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This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this study is twofold: in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of parsimony (both from the perspective of the data and the complexity of the modeling), especially when a regular pattern in the time series is disrupted. This study shows that the CIR# not only performs better than the considered baseline models but also has a much lower error than other additional models or approaches reported in the literature.

Typically, tourism demand tends to follow regular trends, such as low and high seasons on a quarterly/monthly level and weekends and holidays on a daily level. The data set consists of nights spent in Italy at tourist accommodation establishments as collected on a monthly basis by Eurostat before and during the COVID-19 pandemic breaking regular patterns.

Traditional tourism demand forecasting models may face challenges when massive amounts of search intensity indices are adopted as tourism demand indicators. In addition, given the importance of accurate forecasts, many studies have proposed novel hybrid models or used various combinations of methods. Thus, although there are clear benefits in adopting more complex approaches, the risk is that of dealing with unwieldy models. To demonstrate how this approach can be fruitfully extended to tourism, the accuracy of the CIR# is tested by using standard metrics such as root mean squared errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error or average relative mean squared error.

The CIR# model is notably simpler than other models found in literature and does not rely on black box techniques such as those used in neural network (NN) or data science-based models. The carried analysis suggests that the CIR# model outperforms other reference predictions in terms of statistical significance of the error.

The proposed model stands out for being a viable option to the Holt–Winters (HW) model, particularly when dealing with irregular data.

The proposed model has demonstrated superiority even when compared to other models in the literature, and it can be especially useful for tourism stakeholders when making decisions in the presence of disruptions in data patterns.

The novelty lies in the fact that the proposed model is a valid alternative to the HW, especially when the data are not regular. In addition, compared to many existing models in the literature, the CIR# model is notably simpler and more transparent, avoiding the “black box” nature of NN and data science-based models.

一般来说, 旅游需求往往遵循规律的趋势, 例如季度/月的淡季和旺季, 以及日常的周末和假期。该数据集包括欧盟统计局在打破常规模式的2019冠状病毒病大流行之前和期间每月收集的在意大利旅游住宿设施度过的夜晚。

本研究旨在通过一个名为cir#的非线性单因素随机模型来预测意大利游客住宿设施的过夜住宿情况。这项研究的贡献是双重的:在预测准确性方面和在简洁方面(从数据和建模复杂性的角度来看), 特别是当时间序列中的规则模式被打乱时。我们表明, cir#不仅比考虑的基线模型表现更好, 而且比文献中报告的其他模型或方法具有更低的误差。

当大量搜索强度指标被作为旅游需求指标时, 传统的旅游需求预测模型将面临挑战。此外, 鉴于准确预测的重要性, 许多研究提出了新的混合模型或使用各种方法的组合。因此, 尽管采用更复杂的方法有明显的好处, 但风险在于处理难使用的模型。为了证明这种方法能有效地扩展到旅游业, 使用RMSE、MAE、MAPE或AvgReIMSE等标准指标来测试cir#的准确性。

cir#模型明显比文献中发现的其他模型简单, 并且不依赖于黑盒技术, 例如在神经网络或基于数据科学的模型中使用的技术。所进行的分析表明, cir#模型在误差的统计显著性方面优于其他参考预测。

这个模型作为Holt-Winters模型的一个拟议模型, 特别是在处理不规则数据时。

即使与文献中的其他模型相比, 所提出的模型也显示出优越性, 并且在数据模式中断时对旅游利益相关者做出决策特别有用。

创新之处在于所提出的模型是Holt-Winters模型的有效替代方案, 特别是当数据不规律时。此外, 与文献中的许多现有模型相比, cir#模型明显更简单、更透明, 避免了神经网络和基于数据科学的模型的“黑箱”性质。

Normalmente, la demanda turística tiende a seguir tendencias regulares, como temporadas altas y bajas a nivel trimestral/mensual y fines de semana y festivos a nivel diario. El conjunto de datos consiste en las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico recogidas mensualmente por Eurostat antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19, rompiendo los patrones regulares.

El presente estudio pretende predecir las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico mediante un modelo estocástico no lineal de un solo factor denominado CIR#. La contribución de este estudio es doble: en términos de precisión de la predicción y en términos de parsimonia (tanto desde la perspectiva de los datos como de la complejidad de la modelización), especialmente cuando un patrón regular en la serie temporal se ve interrumpido. Demostramos que el CIR# no sólo aplica mejor que los modelos de referencia considerados, sino que también tiene un error mucho menor que otros modelos o enfoques adicionales de los que se informa en la literatura.

Los modelos tradicionales de previsión de la demanda turística pueden enfrentarse a desafíos cuando se adoptan cantidades masivas de índices de intensidad de búsqueda como indicadores de la demanda turística. Además, dada la importancia de unas previsiones precisas, muchos estudios han propuesto modelos híbridos novedosos o han utilizado diversas combinaciones de métodos. Así pues, aunque la adopción de enfoques más complejos presenta ventajas evidentes, el riesgo es el de enfrentarse a modelos poco manejables. Para demostrar cómo este enfoque puede extenderse de forma fructífera al turismo, se comprueba la precisión del CIR# utilizando métricas estándar como RMSE, MAE, MAPE o AvgReIMSE.

El modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo que otros modelos encontrados en la literatura y no se basa en técnicas de caja negra como las utilizadas en los modelos basados en redes neuronales o en la ciencia de datos. El análisis realizado sugiere que el modelo CIR# supera a otras predicciones de referencia en términos de significación estadística del error.

El modelo propuesto destaca por ser una opción viable al modelo Holt-Winters, sobre todo cuando se trata de datos irregulares.

El modelo propuesto ha demostrado su superioridad incluso cuando se compara con otros modelos de la bibliografía, y puede ser especialmente útil para los agentes del sector turístico a la hora de tomar decisiones cuando se producen alteraciones en los patrones de datos.

La novedad radica en que el modelo propuesto es una alternativa válida al Holt-Winters especialmente cuando los datos no son regulares. Además, en comparación con muchos modelos existentes en la literatura, el modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo y transparente, evitando la naturaleza de “caja negra” de los modelos basados en redes neuronales y en ciencia de datos.

The increasing frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events could cause devastating consequences in tourism. Climate change–related extreme weather events and their relation to tourism is an emerging field for education and research. The purpose of this study is to categorize the impact of climate change on tourist destinations with regard to extreme weather-related risks in outdoor recreation and tourism. Managerial implications for policymakers and stakeholders are discussed.

To outline the risks from climate change associated with tourism, this study uses the Prisma analysis for identification, screening, checking for eligibility and finding relevant literature for further categorization.

Based on a thoroughly examination of relevant literature, risks and threats posed by climate change could be categorized into following four areas: reduced experiential value in outdoor winter recreation; reduced value in beach scenery and comfort; land degradation and reduced biodiversity; and reduced value in personal safety and comfort in tourism. It also focuses on the significance of using big data applications in catastrophic disaster management and risk reduction. Recommendations with technology and data analytics to continuously improve the disaster management process in tourism education are provided based on findings of this study.

Primary contributions of this study include the following: providing a summarized overview of the risks associated with climate change in terms of tourist experiential value for educational implications; and revealing the role of data analytics in disaster management in the context of tourism and climate change for tourism education.

This paper describes the parent–child relationships of upper-middle-class Chinese parents and their adolescent children who were “parachuted” to the United States for private high schools. With parents remaining in China and children in the United States, thousands of miles away, such a transnational educational arrangement complicates the already volatile parent–child relationships during the adolescent years. Through ethnographic interviews of 41 students and 33 parents, I demonstrate different forms of child–parent relationships in a transnational education setting: those who found that the further physical and temporal distance has brought the parent–child relationship closer through frequent communications, children who experienced “accelerated growth” yet questioned the necessity, and delicate parent–child relationships due to increasing transnational cross-cultural or intergenerational differences. These types of parent–child relationships are not comprehensive of all the lived experiences of the “parachute generation,” yet they shed new light on transnational education and the unintended emotional dimensions of educational migration. In a transnational context for an economically well-off group, parental absence or separation of children and parents is no longer a clear-cut concept and has different layers of meanings, taking into account the frequency of communication, duration of spring and winter breaks and the existence of third-party agents such as for-profit intermediaries (or educational consultants) and host families. The diverse patterns of parent–child relations reveal the heterogeneity and complexities of “doing family” across geographic spaces and global educational hierarchies, as well as the roles of communication technologies, the tempo of mobilities and educational intermediaries.

This systematic review paper aims to investigate seasonal ambient change’s impact on the incidence of falls among older adults.

The population, exposure, outcome (PEO) structured framework was used to frame the research question prior to using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis framework. Three databases were searched, and a total of 12 studies were found for inclusion, and quality appraisal was carried out. Data extraction was performed, and narrative analysis was carried out.

Of the 12 studies, 2 found no link between seasonality and fall incidence. One study found fall rates increased during warmer months, and 9 of the 12 studies found that winter months and their associated seasonal changes led to an increase in the incidence in falls. The overall result was that cooler temperatures typically seen during winter months carried an increased risk of falling for older adults.

Additional research is needed, most likely examining the climate one lives in. However, the findings are relevant and can be used to inform health-care providers and older adults of the increased risk of falling during the winter.

This study examines the relationship between demand forecasting error and retail inventory management in an uncertain supplier yield context. Replenishment is segmented into off-season and peak-season, with the former characterized by longer lead times and higher supply uncertainty. In contrast, the latter incurs higher acquisition costs but ensures certain supply, with the retailer's purchase volume aligning with the acquired volume. Retailers can replenish in both phases, receiving goods before the sales season. This paper focuses on the impact of the retailer's demand forecasting bias on their sales period profits for both phases.

This study adopts a data-driven research approach by drawing inspiration from real data provided by a cooperating enterprise to address research problems. Mathematical modeling is employed to solve the problems, and the resulting optimal strategies are tested and validated in real-world scenarios. Furthermore, the applicability of the optimal strategies is enhanced by incorporating numerical simulations under other general distributions.

The study's findings reveal that a greater disparity between predicted and actual demand distributions can significantly reduce the profits that a retailer-supplier system can earn, with the optimal purchase volume also being affected. Moreover, the paper shows that the mean of the forecasting error has a more substantial impact on system revenue than the variance of the forecasting error. Specifically, the larger the absolute difference between the predicted and actual means, the lower the system revenue. As a result, managers should focus on improving the quality of demand forecasting, especially the accuracy of mean forecasting, when making replenishment decisions.

This study established a two-stage inventory optimization model that simultaneously considers random yield and demand forecast quality, and provides explicit expressions for optimal strategies under two specific demand distributions. Furthermore, the authors focused on how forecast error affects the optimal inventory strategy and obtained interesting properties of the optimal solution. In particular, the property that the optimal procurement quantity no longer changes with increasing forecast error under certain conditions is noteworthy, and has not been previously noted by scholars. Therefore, the study fills a gap in the literature.

This study established a two-stage inventory optimization model that simultaneously considers random yield and demand forecast quality, and provides explicit expressions for optimal strategies under two specific demand distributions. Furthermore, the authors focused on how forecast error affects the optimal inventory strategy and obtained interesting properties of the optimal solution. In particular, the property that the optimal procurement quantity no longer changes with increasing forecast error under certain conditions is noteworthy, and has not been previously noted by scholars. Therefore, the study fills a gap in the literature.

The overall objective of this study is envisaged to provide decision makers with actionable insights and access to multi-risk maps for the most in-danger stave churches (SCs) among the existing 28 churches at high spatial resolution to better understand, reduce and mitigate single- and multi-risk. In addition, the present contribution aims to provide decision makers with some information to face the exacerbation of the risk caused by the expected climate change.

Material and data collection started with the consultation of the available literature related to: (1) SCs' conservation status, (2) available methodologies suitable in multi-hazard approach and (3) vulnerability leading indicators to consider when dealing with the impact of natural hazards specifically on immovable cultural heritage.

The paper contributes to a better understanding of place-based vulnerability with local mapping dimension also considering future threats posed by climate change. The results highlight the danger at which the SCs of Røldal, in case of floods, and of Ringebu, Torpo and Øye, in case of landslide, may face and stress the urgency of increasing awareness and preparedness on these potential hazards.

The contribution for the first time aims to homogeneously collect and report all together existing spread information on architectural features, conservation status and geographical attributes for the whole group of SCs by accompanying this information with as much as possible complete 2D sections collection from existing drawings and novel 3D drawn sketches created for this contribution. Then the paper contributes to a better understanding of place-based vulnerability with local mapping dimension also considering future threats posed by climate change. Then it highlights the danger of floods and landslides at which the 28 SCs are subjected. Finally it reports how these risks will change under the ongoing impact of climate change.

This research examines what motivates professional truck drivers to engage in eco-driving by linking their self-reports with objective driving scores.

Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is illustrated in an embedded, single-case study of a Finnish carrier with 17 of its truck drivers. Data are obtained through in-depth interviews with drivers, their fuel-efficiency scores generated by fleet telematics and a focus group session with the management.

Discrepancies between drivers’ intentions and eco-driving behaviors are illustrated in a two-by-two matrix that classifies drivers into four categories: ideal eco-drivers, wildcards, wannabes and non-eco-drivers. Attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control are examined for drivers within each category, revealing that drivers’ perceptions did not always align with the reality of their driving.

This study strengthens the utility of TPB through data triangulation while also revealing the theory’s inherent limitations in elucidating the underlying causes of its three antecedents and their impact on the variance in driving behaviors.

Managerial insights are offered to fleet managers and eco-driving solution providers to stipulate the right conditions for drivers to enhance fuel-efficiency outcomes of transport fleets.

This is one of the first studies to give a voice to professional truck drivers about their daily eco-driving practice.

This study’s fundamental objective is to assess climate change impact on reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) patterns in Egypt under the latest shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) of climate change scenarios. Additionally, the study considered the change in the future solar radiation and actual vapor pressure and predicted them from historical data, as these factors significantly impact changes in the ET_o.

The study utilizes data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to analyze reference ET_o. Six models are used, and an ArcGIS tool is created to calculate the monthly average ET_o for historical and future periods. The tool considers changes in actual vapor pressure and solar radiation, which are the primary factors influencing ET_o.

The research reveals that monthly reference ET_o in Egypt follows a distinct pattern, with the highest values concentrated in the southern region during summer and the lowest values in the northern part during winter. This disparity is primarily driven by mean air temperature, which is significantly higher in the southern areas. Looking ahead to the near future (2020–2040), the data shows that Aswan, in the south, continues to have the highest annual ET_o, while Kafr ash Shaykh, in the north, maintains the lowest. This pattern remains consistent in the subsequent period (2040–2060). Additionally, the study identifies variations in ET_o , with the most significant variability occurring in Shamal Sina under the SSP585 scenario and the least variability in Aswan under the SSP370 scenario for the 2020–2040 time frame.

This study’s originality lies in its focused analysis of climate change effects on ET_o, incorporating crucial factors like actual vapor pressure and solar radiation. Its significance becomes evident as it projects ET_o patterns into the near and distant future, providing indispensable insights for long-term planning and tailored adaptation strategies. As a result, this research serves as a valuable resource for policymakers and researchers in need of in-depth, region-specific climate change impact assessments.

The framework of this paper is financial mathematics and, more specifically, the control of data fraud and manipulation with their subsequent economic effects, namely, in financial markets. The purpose of this paper is to calculate the global loss or gain, which supposes, for the borrower, a change of the interest rate while the contracted loan is in force or, in another case, the loan has finished.

The methodology used in this work has been, in the first place, a review of the existing literature on the topic of manipulability and abusiveness of the loan interest rates applied by banks; in the second place, the introduction of a mathematical-financial analysis to calculate the interests paid in excess; and, finally, the compilation of several sentences issued on the application of the so-called mortgage loan reference index (MLRI) to mortgage loans in Spain.

There are three main contributions in this paper. First, the calculation of the interests paid in excess in the amortization of mortgage loans referenced to an overvalued interest rate. Second, an empirical application shows the amount to be refunded to a Spanish consumer when amortizing his/her mortgage loan referenced to the MLRI instead of the Euro InterBank Offered Rate (EURIBOR). Third, consideration has been made to the effects and the possible solutions to the legal problems arising from this type of contract.

This research is a useful tool capable of implementing the financial calculation needed to find out overpaid interests in mortgage loans and to execute the sentences dealing with this topic. However, a limitation of this study is the lack of enough sentences on mortgage loans referenced to the MLRI to get some additional information about the number of borrowers affected by these legal sentences and the amount refunded by the financial institutions.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that deviations in the payment of interests have been calculated when amortizing a mortgage.