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1 – 10 of 100Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction…
Abstract
Purpose
For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction problem based on the CSI300 nearby futures by using high-frequency data recorded each minute from the launch date of the futures to roughly two years after constituent stocks of the futures all becoming shortable, a time period witnessing significantly increased trading activities.
Design/methodology/approach
In order to answer questions as follows, this study adopts the neural network for modeling the irregular trading volume series of the CSI300 nearby futures: are the research able to utilize the lags of the trading volume series to make predictions; if this is the case, how far can the predictions go and how accurate can the predictions be; can this research use predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures for improving prediction accuracy and what is the corresponding magnitude; how sophisticated is the model; and how robust are its predictions?
Findings
The results of this study show that a simple neural network model could be constructed with 10 hidden neurons to robustly predict the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures using 1–20 min ahead trading volume data. The model leads to the root mean square error of about 955 contracts. Utilizing additional predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures could further benefit prediction accuracy and the magnitude of improvements is about 1–2%. This benefit is particularly significant when the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures is close to be zero. Another benefit, at the cost of the model becoming slightly more sophisticated with more hidden neurons, is that predictions could be generated through 1–30 min ahead trading volume data.
Originality/value
The results of this study could be used for multiple purposes, including designing financial index trading systems and platforms, monitoring systematic financial risks and building financial index price forecasting.
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Keywords
Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
The Chinese housing market has gone through rapid growth during the past decade, and house price forecasting has evolved to be a significant issue that draws enormous attention…
Abstract
Purpose
The Chinese housing market has gone through rapid growth during the past decade, and house price forecasting has evolved to be a significant issue that draws enormous attention from investors, policy makers and researchers. This study investigates neural networks for composite property price index forecasting from ten major Chinese cities for the period of July 2005–April 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
The goal is to build simple and accurate neural network models that contribute to pure technical forecasts of composite property prices. To facilitate the analysis, the authors consider different model settings across algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data spitting ratios.
Findings
The authors arrive at a pretty simple neural network with six delays and three hidden neurons, which generates rather stable performance of average relative root mean square errors across the ten cities below 1% for the training, validation and testing phases.
Originality/value
Results here could be utilized on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to help form perspectives of composite property price trends and conduct policy analysis.
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Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important…
Abstract
Purpose
The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important issue to investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine neural networks (NNs) for office property price index forecasting from 10 major Chinese cities for July 2005–April 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors aim at building simple and accurate NNs to contribute to pure technical forecasts of the Chinese office property market. To facilitate the analysis, the authors explore different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data-spitting ratios.
Findings
The authors reach a simple NN with three delays and three hidden neurons, which leads to stable performance of about 1.45% average relative root mean square error across the 10 cities for the training, validation and testing phases.
Originality/value
The results could be used on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to form perspectives of office property price trends and conduct policy analysis.
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Keywords
Çağın Bolat, Nuri Özdoğan, Sarp Çoban, Berkay Ergene, İsmail Cem Akgün and Ali Gökşenli
This study aims to elucidate the machining properties of low-cost expanded clay-reinforced syntactic foams by using different neural network models for the first time in the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to elucidate the machining properties of low-cost expanded clay-reinforced syntactic foams by using different neural network models for the first time in the literature. The main goal of this endeavor is to create a casting machining-neural network modeling flow-line for real-time foam manufacturing in the industry.
Design/methodology/approach
Samples were manufactured via an industry-based die-casting technology. For the slot milling tests performed with different cutting speeds, depth of cut and lubrication conditions, a 3-axis computer numerical control (CNC) machine was used and the force data were collected through a digital dynamometer. These signals were used as input parameters in neural network modelings.
Findings
Among the algorithms, the scaled-conjugated-gradient (SCG) methodology was the weakest average results, whereas the Levenberg–Marquard (LM) approach was highly successful in foreseeing the cutting forces. As for the input variables, an increase in the depth of cut entailed the cutting forces, and this circumstance was more obvious at the higher cutting speeds.
Research limitations/implications
The effect of milling parameters on the cutting forces of low-cost clay-filled metallic syntactics was examined, and the correct detection of these impacts is considerably prominent in this paper. On the other side, tool life and wear analyses can be studied in future investigations.
Practical implications
It was indicated that the milling forces of the clay-added AA7075 syntactic foams, depending on the cutting parameters, can be anticipated through artificial neural network modeling.
Social implications
It is hoped that analyzing the influence of the cutting parameters using neural network models on the slot milling forces of metallic syntactic foams (MSFs) will be notably useful for research and development (R&D) researchers and design engineers.
Originality/value
This work is the first investigation that focuses on the estimation of slot milling forces of the expanded clay-added AA7075 syntactic foams by using different artificial neural network modeling approaches.
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Anil Kumar Swain, Aleena Swetapadma, Jitendra Kumar Rout and Bunil Kumar Balabantaray
The objective of the proposed work is to identify the most commonly occurring non–small cell carcinoma types, such as adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, within the human…
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of the proposed work is to identify the most commonly occurring non–small cell carcinoma types, such as adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, within the human population. Another objective of the work is to reduce the false positive rate during the classification.
Design/methodology/approach
In this work, a hybrid method using convolutional neural networks (CNNs), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs) has been proposed to distinguish between lung adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. To extract features from non–small cell lung carcinoma images, a three-layer convolution and three-layer max-pooling-based CNN is used. A few important features have been selected from the extracted features using the XGBoost algorithm as the optimal feature. Finally, LSTM has been used for the classification of carcinoma types. The accuracy of the proposed method is 99.57 per cent, and the false positive rate is 0.427 per cent.
Findings
The proposed CNN–XGBoost–LSTM hybrid method has significantly improved the results in distinguishing between adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. The importance of the method can be outlined as follows: It has a very low false positive rate of 0.427 per cent. It has very high accuracy, i.e. 99.57 per cent. CNN-based features are providing accurate results in classifying lung carcinoma. It has the potential to serve as an assisting aid for doctors.
Practical implications
It can be used by doctors as a secondary tool for the analysis of non–small cell lung cancers.
Social implications
It can help rural doctors by sending the patients to specialized doctors for more analysis of lung cancer.
Originality/value
In this work, a hybrid method using CNN, XGBoost and LSTM has been proposed to distinguish between lung adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. A three-layer convolution and three-layer max-pooling-based CNN is used to extract features from the non–small cell lung carcinoma images. A few important features have been selected from the extracted features using the XGBoost algorithm as the optimal feature. Finally, LSTM has been used for the classification of carcinoma types.
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Everton Boos, Fermín S.V. Bazán and Vanda M. Luchesi
This paper aims to reconstruct the spatially varying orthotropic conductivity based on a two-dimensional inverse heat conduction problem described by a partial differential…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to reconstruct the spatially varying orthotropic conductivity based on a two-dimensional inverse heat conduction problem described by a partial differential equation (PDE) model with mixed boundary conditions. The proposed discretization uses a highly accurate technique and allows simple implementations. Also, the authors solve the related inverse problem in such a way that smoothness is enforced on the iterations, showing promising results in synthetic examples and real problems with moving heat source.
Design/methodology/approach
The discretization procedure applied to the model for the direct problem uses a pseudospectral collocation strategy in the spatial variables and Crank–Nicolson method for the time-dependent variable. Then, the related inverse problem of recovering the conductivity from temperature measurements is solved by a modified version of Levenberg–Marquardt method (LMM) which uses singular scaling matrices. Problems where data availability is limited are also considered, motivated by a face milling operation problem. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.
Findings
The paper presents a discretization for the PDEs model aiming on simple implementations and numerical performance. The modified version of LMM introduced using singular scaling matrices shows the capabilities on recovering quantities with precision at a low number of iterations. Numerical results showed good fit between exact and approximate solutions for synthetic noisy data and quite acceptable inverse solutions when experimental data are inverted.
Originality/value
The paper is significant because of the pseudospectral approach, known for its high precision and easy implementation, and usage of singular regularization matrices on LMM iterations, unlike classic implementations of the method, impacting positively on the reconstruction process.
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Deepak Kumar Prajapati, Jitendra Kumar Katiyar and Chander Prakash
This study aims to use a machine learning (ML) model for the prediction of traction coefficient and asperity load ratio for different surface topographies of non-conformal rough…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to use a machine learning (ML) model for the prediction of traction coefficient and asperity load ratio for different surface topographies of non-conformal rough contacts.
Design/methodology/approach
The input data set for the ML model is generated using a mixed-lubrication model. Surface topography parameters (skewness, kurtosis and pattern ratio), rolling speed and hardness are used as input features in the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model. The hyperparameter tuning and fivefold cross-validation are also performed to minimize the overfitting.
Findings
From the results, it is shown that the MLP model shows excellent accuracy (R2 > 90%) on the test data set for making the prediction of mixed lubrication parameters. It is also observed that engineered rough surfaces with high negative skewness, low kurtosis and isotropic surface patterns exhibit a significant low traction coefficient. It is also concluded that the MLP model gives better accuracy in comparison to the random forest regression model based on the training and testing data sets.
Originality/value
Mixed lubrication parameters are predicted by developing a regression-based MLP model. The machine learning model is trained using several topography parameters, which are vital in the mixed-EHL regime because of the lack of regression-fit expressions in previous works. The accuracy of MLP with random forest models is also compared.
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Nikita Dhankar, Srikanta Routroy and Satyendra Kumar Sharma
The internal (farmer-controlled) and external (non-farmer-controlled) factors affect crop yield. However, not a single study has identified and analyzed yield predictors in India…
Abstract
Purpose
The internal (farmer-controlled) and external (non-farmer-controlled) factors affect crop yield. However, not a single study has identified and analyzed yield predictors in India using effective predictive models. Thus, this study aims to investigate how internal and external predictors impact pearl millet yield and Stover yield.
Design/methodology/approach
Descriptive analytics and artificial neural network are used to investigate the impact of predictors on pearl millet yield and Stover yield. From descriptive analytics, 473 valid responses were collected from semi-arid zone, and the predictors were categorized into internal and external factors. Multi-layer perceptron-neural network (MLP-NN) model was used in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 25 to model them.
Findings
The MLP-NN model reveals that rainfall has the highest normalized importance, followed by irrigation frequency, crop rotation frequency, fertilizers type and temperature. The model has an acceptable goodness of fit because the training and testing methods have average root mean square errors of 0.25 and 0.28, respectively. Also, the model has R2 values of 0.863 and 0.704, respectively, for both pearl millet and Stover yield.
Research limitations/implications
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study is first of its kind related to impact of predictors of both internal and external factors on pearl millet yield and Stover yield.
Originality/value
The literature reveals that most studies have estimated crop yield using limited parameters and forecasting approaches. However, this research will examine the impact of various predictors such as internal and external of both yields. The outcomes of the study will help policymakers in developing strategies for stakeholders. The current work will improve pearl millet yield literature.
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Abdelhadi Ifleh and Mounime El Kabbouri
The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in…
Abstract
Purpose
The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in attractive SMs. This article aims to apply a correlation feature selection model to identify important technical indicators (TIs), which are combined with multiple deep learning (DL) algorithms for forecasting SM indices.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology involves using a correlation feature selection model to select the most relevant features. These features are then used to predict the fluctuations of six markets using various DL algorithms, and the results are compared with predictions made using all features by using a range of performance measures.
Findings
The experimental results show that the combination of TIs selected through correlation and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) provides good results in the MADEX market. The combination of selected indicators and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) in the NASDAQ 100 market outperforms all other combinations of variables and models. In other markets, the combination of all variables with ANN provides the best results.
Originality/value
This article makes several significant contributions, including the use of a correlation feature selection model to select pertinent variables, comparison between multiple DL algorithms (ANN, CNN and Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM)), combining selected variables with algorithms to improve predictions, evaluation of the suggested model on six datasets (MASI, MADEX, FTSE 100, SP500, NASDAQ 100 and EGX 30) and application of various performance measures (Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (MSLE) and Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE)).
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G. Deepa, A.J. Niranjana and A.S. Balu
This study aims at proposing a hybrid model for early cost prediction of a construction project. Early cost prediction for a construction project is the basic approach to procure…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims at proposing a hybrid model for early cost prediction of a construction project. Early cost prediction for a construction project is the basic approach to procure a project within a predefined budget. However, most of the projects routinely face the impact of cost overruns. Furthermore, conventional and manual cost computing techniques are hectic, time-consuming and error-prone. To deal with such challenges, soft computing techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms are applied in construction management. Each technique has its own constraints not only in terms of efficiency but also in terms of feasibility, practicability, reliability and environmental impacts. However, appropriate combination of the techniques improves the model owing to their inherent nature.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper proposes a hybrid model by combining machine learning (ML) techniques with ANN to accurately predict the cost of pile foundations. The parameters contributing toward the cost of pile foundations were collected from five different projects in India. Out of 180 collected data entries, 176 entries were finally used after data cleaning. About 70% of the final data were used for building the model and the remaining 30% were used for validation.
Findings
The proposed model is capable of predicting the pile foundation costs with an accuracy of 97.42%.
Originality/value
Although various cost estimation techniques are available, appropriate use and combination of various ML techniques aid in improving the prediction accuracy. The proposed model will be a value addition to cost estimation of pile foundations.
Details