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This paper aims to derive the time-varying relative export competitiveness (REC) of the Nigerian cocoa sector against Nigeria’s share of world agricultural exports (REC_WA) and world merchandise exports (REC_WM) from 1995 to 2018. By concentrating on different factors such as demand and supply capacity, price factors and exchange rate, the authors examine the determinants of REC.

The authors calculated three different REC indexes. The authors also developed the relative symmetric export competitiveness index for comparative advantage calculation and avoiding the possible bias. The determinants of REC for Nigerian cocoa were captured using the short-run regression (SRR) model.

The study showed that Nigeria’s cocoa exports are still competitive despite experiencing some declining stages. Based on the SRR model, higher per capita income had a positive effect on the REC, while higher domestic prices significantly reduced the REC of cocoa. Further, the African Growth Opportunity Act agreement adversely affected the REC of cocoa.

This study provides a foundation for future research and enhances the literature on agricultural trade. This research makes a few contributions both from a scientific and a policy perspective. First, it is the first study on the REC analysis for the Nigerian cocoa industry. Second, a wide range of comparisons of REC among the world’s largest cocoa exporters was provided following implications of the various economic policies and local policy strategies. Third, the latest 24-year data sets were covered.