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1 – 10 of over 42000Syed Ali Raza and Mohd Zaini Abd Karim
This study aims to investigate the influence of systemic banking crises, currency crises and global financial crisis on the relationship between export and economic growth in…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the influence of systemic banking crises, currency crises and global financial crisis on the relationship between export and economic growth in China by using the annual time series data from the period of 1972 to 2014.
Design/methodology/approach
The Johansen and Jeuuselius’ cointegration, auto regressive distributed lag bound testing cointegration, Gregory and Hansen’s cointegration and pooled ordinary least square techniques with error correction model have been used.
Findings
Results indicate the positive and significant effect of export of goods and services on economic growth in both long and short run, whereas the negative influence of systemic banking crises and currency crises over economic growth is observed. It is also concluded that the impact of export of goods and service on economic growth becomes insignificant in the presence of systemic banking crises and currency crises. The currency crises effect the influence of export on economic growth to a higher extent compared to systemic banking crises. Surprisingly, the export in the period of global financial crises has a positive and significant influence over economic growth in China, which conclude that the global financial crises did not drastically affect the export-growth nexus.
Originality/value
This paper makes a unique contribution to the literature with reference to China, being a pioneering attempt to investigate the effects of systemic banking crises and currency crises on the relationship of export and economic growth by using long-time series data and applying more rigorous econometric techniques.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine two different approaches in the prediction of the economic recession periods in the US economy.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine two different approaches in the prediction of the economic recession periods in the US economy.
Design/methodology/approach
A logit regression was applied and the prediction performance in two out‐of‐sample periods, 2007‐2009 and 2010 was examined. On the other hand, feed‐forwards neural networks with Levenberg‐Marquardt error backpropagation algorithm were applied and then neural networks self‐organizing map (SOM) on the training outputs was estimated.
Findings
The paper presents the cluster results from SOM training in order to find the patterns of economic recessions and expansions. It is concluded that logit model forecasts the current financial crisis period at 75 percent accuracy, but logit model is useful as it provides a warning signal three quarters before the current financial crisis started officially. Also, it is estimated that the financial crisis, even if it reached its peak in 2009, the economic recession will be continued in 2010 too. Furthermore, the patterns generated by SOM neural networks show various possible versions with one common characteristic, that financial crisis is not over in 2009 and the economic recession will be continued in the USA even up to 2011‐2012, if government does not apply direct drastic measures.
Originality/value
Both logistic regression (logit) and SOMs procedures are useful. The first one is useful to examine the significance and the magnitude of each variable, while the second one is useful for clustering and identifying patterns in economic recessions and expansions.
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Nargiza Alymkulova and Junus Ganiev
The global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in early 2009. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the…
Abstract
Purpose
The global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in early 2009. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the global financial economic crisis on the transition economy of the Kyrgyz Republic. As there is a low level of the Kyrgyz Republic’s integration into the global financial and economic processes, it is obvious that channels of transmissions are different.
Design/methodology/approach
The empirical model is the vector autoregression approach. The quarterly data from 2005 to 2013 of the remittances from abroad, trade volumes, exchange rates, credits, deposits and liquidity of the banking system, gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) were used in the empirical analysis.
Findings
The authors found a significant positive relation between transmission channels such as remittances flow, banking sector, international trade and GDP within the first six months. Thus, a decline in the aforementioned variables has a significant affirmative effect on the country’s GDP. Notwithstanding, the exchange-rate channel adversely influences GDP. Thereby, the depreciation of the national currency leads to an increase in GDP.
Originality/value
The study findings allow the Kyrgyz policymakers to foresee the global crisis transmission through the primary channels of transmission mechanism. Nevertheless, a decrease of the deposit level by 1 per cent leads to 2.91 per cent decline in FDI inflows. On the contrary, an increase of the exchange rate by 1 per cent leads to 1.54 per cent decrease in imports.
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The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a discourse analytical understanding of the political economy. The term “crisis” is an important label in recent discussion in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a discourse analytical understanding of the political economy. The term “crisis” is an important label in recent discussion in political economy. Yet the genuine discursive dimension of “the crisis” and the multiple linguistic layers of the crisis discourse remains an open issue.
Design/methodology/approach
Realist perspectives usually believe in an external reality of crises independent of the language construction; in contrast, constructivist perspectives argue that a crisis is always the result of a socio-linguistic construction process. This contribution follows a critical-constructivist perspective, thereby taking into account powerful discursive actors which are able to “declare” a state in the world as a “crisis”.
Findings
From a discourse analytical point of view, this paper examines the rules and logics of crisis management policy, arguing that a new politico-academic elite has appeared which is beyond the classical distinction between “Keynesians” and “neo-liberals”. By taking a position in the discourse of the recent debate on financial regulation, these new elite might be able to manage the crisis for a particular time, as they are constructed as “moderating actors” through academic and political discourses.
Research limitations/implications
From a practical point of view, this analysis cannot offer economic solutions; from an analytical viewpoint, it will not give insights into discursive contexts.
Practical implications
This analysis helps to understand current debates on economic policy and to improve the communicative efficiency of the participants.
Originality/value
This paper combines a discourse analysis with a governmentality perspective and applies this analytical tool onto a political and economic topic currently prevailing in the global political economy.
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There exist long-term fluctuations in the process of capital accumulation. The economic long wave is an essential part of research into non-mainstream western economics. After the…
Abstract
Purpose
There exist long-term fluctuations in the process of capital accumulation. The economic long wave is an essential part of research into non-mainstream western economics. After the Second World War, the capitalist world experienced the fourth long wave of expansion and then entered into a downward phase of the long wave in the 1970s. Regarding to whether a new long wave of expansion took place in the 1980s, left-wing scholars hold different viewpoints. The purpose of this paper is to focus on this issue.
Design/methodology/approach
First, based on the review of the long wave history, this paper discusses three kinds of long wave theories with significant influence and puts forward the theoretical framework of analyzing the long wave of capitalist economy. Next, under the guidance of this theoretical framework and in combination with the actual development and evolution of the capitalist economy, the issue of whether the fifth long wave of the capitalist economy began to emerge in the 1980s is discussed deeply.
Findings
This paper argues that, from the early 1980s to 2007, the US-dominated developed countries experienced a new long wave of expansion driven by the information technology revolution, the adjustment of the neoliberalism system and the economic globalization. However, the financial-economic crisis of 2008–2009 led to a new phase of long wave downswing.
Originality/value
This paper does not agree with the single-factor analysis of the intrinsic formation mechanism of economic long wave and sticks to the multi-factor analysis centering on the fluctuation of accumulation rate. It is pointed out that the evolution of the long wave of capitalist economy depends on the combined influence of technology, institutions and market. The study of the long wave of the economy will help us to correctly understand the historical stage and characteristics of the current world capitalist economy in the long-term fluctuations, so that we can make an appropriate and positive response.
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Yann Carin, Cyprien Desquennes, Lukas Jaworski and Wladimir Andreff
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the economic effects of Covid-19 on French men's professional basketball club championships. Three research questions are raised: What are…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the economic effects of Covid-19 on French men's professional basketball club championships. Three research questions are raised: What are the characteristics of the economic model of French men's professional basketball? Has this economic model changed over the 2008/2009 to 2018/2019 period? What are the economic effects of the Covid-19 crisis on the finance of French men's professional basketball clubs?
Design/methodology/approach
Relying on a privileged access to the financial data of professional clubs in the two top-tier divisions (456 observations: 222 in Pro A/Jeep Elite and 234 in Pro B), this research focuses on economic models of French men's professional basketball clubs. The breakdown of revenues, expenses and financial performance is examined over the 2008/2009 to 2018/2019 period. The short-term economic effects of Covid-19 are measured over the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 seasons.
Findings
The Covid-19 crisis, at least in the short term (2019/2020 season), has affected revenues and expenses. With the closedown of the championship, two out of three main revenue sources have significantly decreased, while two main expense sources have decreased as well. The net incomes of Jeep Elite and Pro B clubs are in the black contrasting with the 2018/2019 season (pre-Covid) owing to clubs having benefited from governmental and federal measures and a stronger support from local authorities and their shareholders.
Practical implications
Given the financial difficulties that clubs would have faced without governmental support, the federation and leagues would be well advised to develop a real crisis management competence within professional clubs. Owners of French professional men’s basketball clubs must increasingly adopt product diversification strategies to be better prepared for future crises.
Originality/value
Recent research on the economic effects of Covid-19 has focused on professional and amateur football. To the best of our knowledge, one does not avail detailed research on the potential effects of a health crisis fought with containment measures on professional basketball clubs. French professional basketball deserves to be studied because it has the third largest professional league revenue (behind football and rugby) and it is the second most practiced sport in France. Its sources of finance, which are different from those witnessed in football and rugby, also make it an appropriate subject for study.
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Examines the economy of Southeast Asia during the period 1997 to 1999 against a background of socio‐economic theory and a transition from disequilibrium to general stable and…
Abstract
Examines the economy of Southeast Asia during the period 1997 to 1999 against a background of socio‐economic theory and a transition from disequilibrium to general stable and equilibrium conditions. Discusses solutions towards establishing self‐regulating mechanisms needed for a free, just and stable economy and society: reform of officially organized securities commodities and foreign exchange makets; reform of the public budget and budgetary policies; and reform of the foreign exchange system and internaitonal commercial and financial relations.
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The purpose of this article is to discuss the long‐term impact of the current financial and economic crisis on competition in the European Union (EU) banking sector.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this article is to discuss the long‐term impact of the current financial and economic crisis on competition in the European Union (EU) banking sector.
Design/methodology/approach
The article first discusses the long term role of competition in the banking sector, commenting on policy developments prior to the crisis. Then the impact of the crisis is discussed focusing on two main areas of policy state: aids and bank regulation and supervision. The article culminates with the conclusions.
Findings
The main findings about state aids are that the efforts of the Commission to ensure that aided companies would not use the government support to distort competition seem to be working. However, given that the full impact on competition of these aids may take years to be felt, the Commission should be prepared to take action where necessary to ensure that competition will be protected. The provision of state aids could not have been avoided due to the grave systemic risks associated with bank failures. In respect of regulation and supervision, the article concluded that there is a lot of work to be done in this area to ensure that mistakes that led to the crisis will not be repeated but also that there is need for the Commission to ensure that the reforms to the regulatory and supervisory architecture do not occur at the expense of competition.
Originality/value
The article contains proposals about policy adjustments, thus contributing to the ongoing debate about the role of competition policy in the efforts to address the impact of the crisis.
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Ulla Pape, Rafael Chaves-Ávila, Joachim Benedikt Pahl, Francesca Petrella, Bartosz Pieliński and Teresa Savall-Morera
The context conditions for third sector organizations (TSOs) in Europe have significantly changed as a result of the global economic crisis, including decreasing levels of public…
Abstract
Purpose
The context conditions for third sector organizations (TSOs) in Europe have significantly changed as a result of the global economic crisis, including decreasing levels of public funding and changing modes of relations with the state. The effect of economic recession, however, varies across Europe. The purpose of this paper is to understand why this is the case. It analyses the impact of economic recession and related policy changes on third sector development in Europe. The economic effects on TSOs are thereby placed into a broader context of changing third sector policies and welfare state restructuring.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper focusses on two research questions: how has the changing policy environment affected the development of the third sector? And what kind of strategies have TSOs adopted to respond to these changes? The paper first investigates general trends in Europe, based on a conceptual model that focusses on economic recession and austerity policies with regard to the third sector. In a second step of analysis, the paper provides five country case studies that exemplify policy changes and responses from the third sector in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain.
Findings
The paper argues that three different development paths can be identified across Europe. In some countries (France and Spain), TSOs face a strong effect of economic recession. In other countries (Germany and Poland) the development of the third sector remains largely stable, albeit at different levels, whereas in the Netherlands, TSOs rather experience changes in the policy environment than a direct impact of economic decline. The paper also shows that response strategies of the third sector in Europe depend on the context conditions. The paper is based on the European project “Third Sector Impact.” It combines an analysis of statistical information with qualitative data from interviews with third sector representatives.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to our understanding of the interrelation between economic recession, long-term policy changes and third sector development in Europe.
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Hwy‐Chang Moon, Joseph L.C. Cheng, Min‐Young Kim and Jin‐Uk Kim
While many studies have investigated the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on a host country's economic development, little research has been done on the role of FDI as…
Abstract
Purpose
While many studies have investigated the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on a host country's economic development, little research has been done on the role of FDI as related to economic decline and recovery. This paper aims to fill this gap by investigating the economic effects of inward and outward FDI during turbulent times.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper develops a theoretical argument postulating that FDI will have a stabilizing effect on a nation's economic growth during crisis and also at times of recovery. Hypotheses were advanced and tested with data collected from affected economies during the Asian financial crisis using a fixed‐effect panel regression analysis.
Findings
Results confirm that both inward and outward FDI stabilizes a country's economic growth during times of a financial crisis. Countries that had higher levels of FDI prior to the crisis experienced a milder recession and a more gradual recovery. This stabilizing effect, however, is found to be more robust for FDI‐stock than for FDI‐flow.
Social implications
This paper reveals that FDI has a stabilizing rather than an accelerating effect on a country's economy growth during both periods of crisis and recovery. It contradicts the common belief that FDI would help speed up, not stabilize or dampen the uptake of economic activities during the recovery period. This finding will help policy makers educate the public and set realistic expectations about the economic impact of FDI.
Originality/value
This paper makes original contributions by uncovering the complex and unexpected role of FDI as related to a nation's economic decline and recovery during a financial crisis. The findings have important implications for both international business scholars and public‐policy decision makers.
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