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This paper assesses the environment of legitimacy by determining the role of institutional quality and policy uncertainty on the performance of five major South Asian stock markets (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal) using 21 years data from 2000 to 2020. The focus of this study is to approach the issue of the environment of legitimacy that leads to sustained market returns.

Panel cointegration tests of Kao and Pedroni are applied, and the Dynamic Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model is used to determine the estimates.

ADF P-Values of both Kao and Pedroni tests show that the panels are cointegrated; the statistical significance of the results of the Kao and Pedroni panel cointegration test confirms cointegration among the variables. After determining the most appropriate lag, the analysis is done using PVAR. The results indicate that institutional quality, policy uncertainty, and GDP positively affect stock market return. Meanwhile, government actions and inflation negatively affect stock market returns. On the other hand, stock market return positively affects institutional quality, government action, policy uncertainty, and GDP. While stock market return negatively affects inflation.

The sample is taken only from a limited number of South Asian countries, and the period is also limited to 21 years.

Based on our research findings, we have identified several policy implications recommended to enhance and sustain the performance of stock markets.

This paper uses a unique analytical tool, which gives a better insight into the problem. The value of this work lies in its findings, which also have practical implications and theoretical significance.

This paper analyzes the effects of the monetary stance on the media's favorable (or otherwise) attitude to the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) monetary policy using monthly data from 2011 to 2021. Monetary stance is a multivariate index based on the growth rates of money supply and domestic credit. A large set of articles published in five Vietnam daily newspapers are utilized to construct a view of the media's favorableness to the monetary policy.

This paper uses hand-collected data from 211 articles published in five newspapers from December 2011 to September 2021 in order to examine the relationship between the monetary stance and the media's favorableness to monetary policy. Following the studies of He and Pauwels (2008) and Xiong (2012), the authors constructed a multivariate stance index to capture most of the important changes in the SBV's monetary policy stance.

The study's main findings are that a change in monetary stance from easing to neutral/tightening, or from neutral to tightening, is greatly appreciated by the media. The study's findings are robust, especially in terms of alternative measures of the media's favorableness and monetary policy variables.

These findings have important policy implications for implementing SBV's monetary policy.

The main contribution of this paper is that the authors are the first to study the nexus of multivariate monetary stance and the media's favorableness to a central bank's non-inflation-targeting mandate. In particular, the study’s findings confirm that the SBV's multivariate monetary stance affects the media's favorableness, whereas the effect of inflation is statistically insignificant.

Based on the research of free trade agreements on alleviating service trade policy heterogeneity and its impact on manufacturing exports, this article aims to not only provide a basis for China's strategy of promoting regional economic integration, but also provide a policy reference for the manufacturing industry to expand the export market space.

This study uses the two principles of “answering” and “scoring” to quantify the indicators of service trade policy heterogeneity to test the relationship between heterogeneity of service trade policy, free trade agreement and manufacturing export.

According to empirical study, the export of Chinese manufacturing firms is severely hampered by the variety of service trade regulations, and the bigger the enterprise, the more hampered it is. In comparison to communications, transport and commerce, the financial industry's policy heterogeneity has a greater negative impact on certain industries. The major methods used to reduce the impact of service trade policy heterogeneity on manufacturing exports are product price increases and product quantity reductions. Also, by reducing the heterogeneity of service trade regulations and fostering industrial exports, the free trade agreement that China has signed can be quite successful. The open commitment in the area of national treatment, however, can reduce policy heterogeneity and advance manufacturing.

In the area of market access, the effect of export is superior to the open promise. Thus, in order to effectively support the stabilization of international trade, China should actively encourage the negotiation and signing of higher-quality and mutually beneficial free trade agreements.

The development of prefabricated buildings has become one of the primary solutions to transform the traditional construction industry around the world. Incentive policy is one of the important driving factors for the development of prefabricated building. The policy system in the field of prefabricated buildings needs to be improved urgently. However, there is still a dearth of research on how incentive policies exert impact on the development of prefabricated buildings. This paper aims to reveal the impact mechanisms of different types of policies on the development system of prefabricated buildings.

This study categorizes prefabricated building policies, constructs a system dynamics model of prefabricated building policies and conducts scenario simulations to examine the impact and sensitivity of different types of policies on the development system of prefabricated buildings.

The results show that compulsory policies play a greater role in the early stage of prefabricated building development and need to be withdrawn at the right time. Preferential and encouraging policies play an incentive role in the middle and later stages of prefabricated building development. Encouraging policies predominate in the later stage of prefabricated building development. Based on the research results, policy recommendations for prefabricated building development are put forward respectively from the government, developers and consumers.

The research results are expected to make up for the lack of clear policies paths in existing research and provide theoretical references for the formulation and optimization of future policies.

Taking advantage of distinctive text-based measures of climate policy uncertainty and firm-specific exposure to climate change, this study aims to examine the impact of firm-specific vulnerability on dividend policy.

To mitigate endogeneity, the authors apply an instrumental-variable analysis based on climate policy uncertainty as well as use additional analysis using propensity score matching and entropy balancing.

The authors show that an increase in climate policy uncertainty exacerbates firm-specific exposure considerably. Exploiting climate policy uncertainty to generate exogenous variation in firm-specific exposure, the authors demonstrate that companies more susceptible to climate change are significantly less likely to pay dividends and those that do pay dividends pay significantly smaller dividends. For instance, a rise in firm-specific exposure by one standard deviation weakens the propensity to pay dividends by 5.11%. Climate policy uncertainty originates at the national level, beyond the control of individual firms and is thus plausibly exogenous, making endogeneity less likely.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt in the literature to investigate the effect of firm-specific exposure on dividend policy using a rigorous empirical framework that is less vulnerable to endogeneity and is more likely to show a causal influence, rather than a mere correlation.

The authors construct an index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Greece using textual analysis and analyze its role in the 10-year Greek economic crisis.

To identify the causal relationship between various measures of economic activity and EPU in Greece, the authors use a sophisticated “shock-based” structural vector autoregressive identification scheme. Additionally, the authors use two additional models to ensure the robustness of the results.

EPU is negatively associated with domestic economic activity and economic sentiment, and positively with bond credit spreads. EPU is also estimated to have prolonged the crisis even in periods when macroeconomic imbalances were cured. The results are robust across various model specifications and different proxies of economic activity.

Brunnermeier (2017) observed that uncertainty may be central to understanding the evolution of the Greek crisis. Yet little attention has been paid to policy uncertainty in the existing long and growing literature on the Greek crisis. The authors attempt to fill this gap.

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on corporate sustainability [environmental, social and governance (ESG)] performance and aims to explore whether uncertainty-induced sustainability performance is influenced by the firm's life cycle (LC).

The study uses data from European non-financial firms listed during the period from 2002 to 2022 to extend the nascent literature regarding EPU and sustainability performance while applying a dynamic panel data regression analysis (Generalized Method of Moments - GMM System) on 11,462 firm-year observations of 1,869 European firms.

The authors find overwhelming evidence that policy uncertainty affects the sustainability performance of European firms. The firms restrict their environmental and governance-related activities and address immediate issues to survive during periods of high EPU. Conversely, the firms increase their social engagements to decrease uncertainty-induced information asymmetry. The authors' results show that the intensity and type of sustainability performance are also influenced by the firm's LC. The results imply that board gender diversity (BGD) increases while power concentration with the chief executive officer (CEO) decreases sustainability performance.

These findings have important implications for policymakers, potential investors, firm management and other stakeholders given the firms' access to resources and preferences to encounter uncertainty vary across different LC stages.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the role of the firm's LC in the relationship between policy uncertainty and sustainability performance in the European context.

Considering the frequency of extreme events, enhancing the global financial system's stability has become crucial. This study aims to investigate the contagion effects of extreme risk events in the international commodity market on China's financial industry. It highlights the significance of comprehending the origins, severity and potential impacts of extreme risks within China's financial market.

This study uses the tail-event driven network risk (TENET) model to construct a tail risk spillover network between China's financial market and the international commodity market. Combining with the characteristics of the network, this study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the factors influencing systemic risks in China's financial market and to explore the early identification of indicators for systemic risks in China's financial market.

The research reveals a strong tail risk contagion effect between China's financial market and the international commodity market, with a more pronounced impact from the latter to the former. Industrial raw materials, food, metals, oils, livestock and textiles notably influence China's currency market. The systemic risk in China's financial market is driven by systemic risks in the international commodity market and network centrality and can be accurately predicted with the ARDL-error correction model (ECM) model. Based on these, Chinese regulatory authorities can establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism to promptly identify contagion signs, issue timely warnings and adjust regulatory measures.

This study provides new insights into predicting systemic risk in China's financial market by revealing the tail risk spillover network structure between China's financial and international commodity markets.

This study aims to assess the predictive performance of various factors on Bitcoin returns, used for the development of a robust forecasting support decision model using machine learning techniques, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, the authors investigate the impact of the investor's sentiment on forecasting the Bitcoin returns.

This method uses feature selection techniques to assess the predictive performance of the different factors on the Bitcoin returns. Subsequently, the authors developed a forecasting model for the Bitcoin returns by evaluating the accuracy of three machine learning models, namely the one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), the bidirectional deep learning long short-term memory (BLSTM) neural networks and the support vector machine model.

The findings shed light on the importance of the investor's sentiment in enhancing the accuracy of the return forecasts. Furthermore, the investor's sentiment, the economic policy uncertainty (EPU), gold and the financial stress index (FSI) are the top best determinants before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, there was a significant decrease in the importance of financial uncertainty (FSI and EPU) during the COVID-19 pandemic, proving that investors attach much more importance to the sentimental side than to the traditional uncertainty factors. Regarding the forecasting model accuracy, the authors found that the 1D-CNN model showed the lowest prediction error before and during the COVID-19 and outperformed the other models. Therefore, it represents the best-performing algorithm among its tested counterparts, while the BLSTM is the least accurate model.

Moreover, this study contributes to a better understanding relevant for investors and policymakers to better forecast the returns based on a forecasting model, which can be used as a decision-making support tool. Therefore, the obtained results can drive the investors to uncover potential determinants, which forecast the Bitcoin returns. It actually gives more weight to the sentiment rather than financial uncertainties factors during the pandemic crisis.

To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to have attempted to construct a novel crypto sentiment measure and use it to develop a Bitcoin forecasting model. In fact, the development of a robust forecasting model, using machine learning techniques, offers a practical value as a decision-making support tool for investment strategies and policy formulation.

This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.

This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.

Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.

The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.

The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.