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Article
Publication date: 13 March 2017

Samira Khodabandehlou and Mahmoud Zivari Rahman

This paper aims to provide a predictive framework of customer churn through six stages for accurate prediction and preventing customer churn in the field of business.

4778

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a predictive framework of customer churn through six stages for accurate prediction and preventing customer churn in the field of business.

Design/methodology/approach

The six stages are as follows: first, collection of customer behavioral data and preparation of the data; second, the formation of derived variables and selection of influential variables, using a method of discriminant analysis; third, selection of training and testing data and reviewing their proportion; fourth, the development of prediction models using simple, bagging and boosting versions of supervised machine learning; fifth, comparison of churn prediction models based on different versions of machine-learning methods and selected variables; and sixth, providing appropriate strategies based on the proposed model.

Findings

According to the results, five variables, the number of items, reception of returned items, the discount, the distribution time and the prize beside the recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) variables (RFMITSDP), were chosen as the best predictor variables. The proposed model with accuracy of 97.92 per cent, in comparison to RFM, had much better performance in churn prediction and among the supervised machine learning methods, artificial neural network (ANN) had the highest accuracy, and decision trees (DT) was the least accurate one. The results show the substantially superiority of boosting versions in prediction compared with simple and bagging models.

Research limitations/implications

The period of the available data was limited to two years. The research data were limited to only one grocery store whereby it may not be applicable to other industries; therefore, generalizing the results to other business centers should be used with caution.

Practical implications

Business owners must try to enforce a clear rule to provide a prize for a certain number of purchased items. Of course, the prize can be something other than the purchased item. Business owners must accept the items returned by the customers for any reasons, and the conditions for accepting returned items and the deadline for accepting the returned items must be clearly communicated to the customers. Store owners must consider a discount for a certain amount of purchase from the store. They have to use an exponential rule to increase the discount when the amount of purchase is increased to encourage customers for more purchase. The managers of large stores must try to quickly deliver the ordered items, and they should use equipped and new transporting vehicles and skilled and friendly workforce for delivering the items. It is recommended that the types of services, the rules for prizes, the discount, the rules for accepting the returned items and the method of distributing the items must be prepared and shown in the store for all the customers to see. The special services and reward rules of the store must be communicated to the customers using new media such as social networks. To predict the customer behaviors based on the data, the future researchers should use the boosting method because it increases efficiency and accuracy of prediction. It is recommended that for predicting the customer behaviors, particularly their churning status, the ANN method be used. To extract and select the important and effective variables influencing customer behaviors, the discriminant analysis method can be used which is a very accurate and powerful method for predicting the classes of the customers.

Originality/value

The current study tries to fill this gap by considering five basic and important variables besides RFM in stores, i.e. prize, discount, accepting returns, delay in distribution and the number of items, so that the business owners can understand the role services such as prizes, discount, distribution and accepting returns play in retraining the customers and preventing them from churning. Another innovation of the current study is the comparison of machine-learning methods with their boosting and bagging versions, especially considering the fact that previous studies do not consider the bagging method. The other reason for the study is the conflicting results regarding the superiority of machine-learning methods in a more accurate prediction of customer behaviors, including churning. For example, some studies introduce ANN (Huang et al., 2010; Hung and Wang, 2004; Keramati et al., 2014; Runge et al., 2014), some introduce support vector machine ( Guo-en and Wei-dong, 2008; Vafeiadis et al., 2015; Yu et al., 2011) and some introduce DT (Freund and Schapire, 1996; Qureshi et al., 2013; Umayaparvathi and Iyakutti, 2012) as the best predictor, confusing the users of the results of these studies regarding the best prediction method. The current study identifies the best prediction method specifically in the field of store businesses for researchers and the owners. Moreover, another innovation of the current study is using discriminant analysis for selecting and filtering variables which are important and effective in predicting churners and non-churners, which is not used in previous studies. Therefore, the current study is unique considering the used variables, the method of comparing their accuracy and the method of selecting effective variables.

Details

Journal of Systems and Information Technology, vol. 19 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1328-7265

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 December 2022

Aishwarya Narang, Ravi Kumar and Amit Dhiman

This study seeks to understand the connection of methodology by finding relevant papers and their full review using the “Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to understand the connection of methodology by finding relevant papers and their full review using the “Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses” (PRISMA).

Design/methodology/approach

Concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) columns have gained popularity in construction in recent decades as they offer the benefit of constituent materials and cost-effectiveness. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Decision Trees (DTs) are some of the approaches that have been widely used in recent decades in structural engineering to construct predictive models, resulting in effective and accurate decision making. Despite the fact that there are numerous research studies on the various parameters that influence the axial compression capacity (ACC) of CFST columns, there is no systematic review of these Machine Learning methods.

Findings

The implications of a variety of structural characteristics on machine learning performance parameters are addressed and reviewed. The comparison analysis of current design codes and machine learning tools to predict the performance of CFST columns is summarized. The discussion results indicate that machine learning tools better understand complex datasets and intricate testing designs.

Originality/value

This study examines machine learning techniques for forecasting the axial bearing capacity of concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) columns. This paper also highlights the drawbacks of utilizing existing techniques to build CFST columns, and the benefits of Machine Learning approaches over them. This article attempts to introduce beginners and experienced professionals to various research trajectories.

Details

Multidiscipline Modeling in Materials and Structures, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1573-6105

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 February 2024

Xin Huang, Ting Tang, Yu Ning Luo and Ren Wang

This study aims to examine the impact of board characteristics on firm performance while also exploring the influential mechanisms that help Chinese listed companies establish…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of board characteristics on firm performance while also exploring the influential mechanisms that help Chinese listed companies establish effective boards of directors and strengthen their corporate governance mechanisms.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses machine learning methods to investigate the predictive ability of the board of directors' characteristics on firm performance based on the data from Chinese A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in China during 2008–2021. This study further analyzes board characteristics with relatively strong predictive ability and their predictive models on firm performance.

Findings

The results show that nonlinear machine learning methods are more effective than traditional linear models in analyzing the impact of board characteristics on Chinese firm performance. Among the series characteristics of the board of directors, the contribution ratio in prediction from directors compensation, director shareholding ratio, the average age of directors and directors' educational level are significant, and these characteristics have a roughly nonlinear correlation to the prediction of firm performance; the improvement of the predictive ability of board characteristics on firm performance in state-owned enterprises in China performs better than that in private enterprises.

Practical implications

The findings of this study provide valuable suggestions for enriching the theory of board governance, strengthening board construction and optimizing the effectiveness of board governance. Furthermore, these impacts can serve as a valuable reference for board construction and selection, aiding in the rational selection of boards to establish an efficient and high-performing board of directors.

Originality/value

The study findings unequivocally demonstrate the superiority of nonlinear machine learning approaches over traditional linear models in examining the relationship between board characteristics and firm performance in China. Within the suite of board characteristics, director compensation, shareholding ratio, average age and educational level are particularly noteworthy, consistently demonstrating strong, nonlinear associations with firm performance. Within the suite of board characteristics, director compensation, shareholding ratio, average age and educational level are particularly noteworthy, consistently demonstrating strong, nonlinear associations with firm performance. The study reveals that the predictive performance of board attributes is generally more robust for state-owned enterprises in China in comparison to their counterparts in the private sector.

Details

Chinese Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-614X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 March 2023

Stewart Jones

This study updates the literature review of Jones (1987) published in this journal. The study pays particular attention to two important themes that have shaped the field over the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study updates the literature review of Jones (1987) published in this journal. The study pays particular attention to two important themes that have shaped the field over the past 35 years: (1) the development of a range of innovative new statistical learning methods, particularly advanced machine learning methods such as stochastic gradient boosting, adaptive boosting, random forests and deep learning, and (2) the emergence of a wide variety of bankruptcy predictor variables extending beyond traditional financial ratios, including market-based variables, earnings management proxies, auditor going concern opinions (GCOs) and corporate governance attributes. Several directions for future research are discussed.

Design/methodology/approach

This study provides a systematic review of the corporate failure literature over the past 35 years with a particular focus on the emergence of new statistical learning methodologies and predictor variables. This synthesis of the literature evaluates the strength and limitations of different modelling approaches under different circumstances and provides an overall evaluation the relative contribution of alternative predictor variables. The study aims to provide a transparent, reproducible and interpretable review of the literature. The literature review also takes a theme-centric rather than author-centric approach and focuses on structured themes that have dominated the literature since 1987.

Findings

There are several major findings of this study. First, advanced machine learning methods appear to have the most promise for future firm failure research. Not only do these methods predict significantly better than conventional models, but they also possess many appealing statistical properties. Second, there are now a much wider range of variables being used to model and predict firm failure. However, the literature needs to be interpreted with some caution given the many mixed findings. Finally, there are still a number of unresolved methodological issues arising from the Jones (1987) study that still requiring research attention.

Originality/value

The study explains the connections and derivations between a wide range of firm failure models, from simpler linear models to advanced machine learning methods such as gradient boosting, random forests, adaptive boosting and deep learning. The paper highlights the most promising models for future research, particularly in terms of their predictive power, underlying statistical properties and issues of practical implementation. The study also draws together an extensive literature on alternative predictor variables and provides insights into the role and behaviour of alternative predictor variables in firm failure research.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. 45 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 15 March 2021

Brett Lantz

Machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) have arisen as the availability of larger data sources, statistical methods, and computing power have rapidly and simultaneously…

Abstract

Machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) have arisen as the availability of larger data sources, statistical methods, and computing power have rapidly and simultaneously evolved. The transformation is leading to a revolution that will affect virtually every industry. Businesses that are slow to adopt modern data practices are likely to be left behind with little chance to catch up.

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a brief overview of machine learning and AI in the business setting. In addition to providing historical context, the chapter also provides justification for AI investment, even in industries in which data is not the core business function. The means by which computers learn is de-mystified and various algorithms and evaluation methods are presented. Lastly, the chapter considers various ethical and practical consequences of machine learning algorithms after implementation.

Details

The Machine Age of Customer Insight
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83909-697-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 December 2022

Xiaoguang Tian, Robert Pavur, Henry Han and Lili Zhang

Studies on mining text and generating intelligence on human resource documents are rare. This research aims to use artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques to…

2361

Abstract

Purpose

Studies on mining text and generating intelligence on human resource documents are rare. This research aims to use artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques to facilitate the employee selection process through latent semantic analysis (LSA), bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) and support vector machines (SVM). The research also compares the performance of different machine learning, text vectorization and sampling approaches on the human resource (HR) resume data.

Design/methodology/approach

LSA and BERT are used to discover and understand the hidden patterns from a textual resume dataset, and SVM is applied to build the screening model and improve performance.

Findings

Based on the results of this study, LSA and BERT are proved useful in retrieving critical topics, and SVM can optimize the prediction model performance with the help of cross-validation and variable selection strategies.

Research limitations/implications

The technique and its empirical conclusions provide a practical, theoretical basis and reference for HR research.

Practical implications

The novel methods proposed in the study can assist HR practitioners in designing and improving their existing recruitment process. The topic detection techniques used in the study provide HR practitioners insights to identify the skill set of a particular recruiting position.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first study that uses LSA, BERT, SVM and other machine learning models in human resource management and resume classification. Compared with the existing machine learning-based resume screening system, the proposed system can provide more interpretable insights for HR professionals to understand the recommendation results through the topics extracted from the resumes. The findings of this study can also help organizations to find a better and effective approach for resume screening and evaluation.

Details

Business Process Management Journal, vol. 29 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-7154

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 November 2022

Ibrahim Karatas and Abdulkadir Budak

The study is aimed to compare the prediction success of basic machine learning and ensemble machine learning models and accordingly create novel prediction models by combining…

Abstract

Purpose

The study is aimed to compare the prediction success of basic machine learning and ensemble machine learning models and accordingly create novel prediction models by combining machine learning models to increase the prediction success in construction labor productivity prediction models.

Design/methodology/approach

Categorical and numerical data used in prediction models in many studies in the literature for the prediction of construction labor productivity were made ready for analysis by preprocessing. The Python programming language was used to develop machine learning models. As a result of many variation trials, the models were combined and the proposed novel voting and stacking meta-ensemble machine learning models were constituted. Finally, the models were compared to Target and Taylor diagram.

Findings

Meta-ensemble models have been developed for labor productivity prediction by combining machine learning models. Voting ensemble by combining et, gbm, xgboost, lightgbm, catboost and mlp models and stacking ensemble by combining et, gbm, xgboost, catboost and mlp models were created and finally the Et model as meta-learner was selected. Considering the prediction success, it has been determined that the voting and stacking meta-ensemble algorithms have higher prediction success than other machine learning algorithms. Model evaluation metrics, namely MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2, were selected to measure the prediction success. For the voting meta-ensemble algorithm, the values of the model evaluation metrics MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2 are 0.0499, 0.0045, 0.0671 and 0.7886, respectively. For the stacking meta-ensemble algorithm, the values of the model evaluation metrics MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2 are 0.0469, 0.0043, 0.0658 and 0.7967, respectively.

Research limitations/implications

The study shows the comparison between machine learning algorithms and created novel meta-ensemble machine learning algorithms to predict the labor productivity of construction formwork activity. The practitioners and project planners can use this model as reliable and accurate tool for predicting the labor productivity of construction formwork activity prior to construction planning.

Originality/value

The study provides insight into the application of ensemble machine learning algorithms in predicting construction labor productivity. Additionally, novel meta-ensemble algorithms have been used and proposed. Therefore, it is hoped that predicting the labor productivity of construction formwork activity with high accuracy will make a great contribution to construction project management.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 31 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 6 September 2019

Vivian M. Evangelista and Rommel G. Regis

Machine learning methods have recently gained attention in business applications. We will explore the suitability of machine learning methods, particularly support vector…

Abstract

Machine learning methods have recently gained attention in business applications. We will explore the suitability of machine learning methods, particularly support vector regression (SVR) and radial basis function (RBF) approximation, in forecasting company sales. We compare the one-step-ahead forecast accuracy of these machine learning methods with traditional statistical forecasting techniques such as moving average (MA), exponential smoothing, and linear and quadratic trend regression on quarterly sales data of 43 Fortune 500 companies. Moreover, we implement an additive seasonal adjustment procedure on the quarterly sales data of 28 of the Fortune 500 companies whose time series exhibited seasonality, referred to as the seasonal group. Furthermore, we prove a mathematical property of this seasonal adjustment procedure that is useful in interpreting the resulting time series model. Our results show that the Gaussian form of a moving RBF model, with or without seasonal adjustment, is a promising method for forecasting company sales. In particular, the moving RBF-Gaussian model with seasonal adjustment yields generally better mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values than the other methods on the sales data of 28 companies in the seasonal group. In addition, it is competitive with single exponential smoothing and better than the other methods on the sales data of the other 15 companies in the non-seasonal group.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78754-290-7

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2022

Sanaz Faridi, Mahdi Madanchi Zaj, Amir Daneshvar, Shadi Shahverdiani and Fereydoon Rahnamay Roodposhti

This paper presents a combined method of ensemble learning and genetics to rebalance the corporate portfolio. The primary purpose of this paper is to determine the amount of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper presents a combined method of ensemble learning and genetics to rebalance the corporate portfolio. The primary purpose of this paper is to determine the amount of investment in each of the shares of the listed company and the time of purchase, holding or sale of shares to maximize total return and reduce investment risk.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the goals of the problem, a two-level combined intelligent method, such as a support vector machine, decision tree, network Bayesian, k-nearest neighbors and multilayer perceptron neural network as heterogeneous basic models of ensemble learning in the first level, was applied. Then, the majority vote method (weighted average) in the second stage as the final model of learning was collectively used. Therefore, the data collected from 208 listed companies active in the Tehran stock exchange (http://tsetmc.com) from 2011 to 2015 have been used to teach the data. For testing and analysis, the data of the same companies between 2016 and 2020 have been used.

Findings

The results showed that the method of combined ensemble learning and genetics has the highest total stock portfolio yield of 114.12%, with a risk of 0.905%. Also, by examining the rate of return on capital, it was observed that the proposed method has the highest average rate of return on investment of 110.64%. As a result, the proposed method leads to higher returns with lower risk than the purchase and maintenance method for fund managers and companies and predicts market trends.

Research limitations/implications

In the forthcoming research, there were no limitations to obtain research data were easily extracted from the site of Tehran Stock Exchange Technology Management Company and Rahvard Novin software, and simulation was performed in MATLAB software.

Practical implications

In this paper, using combined machine learning methods, companies’ stock prices are predicted and stock portfolio optimization is optimized. As companies and private organizations are trying to increase their rate of return, so they need a way to predict stock prices based on specific indicators. It turned out that this algorithm has the highest stock portfolio return with reasonable investment risk, and therefore, investors, portfolio managers and market timers can be used this method to optimize the stock portfolio.

Social implications

The homogeneous and heterogeneous two-level hybrid model presented in the research can be used to predict market trends by market timers and fund managers. Also, adjusting the portfolio with this method has a much higher return than the return on buying and holding, and with controlled risk, it increases the security of investors’ capital, and investors invest their capital in the funds more safely. And will achieve their expected returns. As a result, the psychological security gained from using this method for portfolio arrangement will eventually lead to the growth of the capital market.

Originality/value

This paper tries to present the best combination of stock portfolios of active companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange by using the two-level combined intelligent method and genetic algorithm.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 September 2023

Moh. Riskiyadi

This study aims to compare machine learning models, datasets and splitting training-testing using data mining methods to detect financial statement fraud.

4049

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to compare machine learning models, datasets and splitting training-testing using data mining methods to detect financial statement fraud.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a quantitative approach from secondary data on the financial reports of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the last ten years, from 2010 to 2019. Research variables use financial and non-financial variables. Indicators of financial statement fraud are determined based on notes or sanctions from regulators and financial statement restatements with special supervision.

Findings

The findings show that the Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT) model performs better than other machine learning models. The best original-sampling dataset compared to other dataset treatments. Training testing splitting 80:10 is the best compared to other training-testing splitting treatments. So the ERT model with an original-sampling dataset and 80:10 training-testing splitting are the most appropriate for detecting future financial statement fraud.

Practical implications

This study can be used by regulators, investors, stakeholders and financial crime experts to add insight into better methods of detecting financial statement fraud.

Originality/value

This study proposes a machine learning model that has not been discussed in previous studies and performs comparisons to obtain the best financial statement fraud detection results. Practitioners and academics can use findings for further research development.

Details

Asian Review of Accounting, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1321-7348

Keywords

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