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Many entrepreneurs want to reach high to the heavens to achieve unlimited success. These hardworking, often underappreciated, venturers often crave fame and fortune as they strive to create their personal business legacy. One strategic path many have wandered down is that of the Initial Public Offering (IPO), whereby shares of the company are sold to the public. The IPO has many strong attractions. Large amounts of capital can be brought into the company.The company's stock can be used as currency to acquire other companies. Early investors realize a good ROI. Employees can perceive real value in their stock options. Customers, banks, vendors, and other stakeholders pay more respect to the company. Is this truly the entrepreneurʼs nirvana? Or is it a case of “Be careful of what you wish for because it may really come true?” Read on.

This article examines the accuracy and bias inherent in the wisdom of crowd effect. The purpose is to clarify what kind of bias crowds have when they make predictions. In the theoretical inquiry, the effect of the accumulated absolute deviation was simulated. In the empirical study, the observed biases were examined using data from forecasting foreign exchange rates.

In the theoretical inquiry, the effect of the accumulated absolute deviation was simulated based on mathematical propositions. In the empirical study, the data from 2004 to 2011 were provided by Nikkei, which holds the “Nikkei Yen Derby” competition. In total, 3,657 groups forecasted the foreign exchange rate, and the first prediction was done in early May to forecast the rate at the end of May. The second round took place in June in a similar manner.

The average absolute deviation in May was smaller than that in June. The first round of prediction was more accurate than the second round one. Predictors were affected by the observable real exchange rate, such that they modified their forecasts by referring to the actual data in early June. An actuality bias existed when the participants lost their diverse prospects. Since the standard deviations of the June forecasts were smaller than those of May, the fact-convergence effect was supported.

This article reports novel findings that affect the wisdom of crowd effect—referred to as actuality bias and fact-convergence effect. The former refers to a forecasting bias toward the observable rate near the forecasting date. The latter implies that predictors, as a whole, indicate smaller forecast deviations by observing the realized foreign exchange rate.

This study aims to analyze how different room-committing practices affect the occupancy and profitability of hotels and it critically reviews the role of minimum-length-of-stay (MLOS) requirements given these findings.

The approach uses statistical analysis of simplified contexts to develop understanding, and simulations of more complex situations to confirm the relevance in realistic contexts.

The study demonstrates that proper solutions of the room-committing problem improve occupancy and profitability, in particular, for hotels working in high-season and high-occupancy situations. Smart committing algorithms diminish the role of MLOS requirements. More demand can be accepted without sacrificing late-arriving long reservations.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this work, building upon a previous one cited in this paper, is the first to rigorously study the room-committing problem and to demonstrate its relevance in practical situations and its implications on MLOS rules.

In this paper, we consider a two color multi-drawing urn model. At each discrete time step, we draw uniformly at random a sample of m balls (m≥1) and note their color, they will be returned to the urn together with a random number of balls depending on the sample’s composition. The replacement rule is a 2 × 2 matrix depending on bounded discrete positive random variables. Using a stochastic approximation algorithm and martingales methods, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the urn after many draws.

To reminisce about my entrepreneurial career with appropriate self-importance, I might note that I have helped create companies and jobs. This contributes in a small way to economic growth. Economic growth is, however, an often illusive concept to characterize. Job growth is an essential component of a dynamic, innovative process. In the late 1970s jobs growth research suggested that the vast majority of new jobs are created by small business formation. Such empirical research is difficult to support with theoretical constructs. Classic macroeconomics analysis discounts size-offirm as irrelevant. Entrepreneurial contribution is therefore difficult to assess.

In many real-life situations, we do not know the exact values of the expected gain corresponding to different possible actions, we only have lower and upper bounds on these gains – i.e., in effect, intervals of possible gain values. The purpose of this study is to describe all possible ways to make decisions under such interval uncertainty.

The authors used both natural invariance and additivity requirements.

The authors demonstrated that natural requirements – invariance or additivity – led to a two-parametric family of possible decision-making strategies.

This is a first description of all reasonable strategies for decision-making under interval uncertainty – strategies that satisfy natural requirements of invariance or additivity.

Vehicle fault diagnosis is a key factor in ensuring the safe and efficient operation of the railway system. Due to the numerous vehicle categories and different fault mechanisms, there is an unbalanced fault category problem. Most of the current methods to solve this problem have complex algorithm structures, low efficiency and require prior knowledge. This study aims to propose a new method which has a simple structure and does not require any prior knowledge to achieve a fast diagnosis of unbalanced vehicle faults.

This study proposes a novel K-means with feature learning based on the feature learning K-means-improved cluster-centers selection (FKM-ICS) method, which includes the ICS and the FKM. Specifically, this study defines cluster centers approximation to select the initialized cluster centers in the ICS. This study uses improved term frequency-inverse document frequency to measure and adjust the feature word weights in each cluster, retaining the top τ feature words with the highest weight in each cluster and perform the clustering process again in the FKM. With the FKM-ICS method, clustering performance for unbalanced vehicle fault diagnosis can be significantly enhanced.

This study finds that the FKM-ICS can achieve a fast diagnosis of vehicle faults on the vehicle fault text (VFT) data set from a railway station in the 2017 (VFT) data set. The experimental results on VFT indicate the proposed method in this paper, outperforms several state-of-the-art methods.

This is the first effort to address the vehicle fault diagnostic problem and the proposed method performs effectively and efficiently. The ICS enables the FKM-ICS method to exclude the effect of outliers, solves the disadvantages of the fault text data contained a certain amount of noisy data, which effectively enhanced the method stability. The FKM enhances the distribution of feature words that discriminate between different fault categories and reduces the number of feature words to make the FKM-ICS method faster and better cluster for unbalanced vehicle fault diagnostic.

This paper aims mainly at introducing applied statisticians and econometricians to the current research methodology with non-Euclidean data sets. Specifically, it provides the basis and rationale for statistics in Wasserstein space, where the metric on probability measures is taken as a Wasserstein metric arising from optimal transport theory.

The authors spell out the basis and rationale for using Wasserstein metrics on the data space of (random) probability measures.

In elaborating the new statistical analysis of non-Euclidean data sets, the paper illustrates the generalization of traditional aspects of statistical inference following Frechet's program.

Besides the elaboration of research methodology for a new data analysis, the paper discusses the applications of Wasserstein metrics to the robustness of financial risk measures.