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This paper aims to examine the long run impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on economic growth in the Sub Saharan African (SSA) region. The direct impact of ICTs use was examined for a 27-year period (1990-2014), before the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) era (1990-1999) and during the MDGs era (2000-2014). Second and third objectives examined the nonlinear effect of ICT in the economic growth and their threshold values, respectively. The main growth enhancing transmission channels of ICT use were also looked at.

The study uses panel method technique of system generalist method of moment. The data period was collected from the years 1990-2014 from 45 SSA countries. The three main proxies of ICT are fixed telephone lines, mobile phone users and internet users per 100 inhabitants.

For the direct impact analysis, mobile phone and internet were found to have triggered economic growth. However, for nonlinear effect analysis, mass penetration of ICT proxies seems to slow economic growth. The threshold analysis showed a penetration rate threshold of 4.5 per cent for both mobile phone and internet, and 5 per cent for fixed telephone line before economic growth gets triggered. Finally, the results indicated that, except for financial development, human capital, institutional quality and domestic investment were the main growth enhancing transmission channels of ICTs use in the economy.

From a policy perspective, results suggest SSA region to open more doors for investment in technology to ensure sustainable development. Such policy has to focus on investment into main transmission channels of ICT, namely, human capital, institutional quality and domestic investment. The policymakers have to ensure that penetration of mobile phone, fixed telephone and internet is met by improvement in human capital, institutional quality and domestic investment. Moreover, to fully use the potential of ICT, improving the financial sector is highly recommended.

In SSA, studies that address the impact of ICT on economic growth was almost non-existent, especially on its nonlinear effect and main transmission channels. While few studies have examined the direct impact of ICT, this study extended the scope by including the main growth enhancing transmission channels and nonlinear effect of ICT on SSA economies using recent data.

Panel data-based demand forecasting models have been widely adopted in various industrial settings over the past few decades. Despite being a highly versatile and intuitive method, in the literature, there is a lack of comprehensive review examining the strengths, the weaknesses, and the industrial applications of panel data-based demand forecasting models. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap by reviewing and exploring the features of various main stream panel data-based demand forecasting models. A novel process, in the form of a flowchart, which helps practitioners to select the right panel data models for real world industrial applications, is developed. Future research directions are proposed and discussed.

It is a review paper. A systematically searched and carefully selected number of panel data-based forecasting models are examined analytically. Their features are also explored and revealed.

This paper is the first one which reviews the analytical panel data models specifically for demand forecasting applications. A novel model selection process is developed to assist decision makers to select the right panel data models for their specific demand forecasting tasks. The strengths, weaknesses, and industrial applications of different panel data-based demand forecasting models are found. Future research agenda is proposed.

This review covers most commonly used and important panel data-based models for demand forecasting. However, some hybrid models, which combine the panel data-based models with other models, are not covered.

The reviewed panel data-based demand forecasting models are applicable in the real world. The proposed model selection flowchart is implementable in practice and it helps practitioners to select the right panel data-based models for the respective industrial applications.

This paper is the first one which reviews the analytical panel data models specifically for demand forecasting applications. It is original.

The paper investigates the determinants of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) bias of the wage return to graduate education for high-school workers in Portugal.

The study uses matched employer-employee data for Portugal, over the 2002–2012 period, to estimate a wage-schooling model that controls not only for individual observed characteristics, firm observed characteristics and year fixed effects, but also for three high-dimensional vectors of fixed effects – one for employees, one for employers and one for job titles.

The main results are the following. First, disregarding individual fixed effects is highly problematic, accounting for 48.5% of the OLS bias. Second, disregarding firm fixed effects is also problematic, accounting for 12.3% of the OLS bias.

The implication for the studies in the labor-supply literature that estimate, by means of instrumental variables, the wage returns to in-school work or to on-the-job schooling is that an instrument dealing with employee’s unobserved ability only may fail to meet the exclusion restriction.

Take the typical instrument based on a policy reform that changes the compulsory schooling level in the population. This instrument may well be argued to be correlated with the education of the employee and uncorrelated with the unobserved ability of the employee, but unfortunately it cannot be seen as orthogonal to the unobserved ability of the employer because of its correlation with the (unobserved) education of the manager. This is a simple corollary of the fact that the employee and the manager belong, in general, to the same population.

Individuals invest a considerable amount of resources in education, which is seen to have positive effects on several dimensions of individual life. Yet, the estimation of these effects is still surrounded by technical difficulties.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that uses the Gelbach decomposition to investigate the determinants of the OLS bias of the wage return to graduate education for high-school workers.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of one productive development program (PROPYME) in a developing nation like Costa Rica. This program seeks to increase the capacity of small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) to innovate.

Impacts have been estimated assuming that beneficiary firms are trying to maximize their profits and that PROPYME aims to increase these firms productivity. The impacts were measured in terms of three result variables real average wages employment demand and the probability of exporting. A combination of fixed effects and propensity score matching techniques was used in estimations to correct for any selection bias. The authors worked with panel data companies treated and untreated for the period 2001-2011.

PROPYME’s beneficiaries performed better than other firms in terms of labor demand and their probability of exporting. In addition, the dose and the duration of the effects of the treatment (timing effects) are important.

The authors study the impact in ways that go beyond the average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) usually estimated in the existing literature. Specifically, the research focusses on the identification of the timing or dynamic effects (i.e. how long should we wait to see results?) and treatment intensity (dosage effects).

Se estima el impacto de un programa de desarrollo productivo (Propyme) en un país en vías de desarrollo como Costa Rica. El Propyme busca incrementar la capacidad innovadora de las pequeñas y medidas empresas (pymes) costarricenses.

el impacto se ha estimado y evaluado asumiendo que las pymes beneficiaras buscan maximizar sus beneficios y que Propyme se enfoca en incrementar la productividad de esas empresas. El impacto se valoró en función de tres variables: salarios reales medios, empleo demandado y la probabilidad de exportar. Se utilizó una combinación de técnicas de efectos fijos y emparejamiento en las estimaciones con el fin de prevenir sesgos de selección. Se trabajó con un panel de datos, incluyendo empresas tratadas (beneficiarias de Propyme) así como no tratadas para el periodo 2001-2011.

los beneficiarios de Propyme tuvieron mejor desempeño que las restantes empresas en términos de empleo demandado y su posibilidad de exportar. Adicionalmente los efectos dinámicos (dosis y duración) de los tratamientos son importantes.

este artículo evalúa el impacto de una forma que va más allá de lo usual en la literatura por medio de los efectos promedios de los tratamientos sobre los beneficiarios. Esto por cuanto se enfoca en efectos dinámicos como la duración así como la intensidad.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between the ratification of the United Nations’ (UN’s) Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) and women’s and girls’ health outcomes using a unique longitudinal data set of 192 UN-member countries that encompasses the years from 1980 to 2011.

The authors focus on the impact of CEDAW ratification, number of reports submitted after ratification, years passed since ratification, and the dynamic impact of CEDAW ratification by utilizing ordinary least squares (OLS) and panel fixed effects methods. The study investigates the following women’s and girls’ health outcomes: total fertility rate, adolescent fertility rate, infant mortality rate, maternal mortality ratio, neonatal mortality rate, female life expectancy at birth (FLEB), and female to male life expectancy at birth.

The OLS and panel country and year fixed effects models provide evidence that the impact of CEDAW ratification on women’s and girls’ health outcomes varies by global regions. While the authors find no significant gains in health outcomes in European and North-American countries, the countries in the Northern Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Africa, Caribbean and Central America, South America, Middle-East, Eastern Asia, and Oceania regions experienced the biggest gains from CEDAW ratification, exhibiting reductions in total fertility, adolescent fertility, infant mortality, maternal mortality, and neonatal mortality while also showing improvements in FLEB. The results provide evidence that both early commitment to CEDAW as measured by the total number of years of engagement after the UN’s 1980 ratification and the timely submission of mandatory CEDAW reports have positive impacts on women’ and girls’ health outcomes. Several sensitivity tests confirm the robustness of main findings.

This study is the first comprehensive attempt to explore the multifaceted relationships between CEDAW ratification and female health outcomes. The study significantly expands on the methods of earlier research and presents novel methods and findings on the relationship between CEDAW ratification and women’s health outcomes. The findings suggest that the impact of CEDAW ratification significantly depends on the country’s region. Furthermore, stronger engagement with CEDAW (as indicated by the total number of years following country ratification) and the submission of the required CEDAW reports (as outlined in the Convention’s guidelines) have positive impacts on women’s and girls’ health outcomes.

This study investigates how enhancing information and communication technology (ICT) affects female economic participation in sub-Saharan African nations.

Three female economic participation indicators are used, namely female labour force participation, female unemployment and female employment rates. The engaged ICT variables are fixed broadband subscriptions, mobile phone penetration and Internet penetration. The Generalized Method of Moments is used for the empirical analysis.

The following main findings are established: First, there is a (1) negative net effect in the relevance of fixed broadband subscriptions in female labour force participation and female unemployment and (2) positive net effects from the importance of fixed broadband subscriptions on the female employment rate. Secondly, an extended analysis is used to establish thresholds at which the undesirable net negative effect on female labour force participation can be avoided. From the corresponding findings, a fixed broadband subscription rate of 9.187 per 100 people is necessary to completely dampen the established net negative effect. Hence, the established threshold is the critical mass necessary for the enhancement of fixed broadband subscriptions to induce an overall positive net effect on the female labour force participation rate.

This study complements the extant literature by assessing how increasing penetration levels of ICT affect female economic inclusion and by extension, thresholds necessary for the promotion of ICT to increase female economic inclusion.

This paper aims to test the significance of unobservable firm-specific effects on a capital structure model.

The paper employs the restricted least squares method to test the significance of unobservable firm-specific effects in a fixed effects model that includes unobservable effects against a pooled ordinary least squares model that excludes unobservable effects.

The empirical findings indicate that models that include unobservable firm-specific effects are correctly specified.

The limitation of this study comes from lack of data to measure unobservable effects such as managerial ability or managerial skills. Future research can develop index measures of managerial ability or managerial skills and borrow from management theory to explain the connection between managerial ability or managerial skills and firms' capital structure.

The findings imply that a capital structure model that excludes firm-specific effects could be mis-specified because such a model does not control for unobservable firm-specific factors such as managerial ability or managerial skills which have significant effects on firms' capital structure decisions.

The findings are important because the paper applies the restricted least squares method to test the significance of unobservable firm-specific effects. This technique has not been applied previously. The paper contributes to capital structure research in the fast growing South Africa.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate benefits to debt reduction by using the natural experiment provided by the debt relief programs: the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative launched by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in 1996 and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative extension in 2005.

The authors apply a time-shifted difference-in-differences strategy to evaluate the effects of this intervention. The date of each country’s decision to participate in the program is used as one treatment point while the date of the completion of the debt relief program is used as another treatment point. The exercise compares different economic outcomes such as domestic and foreign investment, schooling, and employment of the treated observations to the counterfactual of untreated country-years. The period between the decision and completion points is a short run while the period after the completion point is considered a long run.

The authors found that debt relief increased capital investment as much as 1.63 percent in the short run and 5.79 percent in the long run. However, there was no effect on foreign direct investment suggesting that debt overhang does not affect incentives of foreign investors. Output and schooling enrollment increased both in the short and long run.

This paper exploits a natural experiment of debt relief in a number of developing countries to shed light on the possible benefits to debt reduction. The authors are able to separate the short- and long-run effects of debt reduction. The finding that domestic but not foreign investment responds to debt reduction is suggestive of the differences in incentives across these two sources of investment.

While the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth during the Cold War period is well-researched, relatively less is known on the issue for the post-Cold War era. Equally how the relationship varies with respect to exposure to conflict is also not fully examined. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal impact of military expenditure on growth in the presence of internal and external threats for the period 1990-2013 using data from 70 developing countries.

The main estimates are based on the generalized method of moments (GMM) regression model. But for comparison purposes, the authors also report estimates using fixed and random effects as well as pooled cross-section regressions. The regression specification accounts for non-linear effect of military expenditure allowing for interaction with conflict variable (where distinction is made between external and internal conflict).

The analysis indicates that methods as well as model specification matter in studying the effect of military spending on growth. Full sample estimates based on GMM, fixed, and random effects models suggest a negative and statistically significant effect of military expenditure. However, fixed effects estimate becomes insignificant for low-income countries. The effect of military spending is also insignificant in the cross-sectional OLS model if conflict is not considered. When the regression model additionally controls for conflict, the effect of military spending conditional upon (internal) conflict exposure is significant and positive. No such effect is present conditional upon external threat.

One important limitation of the analysis is the small sample size – the authors had to restrict analysis to 70 low and middle-income countries for which the authors could construct post-Cold War panel data on military expenditure along with information on armed conflict exposure (the later from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 2015).

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper to examine the joint impact of military expenditure and conflict on economic growth in post-Cold War period in a sample of developing countries. Moreover, an attempt is made to review and revisit the large Cold War literature where studies vary considerably in terms findings. A key reason for this is the somewhat ad hoc choice of econometric methods – most rely on cross-section data and rarely conduct sensitivity analysis. The authors instead rely on panel data estimates but also report results based on naïve models for comparison purposes.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of crime on apartment prices for Hamburg, Germany, for the years 2012 to 2017.

The authors use a panel data setting with fixed effects estimators and temporal lags to moderate the endogeneity concerns related to crime. The authors consider the effect of total crime, violent and property crime and some sub-categories of crime.

The estimates show that it takes two to three years for prices to react, with the longer run elasticity reaching −0.12 for total crime, −0.15 for property crime and −0.06 for violent crime. The elasticities are much larger in high-crime areas (−0.22 for total crime, −0.28 and −0.09 for property and violent crime) and elevated also in low-income areas.

The finding that property crime matters more in terms of quantitative impact for housing values than violent crime provides reasonable grounds for rethinking the resource allocation of public spending on crime clearance and prevention in Germany. Far more emphasis on preventing property crime appears in order and especially so in the lower income or higher crime areas, which are significantly more affected by crime and in particular property crime than those in high income or low crime areas.

The estimates for Hamburg provide the first detailed results of the impact of crime on real estate prices in Germany. It is also the first study for Continental Europe using panel data.