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The purpose of this paper is to show the spatial extent and growth of tourism and its likely patterns as past forces of change are replaced by new pressures to reduce climate change and meet new definitions of success.

The approach involves a review of changes that have occurred over the Horizon period with a focus on the spatial spread and development of tourism, using and based on a literature review, past research and personal experience. Likely new developments are identified based on the expected result of influences including climate change mitigation and altered understandings of what is meant by success in tourism.

Much of the spatial change in tourism has been evolutionary rather than revolutionary, but in the future, restrictive forces external to tourism may change travel patterns with severe effects on long haul travel and a change in travel mode.

The research focus needs to produce effective measures of success as understood by all stakeholders in tourist destinations. Alternative destinations will need to replace those long haul destinations no longer available and research needs to refocus on managing rather than solely attracting visitors.

Long haul destinations will lose market share, destinations will change goals to satisfaction for stakeholders and travel modes will change to lower emission generators.

Destination choice will be reduced, transport modes may be limited and tourism closer to home will become the norm.

A general overview of this type has not been presented before.

揭示旅游业的空间范围和增长及其可能改变的模式, 因为以往的变化驱动力被减少气候变化的新压力并满足成功的新定义所取代。

由于缓解气候变化等影响和对旅游业成功含义的理解的改变而可能出现的一些新发展。本文基于文献综述、过去的研究和个人经验, 对综述期间发生的变化进行梳理, 重点关注旅游的空间扩散和发展。

过去, 旅游的很多空间变化是渐进式的, 而不是革命性的。但在未来, 旅游外部的限制性力量可能会改变旅行模式, 对长途旅行和旅行方式的变化产生严重影响。

研究重点需要产生为旅游目的地所有利益相关者所理解的, 有效的对于成功的衡量标准。替代性目的地将取代那些不可用的长途目的地。研究需要重新关注旅游业管理, 而不仅仅是吸引游客。

长途目的地将失去市场份额, 目的地将改变目标以满足利益相关者, 旅行模式将转变为低排放模式。

目的地的选择性将会减少, 交通方式可能会受到限制, 离家更近的旅游将成为常态。

这种类型的一般性概述以前没有研究过。

Mostrar la extensión espacial y el crecimiento del turismo y su probable patrón alterado a medida que las fuerzas de cambio del pasado son sustituidas por nuevas presiones para reducir el cambio climático y satisfacer nuevas definiciones de éxito.

Una revisión de los cambios que se han producido durante el periodo Horizonte, centrándose en la extensión espacial y el desarrollo del turismo, basándose en la revisión bibliográfica, la investigación previa y la experiencia personal, y los posibles nuevos desarrollos como resultado de antecedentes, incluyendo la mitigación del cambio climático y la alteración de la comprensión de lo que se entiende por éxito en el turismo.

Gran parte del cambio espacial en el turismo ha sido evolutivo más que revolucionario, pero, en el futuro, fuerzas restrictivas externas al turismo pueden cambiar los patrones de viaje con graves efectos en los viajes de larga distancia y un cambio en el modo de viajar.

El enfoque de la investigación necesita producir medidas efectivas de éxito tal y como las entienden todas las partes interesadas en los destinos turísticos. Los destinos alternativos tendrán que sustituir a los destinos de larga distancia que ya no estén disponibles y la investigación debe volver a centrarse en la gestión en lugar de únicamente en atraer visitantes.

Los destinos de larga distancia perderán cuota de mercado, los destinos cambiarán sus objetivos por la satisfacción de las partes interesadas y los modos de viaje cambiarán a generadores de menos emisiones.

Se reducirá la oferta de destinos, los modos de transporte pueden verse limitados y el turismo más cercano se convertirá en la norma.

No se había presentado antes una revisión general con este enfoque.

The objectives of this study are to (a) identify spatial and temporal crime concentrations, (b) supplement the traditional place-based analysis that defines hot spots based on counted incidents with an analysis of crime severity and (c) add to the research of hot spots with an analysis of offender data.

This study explores crime concentration in mass transit settings, focusing on Edmonton’s Light Rail Transit (LRT) stations in 2017–2022. Pareto curves are used to observe the degree of concentration of crime in certain locations using multiple estimates; trajectory analysis is then used to observe crime patterns in the data on both places and offenders.

A total of 16.3% of stations accounted for 50% of recorded incidents. Train stations with high or low crime counts and severity remained as such consistently over time. Additionally, 3.6% of offenders accounted for 50% of incident count, while 5% accounted for 50% of harm. We did not observe differences in the patterns and distributions of crime concentrations when comparing crime counts and harm.

Hot spots and harm spots are synonymous in low-crime-harm environments: high-harm incidents are outliers, and their weight in the average crime severity score is limited. More sensitive severity measures are needed for high-frequenty, low-harm enviornments.

The findings underscore the benefits of integrating offender data in place-based applied research.

The findings provide additional evidence on the utility of place-based criminology and potentially cost-effective interventions.

This study aims to develop a modelling framework of housing supply dynamics within the context of urban microsimulation systems. Housing markets have witnessed substantial investigation over recent decades, predominantly concerning residential demand. However, comparatively limited attention has been directed towards comprehending the housing supply dynamics. Housing policy disconnects with the developers’ market behaviours, which leads to significant mismatch between the housing construction and affordable housing needs of the population. Research attention should be made in comprehending the residential construction market activities. To address this gap, this study developed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and analyzed the temporal evolution of housing construction.

An ARDL model was developed to address the issue of temporal modelling of the housing supply. An empirical study was conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) based on a longitudinal housing starts data set from 1998 to 2020. The model integrates diverse variables, including macroeconomic conditions, property development costs, dwelling prices and opportunity costs. Notably, the model captures both the path-dependent effects stemming from supply market fluctuations and the temporal lag effect of influential factors.

The findings reveal that the supply-side’s responsiveness to market condition alterations may span up to 18 months. The model has reasonable and satisfying performance in fitting the observed starts. The methodological foundations laid will facilitate future modelling of housing supply dynamics.

This study innovatively separated the modelling of housing supply within the context of urban microsimulation, into two parts, the modelling of housing starts and completion. The housing starts are determined in a complex and regressive process influenced by both the micro-economic environment and the construction cost and housing market trends. Through the temporal modelling method, this study captures how long it would take for the housing supply to respond to multiple factors and provides insight for urban planners in regulating the housing market and leveraging various policies to influence the housing supply.

This study aims to investigate the impact of destination accessibility on pro-tourism behaviour directly and indirectly through environmental impacts and/or affective destination image from residents’ point of view. It also investigates the moderated mediation effect of residency length in the indirect relationships between destination accessibility and pro-tourism behaviour through the negative environmental impacts or affective destination image.

A quantitative method was applied. More specifically, the survey approach was found to be the most effective method of data collection for this research. In total, 351 questionnaires were collected through an online survey from people who currently live in Alexandria. The questionnaire was translated into Arabic while adhering to back-translation guidelines. SPSS and AMOS software were used to analyse the collected data.

The results showed that residents’ destination accessibility affects both destination image and destination environment but does not affect the pro-tourism behaviour. It indirectly affects the pro-tourism behaviour through only affective destination image. Residency length plays a moderation role in this indirect relationship.

The current study can help policymakers, governments and tourism institutions to make decisions. Policymakers can use these results to adopt a comprehensive policy that encompasses different interested parties in tourism, in order to ensure that tourism development efforts will succeed. The government can also join hands with tourism institutions to mitigate the negative impacts of tourism in order to balance the negative and positive impacts of tourism.

The study contributes to the existing literature by highlighting the importance of destination accessibility to support tourism behaviours in domestic tourism.

This study investigated consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a local, organic chicken breed “Taphao Thong-Kasetsart” and the drivers that shape consumers’ WTP across different meat preferences in Thailand.

Face-to-face interviewing was used to collect data at food-service outlets in Bangkok and Nakhon Pathom provinces, Thailand. Data analysis used the double-bounded dichotomous choice model across different consumers’ meat preferences for preferred chicken and non-preferred chicken consumers.

The results showed that there were different WTP amounts for local organic chicken across consumers’ meat preferences, with a higher WTP among non-preferred chicken consumers. This indicated that local organic chicken may attract more consumers in the alternative market. Consumers’ values and attitudes to taste drove chicken-preferred consumers to pay a premium for local organic chicken; health concerns mattered for non-preferred chicken consumers. These findings should provide useful information for food marketing campaigns based on consumers’ preferences.

The study contributed to understanding consumer heterogeneous preferences toward WTP for local organic chicken. The findings indicated that analyzing WTP across different meat preferences highlighted more effective marketing strategies to achieve the premium that consumers would pay. These strategies could help farmers to enlarge their local organic market share, leading to increased revenue and farmers’ well-being.

Due to the importance of quality to customers, this study considers criteria of quality and profit and optimizes both in a multi-echelon cold chain of perishable agricultural products whose quality immediately begins to deteriorate after harvest. The two objectives of the proposed cold chain are to maximize profit and quality. Since postharvest quality loss in the supply chain depends on various decisions and factors, in addition to strategic decisions, the authors consider the temperature setting in refrigerated facilities and transportation vehicles due to the unfixed shelf life of the products which is related to the temperature found by Arrhenius formula.

The authors use bi-objective mixed-integer nonlinear programming to design a four-echelon supply chain. The authors integrate the supply chain echelons to detect the sources and factors of quality loss. The four echelons include supply, processing, storage and customer. The decisions, including facility location, assigning nodes of each echelon to corresponding nodes from the adjacent echelon, allocation of vehicles to transport the products from farms to wholesalers, processing selection, and temperature setting in refrigerated facilities, are made in an integrated way. Model verification and validation in the case study are done based on three perishable herbal plants.

The model obtains a 29% profit against a total cost of 71 and 93% of original quality of the crops is maintained, indicating a 7% quality loss. The final quality of 93% is the result of making a US$6m investment in the supply chain, including the procurement of high-quality raw materials; facility establishment; high-speed, high-capacity vehicles; location assignment; processing selection and refrigeration equipment in the storage and transportation systems, helping to maximize both the final quality of the products and the total profit.

The proposed supply chain model should help managers with modeling decisions, especially when it comes to cold chains for agricultural products. The model yields these results – optimal location-allocation decisions for the facilities to minimize distances between the network nodes, which save time and maintain the majority of the products’ original quality; choosing the most appropriate processing method, which reduces the perishability rate; providing high-capacity, high-speed vehicles in the logistics system, which minimizes transportation costs and maximizes the quality; and setting the right temperature in the refrigerated facilities, which mitigates the postharvest decay reaction rate of the products.

Comparison of the results of the present research with those of the traditional chain (obtained through experts) shows that since the designed chain increases the profit as well as the final quality, it has benefits for the main chain stakeholders, which are customers of agricultural products. This study model is expected to have a positive impact on the environment by placing strong emphasis on quality and preventing excessive waste generation and air pollution by imposing a financial penalty on extra demand production.

Since profit and quality of the final product are two important factors in all cultures and communities, the proposed supply chain model can be used in any food industry around the world. Applying the proposed model induces growth in local industries and promotes the culture of prioritizing quality in societies.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research on a bi-objective four-echelon (supply, processing, storage and customer) postharvest supply chain for agricultural products including that integrates transportation logistics and considers the deterioration rate of products as a time-dependent variable at different levels of decision-making.

In response to the navigation challenges faced by coal mine tunnel inspection robots in semistructured underground intersection environments, many current studies rely on structured map-based planning algorithms and trajectory tracking techniques. However, this approach is highly dependent on the accuracy of the global map, which can lead to deviations from the predetermined route or collisions with obstacles. To improve the environmental adaptability and navigation precision of the robot, this paper aims to propose an adaptive navigation system based on a two-dimensional (2D) LiDAR.

Leveraging the geometric features of coal mine tunnel environments, the clustering and fitting algorithms are used to construct a geometric model within the navigation system. This not only reduces the complexity of the navigation system but also optimizes local positioning. By constructing a local potential field, there is no need for path-fitting planning, thus enhancing the robot’s adaptability in intersection environments. The feasibility of the algorithm principles is validated through MATLAB and robot operating system simulations in this paper.

The experiments demonstrate that this method enables autonomous driving and optimized positioning capabilities in harsh environments, with high real-time performance and environmental adaptability, achieving a positioning error rate of less than 3%.

This paper presents an adaptive navigation system for a coal mine tunnel inspection robot using a 2D LiDAR sensor. The system improves robot attitude estimation and motion control accuracy to ensure safe and reliable navigation, especially at tunnel intersections.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the thermoelastic interactions in a homogeneous, transversely isotropic infinite medium with a spherical cavity in the context of two temperature Lord-Shulman (2TLS) generalized theory of thermoelasticity considering Eringen’s nonlocal theory and memory dependent derivative (MDD). Memory-dependent derivative is found to be better than fractional calculus for reflecting the memory effect which leads us to the current investigation.

The governing field equations of the problem are solved analytically using the eigenvalue approach in the transformed domain of Laplace when the cavity’s boundary is being loaded thermomechanically. Using MATLAB software the numerical solution in real space-time domain is obtained by Stehfest method.

Numerical results for the different thermophysical quantities are presented in graphs and the effects of delay time parameter, non-local parameter and two temperature parameters are studied thereafter. The outcomes of this study convince that the displacement u, conductive temperature ϕ, thermodynamic temperature θ are concave upward whereas radial stress τ_rr is concave downward for every choice of delay time parameter ω, two temperature parameter η and non-local parameter “ζ”. As a specific instance of our findings, the conclusions of an equivalent problem involving integer order thermoelasticity theory can be obtained, and the corresponding results of this article can be readily inferred for isotropic materials.

The novelty of this research lies in the adoption of generalized thermoelastic theory with memory dependent derivative and Eringen’s nonlocality for analyzing the thermoelastic interactions in an infinite body with spherical cavity by employing eigenvalue approach. It has applications to many thermo-dynamical systems.

The research focused on analysing a unique type of heat exchanger that uses swirling air flow over heated tubes. This heat exchanger includes a round baffle plate with holes and opposite-oriented trapezoidal air deflectors attached at different angles. The deflectors are spaced at various distances, and the tubes are arranged in a circular pattern while maintaining a constant heat flux.

This setup is housed inside a circular duct with airflow in the longitudinal direction. The study examined the impact of different inclination angles and pitch ratios on the performance of the heat exchanger within a specific range of Reynolds numbers.

The findings revealed that the angle of inclination significantly affected the flow velocity, with higher angles resulting in increased velocity. The heat transfer performance was best at lower inclination angles and pitch ratios. Flow resistance decreased with increasing angle of inclination and pitch ratio.

The average thermal enhancement factor decreased with higher inclination angles, with the maximum value observed as 0.94 at a pitch ratio of 1 at an angle of 30°.

Mosques are built with dome-shaped ceilings for communal worship with common architectural styles worldwide for prayer. Since the acoustics of worship buildings are just as significant as their aesthetics, they should enhance people’s sense of hearing. This study evaluates the speech intelligibility of a small mosque with multiple domes to determine the space acoustic conditions.

The investigation involved extensive literature reviews to collect relevant data to model the case study. The Enhanced Acoustics Simulator for Engineers (EASE) software program was used to integrate critical parameters such as the absorption coefficient of materials, dome shapes and the number of domes in the simulation. The study employed speech intelligibility parameters such as C50, S.T.I. and %ALcons to assess the acoustic conditions. The assessment model was validated through statistical analysis and a paired t-test.

The study discovered that varying shapes of the multiple domes showed no significant impact on speech intelligibility. However, different multiple domes materials resulted in significant disparities in speech intelligibility. Applying high-absorption materials in multiple dome designs achieved the most effective acoustic performance. Except for C50 in some circumstances and receiver positions, all other alternatives met the optimal value for overall speech intelligibility because the sound was not sufficiently diffused early on, suggesting that the early reflection sounds were either weak or insufficient.

This study not only helps to determine the multiple-dome effect on mosque acoustics but also empowers archaeoacoustics and historic conservation by documenting these significant places of worship. The findings advocate using high-absorption materials in multiple dome designs and offer practical insight into mosque design material selection. By enhancing the understanding of the acoustic conditions in small-scale mosques, this study equips architects, engineers and builders with the knowledge to create spaces prioritizing speech clarity and intelligibility.