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South-east Asia may align more with China in near term

Location:

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

A key finding is that 50.5% of respondents would pick China if forced to take sides in US-Chinese rivalry, up from 38.9% in 2023. China continues to be regarded as the most…

Eased travel to China will have limited success

Location:

CHINA

Measures include relaxed visa requirements and improved payment options. Visitors from some European and South-east Asian countries have joined a group of 17 other countries that…

ASEAN will pursue incremental engagement in Myanmar

Location:

MYANMAR

Myanmar’s junta for the first time accepted the invitation to have a ‘non-political’ representative at high-level ASEAN meetings, standing since its exclusion from such events…

Myanmar junta is at a crossroads

Location:

MYANMAR

The military government has in recent months lost considerable territory to its battlefield opponents, including ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) that have long fought the…

Russia’s ties with Iran will grow stronger

Location:

RUSSIA

War, sanctions and a mutual desire to overturn US-led regional security orders have pushed Moscow and Tehran closer together. Moscow desires to turn what has historically been a…

Inclusion will prove critical to Sudan peace process

Location:

SUDAN

The resulting ‘Addis Ababa Declaration’ has provoked stern scrutiny of Tagadom’s legitimacy, as well as broader reflection on the importance of a peace process that is genuinely…

US Africa policy will be largely on hold this year

Location:

UNITED STATES

Despite promises that Biden would visit Africa during 2023, he did not do so. The situation in Ukraine and then Gaza has left little space for development of Washington’s policy…

Biden's re-election campaign will now focus on Trump

Location:

UNITED STATES

In January, Biden shifted his re-election campaign into a higher gear, adding new personnel and a more direct focus on Donald Trump, whose success in Iowa and New Hampshire makes…

Chinese cybercampaigns will become disruptive

Location:

CHINA

These routers can compromise US critical infrastructure. This indicates that Chinese cyber operations are shifting from espionage to disruption.

Seoul-Havana relations will hurt Pyongyang

Location:

SOUTH KOREA/CUBA

South Korea’s business ties with Cuba have improved in recent decades, while Havana-Pyongyang relations have long been uneasy. Cuba’s decision came amid North Korea’s increasingly…