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1 – 10 of over 1000Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important…
Abstract
Purpose
The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important issue to investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine neural networks (NNs) for office property price index forecasting from 10 major Chinese cities for July 2005–April 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors aim at building simple and accurate NNs to contribute to pure technical forecasts of the Chinese office property market. To facilitate the analysis, the authors explore different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data-spitting ratios.
Findings
The authors reach a simple NN with three delays and three hidden neurons, which leads to stable performance of about 1.45% average relative root mean square error across the 10 cities for the training, validation and testing phases.
Originality/value
The results could be used on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to form perspectives of office property price trends and conduct policy analysis.
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Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Mohammed Hamaidi, Mohammad M. Hamed, Abdelhamid Issa Hassane and Jean Gaston Tamba
For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic…
Abstract
Purpose
For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic growth and the ambitious projects underway. Therefore, one of the state's priorities is the mastery of electricity demand. In order to get there, it would be helpful to have reliable forecasting tools. This study proposes a novel version of the discrete grey multivariate convolution model (ODGMC(1,N)).
Design/methodology/approach
Specifically, a linear corrective term is added to its structure, parameterisation is done in a way that is consistent to the modelling procedure and the cumulated forecasting function of ODGMC(1,N) is obtained through an iterative technique.
Findings
Results show that ODGMC(1,N) is more stable and can extract the relationships between the system's input variables. To demonstrate and validate the superiority of ODGMC(1,N), a practical example drawn from the projection of electricity demand in Cameroon till 2030 is used. The findings reveal that the proposed model has a higher prediction precision, with 1.74% mean absolute percentage error and 132.16 root mean square error.
Originality/value
These interesting results are due to (1) the stability of ODGMC(1,N) resulting from a good adequacy between parameters estimation and their implementation, (2) the addition of a term that takes into account the linear impact of time t on the model's performance and (3) the removal of irrelevant information from input data by wavelet transform filtration. Thus, the suggested ODGMC is a robust predictive and monitoring tool for tracking the evolution of electricity needs.
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Shan Lei and Ani Manakyan Mathers
This study examines the relationship between investors' familiarity bias, including the home bias and endowment bias, and their financial situations, expectations and personal…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the relationship between investors' familiarity bias, including the home bias and endowment bias, and their financial situations, expectations and personal characteristics.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances, the authors utilize an ordinary least squares regression to identify the presence of endowment bias and home bias in individual investors' direct stock holdings and use a Heckman selection model to examine determinants of the extent of endowment bias and home bias.
Findings
This study finds that investors with higher income and more education, men, non-white investors and people with greater risk tolerance are actually at a greater risk of endowment bias. This study also identifies a profile of investors that are more likely to have a home bias: with less financial sophistication, lower net worth, older, female, more risk-averse, with a positive expectation about the domestic economy and a relatively shorter investment horizon.
Originality/value
This paper is among the first to use US investors' directly reported stock holdings to examine the individual characteristics that are correlated with greater familiarity bias, providing financial professionals with information about how to allocate their limited time in providing education to a variety of clients.
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Ziwen Gao, Steven F. Lehrer, Tian Xie and Xinyu Zhang
Motivated by empirical features that characterize cryptocurrency volatility data, the authors develop a forecasting strategy that can account for both model uncertainty and…
Abstract
Motivated by empirical features that characterize cryptocurrency volatility data, the authors develop a forecasting strategy that can account for both model uncertainty and heteroskedasticity of unknown form. The theoretical investigation establishes the asymptotic optimality of the proposed heteroskedastic model averaging heterogeneous autoregressive (H-MAHAR) estimator under mild conditions. The authors additionally examine the convergence rate of the estimated weights of the proposed H-MAHAR estimator. This analysis sheds new light on the asymptotic properties of the least squares model averaging estimator under alternative complicated data generating processes (DGPs). To examine the performance of the H-MAHAR estimator, the authors conduct an out-of-sample forecasting application involving 22 different cryptocurrency assets. The results emphasize the importance of accounting for both model uncertainty and heteroskedasticity in practice.
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Samson Edo and Osaro Oigiangbe
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate how external debt vulnerability has affected the economy of emerging countries over time, with particular reference to…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate how external debt vulnerability has affected the economy of emerging countries over time, with particular reference to Sub-Saharan African countries. It also deals with the policy issues associated with the economic effects.
Design/methodology/approach
The techniques of dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares are used in this investigation, covering the period 1990–2022. A panel of 43 Sub-Saharan African countries is used in the study.
Findings
The estimation results reveal that external debt vulnerability impacted negatively on economic growth, thus validating the concerns raised about the debt problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, the results revealed that domestic credit and openness of economy played a passive role and were therefore unable to cushion the adverse effect of debt vulnerability. Capital stock, however, stands out as the only variable that played a significant positive role in facilitating economic growth. The results are considered to be highly reliable for short-term forecast of economic growth and formulation of relevant policies.
Originality/value
Over the years, economic analysts and stakeholders have expressed concern about the inadequate ratio of foreign reserves to external debt in developing countries. The effect of this external debt vulnerability on the economy of these countries has yet to be given sufficient attention by researchers. In view of this perceived void, this current study is carried out to determine the economic and policy consequences of the problem.
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Alex Rudniy, Olena Rudna and Arim Park
This paper seeks to demonstrate the value of using social media to capture fashion trends, including the popularity of specific features of clothing, in order to improve the speed…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to demonstrate the value of using social media to capture fashion trends, including the popularity of specific features of clothing, in order to improve the speed and accuracy of supply chain response in the era of fast fashion.
Design/methodology/approach
This study examines the role that text mining can play to improve trend recognition in the fashion industry. Researchers used n-gram analysis to design a social media trend detection tool referred to here as the Twitter Trend Tool (3Ts). This tool was applied to a Twitter dataset to identify trends whose validity was then checked against Google Trends.
Findings
The results suggest that Twitter data are trend representative and can be used to identify the apparel features that are most in demand in near real time.
Originality/value
The 3Ts introduced in this research contributes to the field of fashion analytics by offering a novel method for employing big data from social media to identify consumer preferences in fashion elements and analyzes consumer preferences to improve demand planning.
Practical implications
The 3Ts improves forecasting models and helps inform marketing campaigns in the apparel retail industry, especially in fast fashion.
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Christine Prince, Nessrine Omrani and Francesco Schiavone
Research on online user privacy shows that empirical evidence on how privacy literacy relates to users' information privacy empowerment is missing. To fill this gap, this paper…
Abstract
Purpose
Research on online user privacy shows that empirical evidence on how privacy literacy relates to users' information privacy empowerment is missing. To fill this gap, this paper investigated the respective influence of two primary dimensions of online privacy literacy – namely declarative and procedural knowledge – on online users' information privacy empowerment.
Design/methodology/approach
An empirical analysis is conducted using a dataset collected in Europe. This survey was conducted in 2019 among 27,524 representative respondents of the European population.
Findings
The main results show that users' procedural knowledge is positively linked to users' privacy empowerment. The relationship between users' declarative knowledge and users' privacy empowerment is partially supported. While greater awareness about firms and organizations practices in terms of data collections and further uses conditions was found to be significantly associated with increased users' privacy empowerment, unpredictably, results revealed that the awareness about the GDPR and user’s privacy empowerment are negatively associated. The empirical findings reveal also that greater online privacy literacy is associated with heightened users' information privacy empowerment.
Originality/value
While few advanced studies made systematic efforts to measure changes occurred on websites since the GDPR enforcement, it remains unclear, however, how individuals perceive, understand and apply the GDPR rights/guarantees and their likelihood to strengthen users' information privacy control. Therefore, this paper contributes empirically to understanding how online users' privacy literacy shaped by both users' declarative and procedural knowledge is likely to affect users' information privacy empowerment. The study empirically investigates the effectiveness of the GDPR in raising users' information privacy empowerment from user-based perspective. Results stress the importance of greater transparency of data tracking and processing decisions made by online businesses and services to strengthen users' control over information privacy. Study findings also put emphasis on the crucial need for more educational efforts to raise users' awareness about the GDPR rights/guarantees related to data protection. Empirical findings also show that users who are more likely to adopt self-protective approaches to reinforce personal data privacy are more likely to perceive greater control over personal data. A broad implication of this finding for practitioners and E-businesses stresses the need for empowering users with adequate privacy protection tools to ensure more confidential transactions.
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Shekhar Saroj, Rajesh Kumar Shastri, Priyanka Singh, Mano Ashish Tripathi, Sanjukta Dutta and Akriti Chaubey
Human capital is a portfolio of rich skills that the labour possesses. Human capital has attracted significant attention from scholars. Nevertheless, empirical findings on the…
Abstract
Purpose
Human capital is a portfolio of rich skills that the labour possesses. Human capital has attracted significant attention from scholars. Nevertheless, empirical findings on the utility of human capital have often been divided. To address the research gap in the literature, the authors attempt to understand how human capital plays a significant role in financial development and economic growth nexus.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors rely on secondary data published by the World Bank. The authors use econometric tools such as the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and related statistical tests to study the relationship between human capital, India's financial growth and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
Findings
Study findings suggest that human capital and financial development contribute significantly to economic growth. Further, the authors found that human capital has a positive and significant moderating effect on the path of joining financial development and economic growth.
Practical implications
The study contributes to the human capital debate. Despite the rich body of literature, the study based on World Bank data confirms the previous findings that investment in human capital is always useful for the financial and economic growth of the nation.
Originality/value
This paper reveals some unique findings regarding effect of financial development and economic growth nexus which opens the window of new dimension to think about their nexus. It also provides a different pathway to foster the economic growth by using human capital and financial development as together, especially in India.
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Ivan Soukal, Jan Mačí, Gabriela Trnková, Libuse Svobodova, Martina Hedvičáková, Eva Hamplova, Petra Maresova and Frank Lefley
The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the so-called core authors and their publications according to pre-defined criteria and thereby direct the users to the fastest…
Abstract
Purpose
The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the so-called core authors and their publications according to pre-defined criteria and thereby direct the users to the fastest and easiest way to get a picture of the otherwise pervasive field of bankruptcy prediction models. The authors aim to present state-of-the-art bankruptcy prediction models assembled by the field's core authors and critically examine the approaches and methods adopted.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conducted a literature search in November 2022 through scientific databases Scopus, ScienceDirect and the Web of Science, focussing on a publication period from 2010 to 2022. The database search query was formulated as “Bankruptcy Prediction” and “Model or Tool”. However, the authors intentionally did not specify any model or tool to make the search non-discriminatory. The authors reviewed over 7,300 articles.
Findings
This paper has addressed the research questions: (1) What are the most important publications of the core authors in terms of the target country, size of the sample, sector of the economy and specialization in SME? (2) What are the most used methods for deriving or adjusting models appearing in the articles of the core authors? (3) To what extent do the core authors include accounting-based variables, non-financial or macroeconomic indicators, in their prediction models? Despite the advantages of new-age methods, based on the information in the articles analyzed, it can be deduced that conventional methods will continue to be beneficial, mainly due to the higher degree of ease of use and the transferability of the derived model.
Research limitations/implications
The authors identify several gaps in the literature which this research does not address but could be the focus of future research.
Practical implications
The authors provide practitioners and academics with an extract from a wide range of studies, available in scientific databases, on bankruptcy prediction models or tools, resulting in a large number of records being reviewed. This research will interest shareholders, corporations, and financial institutions interested in models of financial distress prediction or bankruptcy prediction to help identify troubled firms in the early stages of distress.
Social implications
Bankruptcy is a major concern for society in general, especially in today's economic environment. Therefore, being able to predict possible business failure at an early stage will give an organization time to address the issue and maybe avoid bankruptcy.
Originality/value
To the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to identify the core authors in the bankruptcy prediction model and methods field. The primary value of the study is the current overview and analysis of the theoretical and practical development of knowledge in this field in the form of the construction of new models using classical or new-age methods. Also, the paper adds value by critically examining existing models and their modifications, including a discussion of the benefits of non-accounting variables usage.
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