameter estimation was used for position control. The stability of the controller was analyzed and proven through the construction of a Lyapunov function, taking into account the unique characteristics of the soft robotic system.

The tracking performance of both the proportional-derivative (PD) position controller and the adaptive iterative learning controller are conducted on the simulated heart platform. The results of these two methods are compared and analyzed. The designed adaptive iterative learning control algorithm for position control at the end effector of the soft robotic system has demonstrated improved control precision and stability compared with traditional PD controllers. It exhibits effective compensation for periodic lag caused by system delays and material characteristics.

Tracking the beating heart, which undergoes quasi-periodic and complex motion with varying accelerations, poses a significant challenge even for rigid mechanical arms that can be precisely controlled and makes tracking targets located at the surface of the heart with the soft robot fraught with considerable difficulties. This paper originally proposes an adaptive interactive learning control algorithm to cope with the dynamic object tracking problem. The algorithm has theoretically proved its convergence and experimentally validated its performance at the cable-driven soft robot test bed.

By using higher moments, this paper extends the quadratic local risk-minimizing approach in a general discrete incomplete financial market. The local optimization subproblems are convex or nonconvex, depending on the moment variants used in the modeling. Inspired by Lai et al. (2006), the authors propose a new multiobjective approach for the combination of moments that is transformed into a multigoal programming problem.

The authors evaluate financial derivatives with American features using local risk-minimizing strategies. The financial structure is in line with Schweizer (1988): the market is discrete, self-financing is not guaranteed, but deviations are controlled and reduced by minimizing the second moment. As for the quadratic approach, the algorithm proceeds backwardly.

In the context of evaluating American option, a transposition of this multigoal programming leads not only to nonconvex optimization subproblems but also to the undesirable fact that local zero deviations from self-financing are penalized. The analysis shows that issuers should consider some higher moments when evaluating contingent claims because they help reshape the distribution of global cumulative deviations from self-financing.

A detailed numerical analysis that compares all the moments or some combinations of them is performed.

The quadratic approach is extended by exploring other higher moments, positive combinations of moments and variants to enforce asymmetry. This study also investigates the impact of two types of exercise decisions and multiple assets.

Knowledge adoption is the key to effective knowledge exchange in virtual question-and-answer (Q&A) communities. Although previous studies have examined the effects of knowledge content, knowledge source credibility and the personal characteristics of knowledge seekers on knowledge adoption in virtual Q&A communities from a static perspective, the impact of answer deviation on knowledge adoption has rarely been explored from a context-based perspective. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of two-way deviation on knowledge adoption in virtual Q&A communities, with the aim of expanding the understanding of knowledge exchange and community management.

The same question and the same answerer often yield multiple answers. Knowledge seekers usually read multiple answers to make adoption decisions. The impact of deviations among answers on knowledge seekers' knowledge adoption is critical. From a context-based perspective, a research model of the impact of the deviation of horizontal and vertical answers on knowledge adoption is established based on the heuristic-systematic model (HSM) and empirically examined with 88,287 Q&A data points and answerer data collected from Zhihu. Additionally, the moderation effects of static factors such as answerer reputation and answer length are examined.

The negative binomial regression results show that the content and emotion deviation of horizontal answers negatively affect knowledge seekers' knowledge adoption. The content deviation of vertical answers is negatively associated with knowledge adoption, while the emotion deviation of vertical answers is positively related to knowledge adoption. Moreover, answerer reputation positively moderates the negative effect of the emotion deviation of horizontal answers on knowledge adoption. Answer length weakens the negative correlation between the content deviation of horizontal and vertical answers and knowledge adoption.

This study extends previous research on knowledge adoption from a static perspective to a context-based perspective. Moreover, information deviation is expanded from a one-way variable to a two-way variable. The combined effects of static and contextual factors on knowledge adoption are further uncovered. This study can not only help knowledge seekers identify the best answers but also help virtual Q&A community managers optimize community design and operation to reduce the cost of knowledge search and improve the efficiency of knowledge exchange.