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1 – 10 of 285Kevin J. Simons, Marvin J. Dainoff and Leonard S. Mark
Cognitive work analysis (CWA) is a method of understanding and documenting the constraints inherent in a work domain, irrespective of the actions undertaken within the work domain…
Abstract
Cognitive work analysis (CWA) is a method of understanding and documenting the constraints inherent in a work domain, irrespective of the actions undertaken within the work domain and the actors who undertake them. The keystone of CWA is the abstraction–decomposition space (ADS), which provides a constraint-based overview of the system. CWA has been successfully applied in a variety of settings to create tools that make the underlying goals and constraints of the system more apparent, and allow a worker the flexibility to perform his or her job in a manner appropriate to the current conditions, without being restricted to a particular task flow. In the current study, semistructured protocol analysis was conducted with six research librarians in order to create an ADS representing the information research work domain. The resulting ADS was reviewed with the participants, who confirmed its accuracy. Insight provided by the ADS regarding the work domain of research librarians is discussed, as are implications for tools to support information research.
Dmitrij Celov and Mariarosaria Comunale
Recently, star variables and the post-crisis nature of cyclical fluctuations have attracted a great deal of interest. In this chapter, the authors investigate different methods of…
Abstract
Recently, star variables and the post-crisis nature of cyclical fluctuations have attracted a great deal of interest. In this chapter, the authors investigate different methods of assessing business cycles (BCs) for the European Union in general and the euro area in particular. First, the authors conduct a Monte Carlo (MC) experiment using a broad spectrum of univariate trend-cycle decomposition methods. The simulation aims to examine the ability of the analysed methods to find the observed simulated cycle with structural properties similar to actual macroeconomic data. For the simulation, the authors used the structural model’s parameters calibrated to the euro area’s real gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment rate. The simulation outcomes indicate the sufficient composition of the suite of models (SoM) consisting of popular Hodrick–Prescott, Christiano–Fitzgerald and structural trend-cycle-seasonal filters, then used for the real application. The authors find that: (i) there is a high level of model uncertainty in comparing the estimates; (ii) growth rate (acceleration) cycles have often the worst performances, but they could be useful as early-warning predictors of turning points in growth and BCs; and (iii) the best-performing MC approaches provide a reasonable combination as the SoM. When swings last less time and/or are smaller, it is easier to pick a good alternative method to the suite to capture the BC for real GDP. Second, the authors estimate the BCs for real GDP and unemployment data varying from 1995Q1 to 2020Q4 (GDP) or 2020Q3 (unemployment), ending up with 28 cycles per country. This analysis also confirms that the BCs of euro area members are quite synchronized with the aggregate euro area. Some major differences can be found, however, especially in the case of periphery and new member states, with the latter improving in terms of coherency after the global financial crisis. The German cycles are among the cyclical movements least synchronized with the aggregate euro area.
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Laura E. Jackson, M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok and Michael T. Owyang
We compare methods to measure comovement in business cycle data using multi-level dynamic factor models. To do so, we employ a Monte Carlo procedure to evaluate model performance…
Abstract
We compare methods to measure comovement in business cycle data using multi-level dynamic factor models. To do so, we employ a Monte Carlo procedure to evaluate model performance for different specifications of factor models across three different estimation procedures. We consider three general factor model specifications used in applied work. The first is a single-factor model, the second a two-level factor model, and the third a three-level factor model. Our estimation procedures are the Bayesian approach of Otrok and Whiteman (1998), the Bayesian state-space approach of Kim and Nelson (1998) and a frequentist principal components approach. The latter serves as a benchmark to measure any potential gains from the more computationally intensive Bayesian procedures. We then apply the three methods to a novel new dataset on house prices in advanced and emerging markets from Cesa-Bianchi, Cespedes, and Rebucci (2015) and interpret the empirical results in light of the Monte Carlo results.
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The discrete Fourier transform (dft) of a fractional process is studied. An exact representation of the dft is given in terms of the component data, leading to the frequency…
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The discrete Fourier transform (dft) of a fractional process is studied. An exact representation of the dft is given in terms of the component data, leading to the frequency domain form of the model for a fractional process. This representation is particularly useful in analyzing the asymptotic behavior of the dft and periodogram in the nonstationary case when the memory parameter
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Marco Gallegati, James B. Ramsey, Mauro Gallegati and Willi Semmler
Denis Tkachenko and Zhongjun Qu
The chapter considers parameter identification, estimation, and model diagnostics in medium scale DSGE models from a frequency domain perspective using the framework developed in…
Abstract
The chapter considers parameter identification, estimation, and model diagnostics in medium scale DSGE models from a frequency domain perspective using the framework developed in Qu and Tkachenko (2012). The analysis uses Smets and Wouters (2007) as an illustrative example, motivated by the fact that it has become a workhorse model in the DSGE literature. For identification, in addition to checking parameter identifiability, we derive the non-identification curve to depict parameter values that yield observational equivalence, revealing which and how many parameters need to be fixed to achieve local identification. For estimation and inference, we contrast estimates obtained using the full spectrum with those using only the business cycle frequencies to find notably different parameter values and impulse response functions. A further comparison between the nonparametrically estimated and model implied spectra suggests that the business cycle based method delivers better estimates of the features that the model is intended to capture. Overall, the results suggest that the frequency domain based approach, in part due to its ability to handle subsets of frequencies, constitutes a flexible framework for studying medium scale DSGE models.
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