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Crime linkage analysis (CLA) can be applied in the police investigation-phase to sift through a database to find behaviorally similar cases to the one under investigation and in the trial-phase to try to prove that the perpetrator of two or more offences is the same, by showing similarity and distinctiveness in the offences. Lately, research has moved toward more naturalistic settings, analyzing data sets that are as similar to actual crime databases as possible. One such step has been to include one-off offences in the data sets, but this has not yet been done with homicide. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how linking accuracy of serial homicide is affected as a function of added hard-to-solve one-off offences.

A sample (N = 117–1160) of Italian serial homicides (n = 116) and hard-to-solve one-off homicides (n = 1–1044, simulated from 45 cases) was analyzed using a Bayesian approach to identify series membership, and a case by case comparison of similarity using Jaccard’s coefficient. Linking accuracy was evaluated using receiver operating characteristics and by examining the sensitivity and specificity of the model.

After an initial dip in linking accuracy (as measured by the AUC), the accuracy increased as more one-offs were added to the data. While adding one-offs made it easier to identify correct series (increased sensitivity), there was an increase in false positives (decreased specificity) in the linkage decisions. When rank ordering cases according to similarity, linkage accuracy was affected negatively as a function of added non-serial cases.

While using a more natural data set, in terms of adding a significant portion of non-serial homicides into the mix, does introduce error into the linkage decision, the authors conclude that taken overall, the findings still support the validity of CLA in practice.

This is the first crime linkage study on homicide to investigate how linking accuracy is affected as a function of non-serial cases being introduced into the data.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the differences (if any) between serial and hard-to-solve one-off homicides, and to determine if it is possible to distinguish the two types of homicides based on offence behaviours and victim characteristics.

A sample of 116 Italian serial homicides was compared to 45 hard-to-solve one-off homicides. Hard-to-solve one-off homicides were defined as having at least 72 hours pass between when the offence came to the knowledge of the police and when the offender was caught. Logistic regression was used to predict whether a killing was part of a series or a one-off offence.

The serial killers targeted more strangers and prostitutes, displayed a higher level of forensic awareness both before and after the killing, and had more often an apparent sexual element in their offence. Conversely, the one-off homicides were found to include more traits indicative of impulsive and expressive behaviour. The model demonstrated a good ability (AUC=0.88) to predict whether a homicide belonged to the serial or one-off category.

The findings should be replicated using local homicide data to maximise the validity of the model in countries outside of Italy.

Being able to distinguish between serial and one-off homicides based on information available at a new crime scene could be practically useful for homicide investigators managing finite resources.

Studies comparing serial homicides to one-off homicides are scarce, and there are no studies explicitly trying to predict whether a homicide is an isolated case or part of a series.

Homicidal behaviour is influenced by a complex interaction of behavioural, situational and environmental factors that raise many challenging psychological questions. A large and continually growing body of research has explored the crime of homicide, its epidemiology, victims and perpetrators. The area is developing rapidly, opening up new avenues of study. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

This special issue of the Journal of Criminal Psychology brings together an exciting array of papers on homicidal behaviour, examining a wide range of issues including juvenile homicide perpetrators, school shootings, child homicide, homicide-suicide and differences in offence behaviours and victim characteristics between hard-to-solve one-off homicides and serial homicides.

The range of papers included in this special edition cover a wide range of aspects of homicidal behaviour, reflecting the importance of – and the need for – applied research moving away from examining general homicide to specialised research focusing on subtypes of homicide and subgroups of homicide offenders. A research agenda is proposed.

This editorial gives an introduction to the themes explored in this special issue and provides an overview of the selected papers.

The Arsenale was the largest medieval industrial enterprise, famous for its assembly line. Management faced extreme variations between peace-time and war-time demands. Satisfying these unpredictable and sudden demands for a large, complex product with a multiple years–long production cycle was challenging. The purpose of this study is to analyze the Arsenale’s operations and supply chain arrangements, and to identify and assess their management policies. We also track its development and investigate its influence on other countries.

The research methodology used is archival research with content analysis of text and graphic representations of production processes.

These reveal that Venice’s supply chain management evolved from simply exploiting woodlands as needs arose, to a managed forest with planned planting, cultivation and harvesting, ending with the active modification of growing trees so their natural growth was artificially shaped to satisfy production requirements. Instead of fabricating components in their factory, the Venetians formed them by shaping the trees while they were still growing. These arboriculture techniques then provided a planned and regular supply of high-quality components that purely natural processes provided only randomly.

There may be undiscovered archival documents despite the authors’ best efforts. The development of this historic supply chain reflects modern managerial concerns.

Modern restorations of historic ships and buildings use some of the fabrication methods identified, although the more intensive techniques would require higher volume production.

This reveals historical forestry practices emphasised long-term needs and sustainable use.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is a unique long-term investigation of an integrated production system and considers its influence on Iberian, French, British and American forestry and ship building. The close integration of production requirements with forestry practices was a novel finding.