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The authors present a dynamic macroeconomic model for assessment of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies under multiple hazards. The model can be used to analyze and compare various potential policies in terms of their economic consequences. The decomposition of these effects into multiple benefits helps policy makers and other stakeholders better understand the ex ante and ex-post advantages of DRR investments. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues.

A dynamic real business cycle model is at the core of this research. In the model multiple natural hazards modeled stochastically cause shocks to the economy. Economic outcomes, most importantly, output can be assessed before and after disasters and under various DRR policies. The decomposition of benefits aims to quantify the concept of triple dividends.

In case study applications in Tanzania and Zambia, the authors find that investments into physical infrastructure and risk transfer instruments generate a variety of benefits even in the absence of disaster. A land use restriction with planned relocation for example reduces output in the short run but in the long run increases it. Overall, policy effects of various DRR interventions evolve in a nonmonotonic manner and should be evaluated over a long period of time using dynamic simulation.

The novelty of this study lies in the economic quantification of multiple benefits described in the triple dividends literature. This helps comparing ex ante, ex-post and volatility-related economic effects of multiple disasters and related physical and financial DRR investment options. As observed in the case studies, the model can also identify overlooked temporal heterogeneity of co-benefits of DRR investments.

This paper surveys the treatment of expectations in estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic models.

A recent notable development in the empirical macroeconomics literature has been the rapid growth of papers that build structural models, which include a number of frictions and shocks, and which are confronted with the data using sophisticated full-information econometric approaches, often using Bayesian methods.

A widespread assumption in these estimated models, as in most of the macroeconomic literature in general, is that economic agents' expectations are formed according to the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH). Various alternative ways to model the formation of expectations have, however, emerged: some are simple refinements that maintain the REH, but change the information structure along different dimensions, while others imply more significant departures from rational expectations.

I review here the modeling of the expectation formation process and discuss related econometric issues in current structural macroeconomic models. The discussion includes benchmark models assuming rational expectations, extensions based on allowing for sunspots, news, sticky information, as well as models that abandon the REH to use learning, heuristics, or subjective expectations.

The purpose of this paper is to simulate the indirect and direct effects of remittances in developing countries.

The paper estimates a dynamic macroeconomic model and estimates the short‐run and long‐run dynamic multiplier effects of hypothetical temporary changes in remittances, as well as simulates the permanent effects of observed remittances.

The results indicate positive multiplier effects in general, and they also reveal a substantial variability across income categories and regions. The results indicate that low‐income economies are more inclined to spend their incomes on consumption and investments than middle‐income economies and, therefore, have a higher short‐run potential gain from receiving remittances. Low‐income economies typically reside in Sub‐Saharan Africa, whereas middle‐income economies are mainly found in East Europe, Latin America and North Africa and the Middle East. However, actual gains from remittances are highest in lower middle‐income economies because these countries receive more remittances. Generally, the short‐run effects are higher than the long‐run effects due to a sustained dependence of imported goods and services.

The paper analyzes the effects of remittances on components in aggregate demand.

The results support the World Bank's current policy recommendation that remittances should be promoted.

The paper corrects the algebraic solution for dynamic multiplier effects in Glytsos's work, written in 2005, and estimates the model for a macroeconomic panel containing 115 developing countries. The paper considers the effects of the net flows of remittances rather than of inflows only.

Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the aggregate macro behavior they co-create. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive literature survey on laboratory experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance. In particular, we discuss the extent to which expectations are rational or may be described by simple forecasting heuristics, at the individual as well as the aggregate level.

The purpose of this paper is to present a dynamic macroeconomic framework that identifies the fundamental structure of public debt accumulation process in developing countries and its two way linkages with economic growth and public finances. Within this framework, the objective of this study is to identify leverage points that may be utilized to slow down debt accumulation process without slowing down economic growth.

The paper uses the system dynamics (SD) method to model and analyze the debt accumulation process. This method allows us to analyze the relationship between structure and behaviour of complex dynamic systems. This paper considers fiscal policy as the strategic element of the debt accumulation process and hence it considers seignorage and consequent inflation to be outside the model boundary. In other words the paper assumes that there exists an effective monetary policy that satisfies the objectives of the fiscal policy.

Capping debt servicing (debt relief) increases the debtor country's capacity to invest and the higher investment will raise capacity to pay debt in the future, with some of the rewards going to the creditor. Financing public investment through borrowing produces the highest Debt-GDP ratio compared to all other polices considered. Widening of the tax base to include this informal sector without increasing the tax rate and reducing the extravagant non-debt current expenditure are effective endogenous policy options that help reduce considerably the Debt-GDP ratio. The best composite policy demonstrates that a reduction in the Debt-GDP ratio does not only require exogenous assistance (debt relief) but endogenous government and private sector responsibility to maintain fiscal discipline and generate growth.

The unique characteristic of this model is the transparent way in which it represents the two-way feedback relationship between the debt, public finance and economic development taking into consideration the delays and non-linearities involved in this process.