Search results

The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate how external debt vulnerability has affected the economy of emerging countries over time, with particular reference to Sub-Saharan African countries. It also deals with the policy issues associated with the economic effects.

The techniques of dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares are used in this investigation, covering the period 1990–2022. A panel of 43 Sub-Saharan African countries is used in the study.

The estimation results reveal that external debt vulnerability impacted negatively on economic growth, thus validating the concerns raised about the debt problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, the results revealed that domestic credit and openness of economy played a passive role and were therefore unable to cushion the adverse effect of debt vulnerability. Capital stock, however, stands out as the only variable that played a significant positive role in facilitating economic growth. The results are considered to be highly reliable for short-term forecast of economic growth and formulation of relevant policies.

Over the years, economic analysts and stakeholders have expressed concern about the inadequate ratio of foreign reserves to external debt in developing countries. The effect of this external debt vulnerability on the economy of these countries has yet to be given sufficient attention by researchers. In view of this perceived void, this current study is carried out to determine the economic and policy consequences of the problem.

This chapter examines the influence of external public borrowing resources on economic progress in Tunisia. The study focuses on two stages: First, the influence is studied in a direct sense and then in an indirect sense, i.e., through a transmission channel of this influence. By applying the autoregressive distributed technique with staggered lags (ARDL), over a period ranging from 1986 to 2019, the results showed that the influence of external borrowing resources on growth seems to be unfavorable in the short term but positive in the long term, hence the importance of the empirical technique chosen. Second, three interaction variables were tested, namely total government expenditure, government investment expenditure, and the real effective exchange rate. The results obtained call for better attention to the channels identified to maximize the positive influence of external public debt on the country's economic progress.

Debt sustainability and the growing level of external debt in sub-Saharan African (SSA) continue to be significant research priorities. This study aims to examine the corruption-external debt nexus in SSA economies and whether different levels of corruption better explain this relationship.

The panel quantile regression approach was applied to account for the heterogeneous effect of the exogenous variables on external debts. The research covers 30 years of panel data from 30 selected SSA economies for the period spanning from 2000 to 2021.

The empirical findings of the regression analysis demonstrate the heterogeneous influences of the exogenous variables on external debt. While there was a positive impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on external debts, corruption established a negative relationship with external debt from the 10th to the 80th quantile. The findings showed a positive link between trade openness and external debt, while they also showed a negative relationship between gross fixed capital formation and external debt.

It is implied that corruption “sands the wheels” of external debts in the selected SSA countries. Therefore, the amount of external debt that flows into SSA is inversely correlated with corruption activity.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first to use panel quantile regression to analyze how corruption affects debt dynamics across different levels of debt, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of how corruption affects debt dynamics. Based on the findings of this study, SSA countries should create enabling environments to attract FDI inflows and to continue to drive domestic revenue mobilization and capital so as to be less dependent on external debts.

The world has seen significant level of emergence of the developing nations over the years. But the world has been going through certain economic crises – be it the worldwide recession of 2008 – that had a worldwide impact, be it the ongoing depression in economic activities since 2018–2019 due to several economic issues. Under these circumstances, how far these developing nations have been able to cope up with is an issue of worry. Can they overcome these depressions or recessions and get on the sustainable path of progress again and compete at par with the developed nations? In this chapter, we have used multiple regression analysis to analyse how far and to what extent these recessions have had impact on the exchange rates (ERs) and other important variables, including growth, of the selected eight developing nations. By taking ER as our dependent variable and five important macroeconomic indicators as regressors, we have checked if the recession caused any structural breaks in these economies or not. We have found the significant impact of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and trade balance on ER, while the effects of net foreign direct investment (FDI) and rate of interest were not significant. By applying Chow test, we have seen that there is existence of structural breaks in these economies over the period of 2007–2010. These breaks can be attributed to the global recession as well as economic activities prior to the recession. We have also conducted few diagnostic tests to prove the robustness of our analysis.

This paper aims to assess the factors that may explain the International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) convergence, considering Hofstede’s cultural dimensions as the theoretical reference for the cultural approach proposed. Additional factors include countries’ contextual and macroeconomic characteristics.

Logistic and probit regression models were used to identify the factors that may explain the IPSAS (fully or adapted) use by countries, including 166 countries in this assessment (59 for those whose cultural dimensions are available).

The findings consistently indicate collectivism and indebtedness levels as explanatory factors, providing insights into cultural dimensions along with macroeconomic characteristics as a relevant factor of countries’ convergence to IPSAS.

There are different levels of IPSAS convergence by countries that were not considered. This aspect may hide different countries’ characteristics that may explain those options, which could not be distinguished in this paper.

As a result of this paper, the International Public Sector Accounting Standards Board may gain insights that can be applied within the IPSAS due process to overcome the main challenges when collaborating with national authorities to achieve a high level of convergence. This analysis may include how to accommodate countries’ cultural differences as well as their contextual and macroeconomic characteristics.

There is a trend of moving toward accrual-based accounting standards by countries. Because the public sector embraces a new culture following the IPSAS path, it is relevant to assess if there are cultural factors, besides contextual and macroeconomic characteristics, that may explain the countries’ convergence to those standards.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first cross-country analysis on the likely influence of cultural dimensions on IPSAS convergence as far as the authors’ knowledge.

South Africa had formally introduced a policy of inflation targeting (IT) in February 2000. By December 2001, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank, after reading the latest statistics, was concerned with the disappointing economic data. Economic activity had slowed drastically, to the point that the country appeared to be heading for a recession. The gloomy statistics forced the governor to consider whether the country had pursued the right policy. Persistently high unemployment, one legacy of the apartheid era, meant that South Africa did not have the luxury of waiting for new policies to bear fruit. With the inflation forecast to exceed the mandated target, the governor would have to tighten monetary policy, which would further restrict investment. Was it is time for South Africa to change course?

Given the difficulties in finding significant exchange rate exposure in the extant literature, this paper attempts to resolve the so-called “exposure puzzle” by investigating whether currency movements have any significant impact on international industry returns.

This paper utilizes the multivariate Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) methodology to estimate both symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposures for each industry common across 12 countries simultaneously.

The empirical results show that exchange rate exposure is not only statistically significant but also economically important based on the estimation of an asymmetric three-factor exposure model using MGARCH methodology. This is an extremely important finding as it suggests that the “exposure puzzle” may not be a puzzle at all once a better methodology is utilized in the estimation.

Because this study tries to resolve the exchange rate exposure puzzle by focusing on whether exchange rate movements affect ex-post returns as opposed to ex ante expected returns and given the significant exposures with respect to different risk factors found in the study, it is interesting to see if any of these risk factors commands a risk premium. In other words, a natural extension of this study is to test whether any of these risk factors is priced in international industry returns.

The findings of the study have interesting implications for international investors who would like to diversify their portfolios across different industries and are concerned about whether the unexpected movements in the bilateral exchange rates will affect their portfolio returns in addition to its interest rate and world market risk exposures.

The study utilizes the MGARCH methodology, which has not been fully exploited in the exchange rate exposure literature.