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EU: Further rate cuts to depend on inflation progress
Sarah Herwald, Simone Voigt and André Uhde
Academic research has intensively analyzed the relationship between market concentration or market power and banking stability but provides ambiguous results, which are summarized…
Abstract
Purpose
Academic research has intensively analyzed the relationship between market concentration or market power and banking stability but provides ambiguous results, which are summarized under the concentration-stability/fragility view. We provide empirical evidence that the mixed results are due to the difficulty of identifying reliable variables to measure concentration and market power.
Design/methodology/approach
Using data from 3,943 banks operating in the European Union (EU)-15 between 2013 and 2020, we employ linear regression models on panel data. Banking market concentration is measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), and market power is estimated by the product-specific Lerner Indices for the loan and deposit market, respectively.
Findings
Our analysis reveals a significantly stability-decreasing impact of market concentration (HHI) and a significantly stability-increasing effect of market power (Lerner Indices). In addition, we provide evidence for a weak (or even absent) empirical relationship between the (non)structural measures, challenging the validity of the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) paradigm. Our baseline findings remain robust, especially when controlling for a likely reverse causality.
Originality/value
Our results suggest that the HHI may reflect other factors beyond market power that influence banking stability. Thus, banking supervisors and competition authorities should investigate market concentration and market power simultaneously while considering their joint impact on banking stability.
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Armando Urdaneta Montiel, Emmanuel Vitorio Borgucci Garcia and Segundo Camino-Mogro
This paper aims to determine causal relationships between the level of productive credit, real deposits and money demand – all of them in real terms – and Gross National Product…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to determine causal relationships between the level of productive credit, real deposits and money demand – all of them in real terms – and Gross National Product between 2006 and 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The vector autoregressive technique (VAR) was used, where data from real macroeconomic aggregates published by the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) are correlated, such as productive credit, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, deposits and money demand.
Findings
The results indicate that there is no causal relationship, in the Granger sense, between GDP and financial activity, but there is between the growth rate of real money demand per capita and the growth rate of total real deposits per capita.
Originality/value
The study shows that bank credit mainly finances the operations of current assets and/or liabilities. In addition, economic agents use the banking system mainly to carry out transactional and precautionary activities.
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Petr Rozmahel and Marek Litzman
This chapter elaborates on the main factors of the adverse macroeconomic development in Czechia and Europe. Currently, i.e. from 2022, Czechia mainly suffers from double-digit…
Abstract
This chapter elaborates on the main factors of the adverse macroeconomic development in Czechia and Europe. Currently, i.e. from 2022, Czechia mainly suffers from double-digit galloping inflation and GDP stagnation. The aim of this chapter is to identify and describe the influence of the main factors from the present and the more distant past on current inflation and approaching stagflation in Czechia. This chapter analyzes an unfavourable mix of demand and supply factors that leave the new banking board of the CNB facing a dilemma, that is, whether to pursue a disinflationary policy of increasing interest rates and thus push the Czech economy closer into recession or to rely on demand-driven economic growth, which will keep unemployment at a low level, but at the same time contribute to inflationary pressures. The new governor of the CNB completely changed the strategy of his predecessor and, despite strong criticism, did not raise interest rates even once. Based on the analysis of inflationary factors, this chapter tries to explain the motives for the Central Bank's new strategy in the fight against inflation, which is the systematic appreciation of the Czech koruna.
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Faten Ben Bouheni, Mouwafac Sidaoui, Dima Leshchinskii, Bryan Zaremba and Mousa Albashrawi
The purpose of this study is to investigate how the implementation of digital banking services (mobile applications) by globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) affects…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate how the implementation of digital banking services (mobile applications) by globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) affects banks’ performance in the USA and Europe from 2005 to 2022.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs advanced econometric methods to analyze the link between deposits and banking performance, utilizing linear regressions and multivariate Bayesian regressions.
Findings
Our results indicate that customer deposits positively impact a bank’s performance after the introduction of the mobile application feature of check deposits, whereas social risk negatively impacts banking financial performance. These findings support the hypothesis that technology implementation improves the profitability and growth of traditional banks.
Research limitations/implications
While findings are robust econometrically in linear and Bayesian regressions, variables reflecting the digitalization of banks remain limited. For instance, the number of mobile users or the volume of digital transactions per bank since the implementation of the mobile app is not available.
Practical implications
In a rapidly growing technology and constantly changing customers behaviors, this research has practical implications from bankers’ perspective to continue the technological innovation efforts and from regulators’ perspective to strengthen requirements for the digital banking services.
Social implications
We provide empirical evidence that including a banking app for smartphones’ users for remote banking services benefit the financial performance of banks. However, the social risk remains significant for banks in terms of customers' satisfaction, data privacy and cybersecurity.
Originality/value
This paper employs an innovative approach to create a mobile app “discriminatory” factor and examine the relationship between deposits and banks’ performance before and after the introduction of a mobile app for too-big-to-fail banks in Europe and the USA. Additionally, we consider the social risk component of the ESG score, as a bank’s decision to implement mobile applications and technology for its customers potentially affects social risks associated with customer satisfaction and technology usability.
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This study investigates the reasons behind the very high net interest margins in the Greek banking industry compared to the euro-area, focussing on the association between bank…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the reasons behind the very high net interest margins in the Greek banking industry compared to the euro-area, focussing on the association between bank competition and recapitalisations.
Design/methodology/approach
The author conducts a dynamic panel analysis covering the period from the early 2000s to 2021, that controls for possible endogeneity and treats for heterogeneity. The author also employs local projections impulse response functions that control for structural changes in Greek banking.
Findings
The author finds that low bank competition has contributed to high net interest margins in Greece. Interestingly, the impact of recapitalisations conditional to low bank competition has had a significant further impact on increasing net interest margins, which is a noteworthy case due to several Greek bank recapitalisations in the last ten years. The author’s findings are supported by local projections impulse response functions.
Originality/value
To mitigate distortions in bank competition, the author argues to accelerate steps toward the direction of the banking union and a common bank regulation framework in the euro-area.
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This chapter first reviews the current stages of retail CBDC development before examining some of the common characteristics of retail CBDC projects being proposed in various…
Abstract
This chapter first reviews the current stages of retail CBDC development before examining some of the common characteristics of retail CBDC projects being proposed in various jurisdictions. This chapter then examines the possible future of retail CBDC going forward.
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This chapter first reviews the central banks' two key remits, monetary stability and financial stability, and examines how they will be affected either directly or indirectly by…
Abstract
This chapter first reviews the central banks' two key remits, monetary stability and financial stability, and examines how they will be affected either directly or indirectly by the emerging challenges relating to walled gardens, shadow banking, singleness of the money, customers' data rights, artificial intelligence (AI) ethics, cybersecurity and financial exclusion. This chapter will then review three possible areas of responses that the central banks might take to address the emerging challenges: (1) regulations, (2) promotion of open digital infrastructures and (3) central banks' capabilities upgrade. This chapter will then review possible tools that the central banks might use to implement actions in those three key areas.
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European Parliament committees failed to submit EU legislation authorising the digital euro before the June parliamentary elections. Political reluctance is an obstacle in the…