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Article
Publication date: 24 October 2019

Farman Afzal, Shao Yunfei, Muhammad Sajid and Fahim Afzal

Cost overrun is inherent to project chaos, which is one of the key drivers of project failure. The purpose of this paper is to explore the critical elements of complexity-risk…

Abstract

Purpose

Cost overrun is inherent to project chaos, which is one of the key drivers of project failure. The purpose of this paper is to explore the critical elements of complexity-risk interdependency for cost-chaos in the construction management domain by utilizing a multi-criteria decision model.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 12 complexity and 60 risk attributes are initially identified from the literature and using expert’s judgements. For the development of a structured hierarchy of key complexity and risk drivers, a real-time Delphi process is adopted for recording and evaluating the responses from experts. Afterwards, a pair-wise comparison using analytical network processing is performed to measure complexity-risk interdependencies against cost alternatives.

Findings

The findings of the integrated priority decision index (IPDI) suggest that uncertainties related to contingency and escalation costs are the main sources of cost overrun in project drift, along with the key elements such as “the use of innovative technology,” “multiple contracts,” “low advance payment,” “change in design,” “unclear specifications” and “the lack of experience” appear to be more significant to chaos in complexity-risk interdependency network.

Research limitations/implications

This study did not address the uncertainty and vulnerability exit in the judgment process, therefore, this framework can be extended using fuzzy logic to better evaluate the significance of cost-chaos drivers.

Practical implications

These results may assist the management of cost overrun to avoid chaos in a project. The proposed model can be applied within project risk management practices to make better-informed technical decisions in the early phases of the project life cycle where uncertainty is high.

Originality/value

This research addresses the importance of cost overruns as a source of project chaos in dynamic systems where projects reach the edge of chaos and progress stops. A new IPDI index contributes toward evaluating the severity of complexity and risk and their interdependencies which create cost-chaos in infrastructure transport projects.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 27 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 January 2022

Farman Afzal, Ayesha Shehzad, Hafiz Muhammad Rehman, Fahim Afzal and Mohammad Mushfiqul Haque Mushfiqul Haque Mukit

Cost estimation is a major concern while planning projects on public–private partnership (PPP) terms in developing countries. To bridge the gap of the right approximation of cost…

Abstract

Purpose

Cost estimation is a major concern while planning projects on public–private partnership (PPP) terms in developing countries. To bridge the gap of the right approximation of cost of capital, this study aims to sermon a significant role of investor’s risk perception as unsystematic risk in PPP-based energy projects.

Design/methodology/approach

To investigate the effective mechanism of determining cost of capital and valuing the capital budgeting, a pure-play method has been acquired to measure systematic risk. In addition, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have been applied to calculate weighted average cost of capital.

Findings

Initially, a joint cost of capital of energy-related projects has been calculated using DCC-GARCH and pure-play method. Investors risk perception has been discussed through market point of view using country risk premium modeling. Latter yearly betas have been calculated using DCC signifying the final outcomes that applying a dynamic model can provide a better cost estimation in emerging economies.

Practical implications

The findings are implicating that due to the involvement of international investors, domestic risk is linked with country risk. In such situations, market-related information is a key factor to find out the market performance, helping in the estimation of cost of capital through capital asset pricing model (CAPM). High dynamic nature of emerging economies causes an impediment in the estimation of cost of capital. Consequently, to calculate risk in dynamic markets, this study has acquired DCC model that can predict the value of beta factor.

Originality/value

Study contributes to the body of knowledge by addressing an important issue of investor’s risk perception and effective implication of CAPM using pure-play and DCC-GARCH when data is not promptly available in dynamic situations.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 May 2022

Fahim Afzal, Tonmoy Toufic Choudhury and Muhammad Kamran

Because of the growing financial market integration, China’s stock market’s volatility spillover effect has gradually increased. Traditional strategies do not capture stock…

Abstract

Purpose

Because of the growing financial market integration, China’s stock market’s volatility spillover effect has gradually increased. Traditional strategies do not capture stock volatility in dependence and dynamic conditions. Therefore, this study aims to find an effective stochastic model to predict the volatility spillover effect in the dynamic stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

To assess the time-varying dynamics and volatility spillover, this study has used an integrated approach of dynamic conditional correlation model, copula and extreme-value theory. A daily log-returns of three leading indices of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from the period of 2009 to 2019 is used in the modeling of value-at-risk (VaR) for volatility estimation. The Student’s t copula has been selected based on maximum likelihood estimation and Akaike’s information criteria values of all the copulas using the goodness-of-fit test.

Findings

The model results show stronger dependency between all major portfolios of PSX and SSE, with the parametric value of 0.98. Subsequently, the results of dependence structure positively estimate the spillover effect of SSE over PSX. Furthermore, the back-testing results show that the VaR model performs well at 99% and 95% levels of confidence and gives more accurate estimates upon the maximum level of confidence.

Practical implications

This study is helpful for the investment managers to manage the risk associated to portfolios under dependence conditions. Moreover, this study is also helpful for the researchers in the field of financial risk management who are trying to improve the returns by addressing the issues of volatility estimations.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical model to manage the volatility spillover effect in dependence conditions between as well as across the financial markets.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 July 2021

Shagufta Parveen, Zoya Wajid Satti, Qazi Abdul Subhan, Nishat Riaz, Samreen Fahim Baber and Taqadus Bashir

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on investors' sentiments, behavioral biases and investment decisions in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

2724

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on investors' sentiments, behavioral biases and investment decisions in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors have assessed investors' behaviors and sentiments and the stock market overreaction during COVID-19 using a questionnaire and collected data from 401 investors trading in the PSX.

Findings

Results of structural equation modeling revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic affected investors' behaviors, investment decisions and trade volume. It created feelings of fear and uncertainty among market participants. Evidence suggests that behavioral heuristics and biases, including representative heuristic, anchoring heuristic, overconfidence bias and disposition effect, negatively influenced investors' decisions at the PSX.

Research limitations/implications

This study will contribute to behavioral finance literature in the context of developing countries as it has revealed the impact of COVID-19 on the emerging stock market, and its results are generalizable to other emerging stock markets.

Practical implications

The findings of this study will help academicians, researchers and policymakers of developing countries. Academicians can formulate new behavioral models that can depict the solutions of dealing with an uncertain situation like COVID-19. Policymakers like the Securities Exchange Commission and the PSX can formulate crisis management strategies based on behavioral finance concepts to cope with situations like COVID-19 in the future and help lessen investors' losses in the stock markets. The role of the Securities Exchange Commission is crucial as it regulates the financial markets. It can arrange workshops to educate investors to manage their decisions during crisis time and focus on the best use of irrational and rational decision-making at the same time using Lo (2004) adaptive market hypothesis.

Originality/value

The novelty of the paper is that the authors have introduced overconfidence and disposition effect as mediators that create a connection between representative and anchoring heuristics and investment decisions using primary data collected from investors (institutional and retail) to demonstrate the presence of psychological biases during COVID-19, and it has been done for the first time according to authors' knowledge. It is a contribution and addition to the behavioral finance literature in the context of developing countries' stock markets and their efficiency.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 39 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 February 2024

Jenet Sagota Marandi, Payel Akter, Masud Rana and Kamal Krishna Biswas

This study aims to assess the nutritional status and physical fitness status of school children among major ethnic and Dalit populations, in Rajshahi, Bangladesh.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess the nutritional status and physical fitness status of school children among major ethnic and Dalit populations, in Rajshahi, Bangladesh.

Design/methodology/approach

Data were collected through structured questionnaires administered to mothers or caregivers of the children, followed by physical fitness assessments. Anthropometric indicators were used to evaluate nutritional status, including body mass index-for-age, height-for-age, and weight-for-height, based on Centre for Disease Control guidelines. Physical fitness was assessed through tests for flexibility, abdominal, muscular, speed, and lower limb strength. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS.

Findings

Approximately 45% of boys and 55% of girls had normal nutritional status. However, the study also identified varying percentages of children with stunted, underweight, wasted, and mixed nutritional issues, highlighting the prevalence of malnutrition among this population. Boys consistently outperformed girls in terms of physical fitness across all age groups, with 84% to 90% of boys meeting established fitness criteria. Girls face a 1.8-fold and 2.2-fold increased risk of wasted and underweight conditions compared to boys. Lower-income group children exhibit a 2.6-fold and 1.6-fold increased risk of wasted conditions and underweight conditions. Children consuming meals twice a day have a 2.1-fold and 2.5-fold elevated risk of wasted and underweight conditions compared to others.

Originality/value

This study highlights the need for interventions and strategies to improve the nutritional and health status of ethnic children in Rajshahi, Bangladesh, considering their diverse dietary habits and lifestyles. By addressing these issues, the authors can empower these communities to actively contribute to the social and economic development of the region.

Details

Nutrition & Food Science , vol. 54 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0034-6659

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 May 2007

Emily A. Wilson and Barbara Demmig‐Adams

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of multiple functions and their underlying mechanisms for two common spices, garlic and onion, containing…

12951

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of multiple functions and their underlying mechanisms for two common spices, garlic and onion, containing organosulphur compounds.

Design/methodology/approach

Literature review of chemistry, physiology, molecular biology, clinical studies.

Findings

Both garlic and onions exert their effects on human health via multiple different functions, including antioxidant, anti‐inflammatory, and antibacterial properties. The organosulphur compounds in these spices scavenge oxidizing agents, inhibit the oxidation of fatty acids, thereby preventing the formation of pro‐inflammatory messengers, and inhibit bacterial growth, via interaction with sulphur‐containing enzymes.

Research limitations/implications

Currently available information on the optimal amount for consumption for each spice is insufficient.

Originality/value

This review is unique in its comprehensive nature, considering multiple different effects of the spices examined as well as multiple studies from molecular to clinical approaches.

Details

Nutrition & Food Science, vol. 37 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0034-6659

Keywords

Content available

Abstract

Details

Library Hi Tech, vol. 41 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-8831

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