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1 – 10 of over 57000Business cycle theory is normally described as having evolved out of a previous tradition of writers focusing exclusively on crises. In this account, the turning point is seen as…
Abstract
Business cycle theory is normally described as having evolved out of a previous tradition of writers focusing exclusively on crises. In this account, the turning point is seen as residing in Clément Juglar's contribution on commercial crises and their periodicity. It is well known that the champion of this view is Schumpeter, who propagated it on several occasions. The same author, however, pointed to a number of other writers who, before and at the same time as Juglar, stressed one or another of the aspects for which Juglar is credited primacy, including the recognition of periodicity and the identification of endogenous elements enabling the recognition of crises as a self-generating phenomenon. There is indeed a vast literature, both primary and secondary, relating to the debates on crises and fluctuations around the middle of the nineteenth century, from which it is apparent that Juglar's book Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis (originally published in 1862 and very much revised and enlarged in 1889) did not come out of the blue but was one of the products of an intellectual climate inducing the thinking of crises not as unrelated events but as part of a more complex phenomenon consisting of recurring crises related to the development of the commercial world – an interpretation corroborated by the almost regular occurrence of crises at about 10-year intervals.
Theories of the business cycle can be classified into two main groups, exogenous and endogenous, according to the way they explain economic fluctuations – either as responses of…
Abstract
Theories of the business cycle can be classified into two main groups, exogenous and endogenous, according to the way they explain economic fluctuations – either as responses of the economy to factors that are external (exogenous shocks) or as upturns and downturns of the economic system internally generated (by endogenous factors). In endogenous theories, investment is generally a key variable to explain the dynamic status of the economy. This essay examines the role of investment in endogenous theories. Two contrasting views on how changes in investment and profitability push the economy towards expansion or contraction are represented by the insights of Kalecki, Keynes, Matthews and Minsky versus those of Marx and Mitchell. Hyman Minsky claimed that investment ‘calls the tune’ to indicate that investment is the only variable not determined by other variables, so that future profits, investment and the dynamic status of the economy are determined by current investment and investment in the near past. However, this hypothesis does not appear to be supported by available empirical data for 251 quarters of the US economy. Statistical evidence rather supports the hypothesis of causality in the direction of profits determining investment and, in this way, leading the economy towards boom or bust.
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This chapter investigates the nature of the transformation of macroeconomics by focusing on the impact of the Great Depression on economic doctrines. There is no doubt that the…
Abstract
This chapter investigates the nature of the transformation of macroeconomics by focusing on the impact of the Great Depression on economic doctrines. There is no doubt that the Great Depression exerted an enormous influence on economic thought, but the exact nature of its impact should be examined more carefully. In this chapter, I examine the transformation from a perspective which emphasizes the interaction between economic ideas and economic events, and the interaction between theory and policy rather than the development of economic theory. More specifically, I examine the evolution of what became known as macroeconomics after the Depression in terms of an ongoing debate among the “stabilizers” and their critics. I further suggest using four perspectives, or schools of thought, as measures to locate the evolution and transformation; the gold standard mentality, liquidationism, the Treasury view, and the real-bills doctrine. By highlighting these four economic ideas, I argue that what happened during the Great Depression was the retreat of the gold standard mentality, the complete demise of liquidationism and the Treasury view, and the strange survival of the real-bills doctrine. Each of those transformations happened not in response to internal debates in the discipline, but in response to government policies and real-world events.
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Seeks to demonstrate that the Talmudic scholars possessedtheoretical knowledge and practical experience regarding the marketphenomenon of business disturbances, recognizing the…
Abstract
Seeks to demonstrate that the Talmudic scholars possessed theoretical knowledge and practical experience regarding the market phenomenon of business disturbances, recognizing the existence of a causal relationship between the physical determinants of the cycles of the weather patterns and the fortunes of the agricultural sector, a condition which affected the economy as a whole. Discusses this linkage with respect to the insights in Johanan′s works. These come close to Hawtrey′s view of the business cycle as a monetary phenomenon, on the one hand, and Samuelson′s discussion of “supply shock” as a result of “...droughts and crop failures in agriculture”, on the other. Johanan also recognized the existence of a quantitativerelationship between money and prices, and prices and incomes. This suggests that the Talmudic scholars had come to appreciate the fundamentals of what was later to emerge as the quantity theory of money.
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Kalecki's theory of the business cycle is rightly renowned for various reasons: in particular, besides itself providing an original contribution, it set the framework for…
Abstract
Kalecki's theory of the business cycle is rightly renowned for various reasons: in particular, besides itself providing an original contribution, it set the framework for Kalecki's ideas on effective demand, for his anticipation of a number of Keynesian elements, and for the development of Kalecki's related themes such as income determination and distribution. Although the secondary literature (both technical and descriptive) on this subject is immense, a specific aspect seems to deserve further reflection.
Nobody concerned with political economy can neglect the history of economic doctrines. Structural changes in the economy and society influence economic thinking and, conversely…
Abstract
Nobody concerned with political economy can neglect the history of economic doctrines. Structural changes in the economy and society influence economic thinking and, conversely, innovative thought structures and attitudes have almost always forced economic institutions and modes of behaviour to adjust. We learn from the history of economic doctrines how a particular theory emerged and whether, and in which environment, it could take root. We can see how a school evolves out of a common methodological perception and similar techniques of analysis, and how it has to establish itself. The interaction between unresolved problems on the one hand, and the search for better solutions or explanations on the other, leads to a change in paradigma and to the formation of new lines of reasoning. As long as the real world is subject to progress and change scientific search for explanation must out of necessity continue.
Abigail Naa Korkor Adjei, George Tweneboah and Peterson Owusu Junior
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interdependence between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and business cycles within and among six emerging market economies (EMEs…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interdependence between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and business cycles within and among six emerging market economies (EMEs) from January 1999 to December 2018.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts the wavelet multiple correlations and wavelet multiple cross-correlation (WMCC) based on the maximal overlap discrete transform estimator. This methodology simultaneously investigates how two or more time series variables move together continuously at both time and frequency domains.
Findings
The empirical results show that business cycles comove with EPU for both intra- and inter-country analysis, with the long term showing the greatest degree of interdependence. In intra-country comparisons, EPU has a positive correlation with consumer price index and a negative correlation with share price index. According to the WMCC results, EPU does not have any leading or lagging power within each EME, but rather import has both lead and lag power. The inter-country WMCC results are all significant, with Korea’s EPU leading/following all EMEs across all scales.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the ongoing debate about what causes business cycles to comove by investigating business cycle indicators (leader/follower) using a robust wavelet methodology. The authors propose new variables that can clearly reflect the outcome of economic policy actions and translate information about EPU shocks. The inclusion of the variables has altered the understanding of the relationship between EPU and business cycle fluctuations. Policymakers also gain new insights into the trends and patterns of EPU and business cycles, which will help them formulate and implement fiscal and monetary policies more effectively.
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The purpose of this paper is to explain how the process of change is determined by the product lifecycle and the product lifecycle's relation to the organization structure.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explain how the process of change is determined by the product lifecycle and the product lifecycle's relation to the organization structure.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper is based on years of experience helping business organizations adapt to change by installing computer systems and consulting with senior management in this process.
Findings
Business organizations are highly variable in their structure, it is the environment that determines the organization structure. Where businesses are in a stable environment business organizations are capital intensive. Where the environment is highly volatile capital investment is limited and small flexible organizations prevail. In addition, there is a biological theory that totally parallels this theory.
Originality/value
Those who fail to understand the concepts are inclined to make massive mistakes in capital investment. This is often the reason why small startup companies are able to beat out larger established competitors in highly volatile environments.
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Gene Callahan and Andreas Hoffmann
In this chapter, we explore whether various true, endogenous social cycle theories share common patterns and characteristics.We examine a number of prominent social theories…
Abstract
In this chapter, we explore whether various true, endogenous social cycle theories share common patterns and characteristics.
We examine a number of prominent social theories describing cyclical patterns, and attempt to abstract an ideal type common to all of them, based on the idea of two populations disrupting each other and adjusting to the other’s disruptions.
At the core of such theories we typically find a variation of a two-population model. In these theories, cycles emerge when one of the populations seems to disrupt the other population’s plans, leading to recurring adjustments and disruptions that constitute the cycle.
Finding such commonalities in the world of theories can be useful for several reasons. For one thing, noticing that two theories share certain traits may help us understand each of them better. Furthermore, we show that agent-based modelers using modern object-oriented programming techniques can benefit from finding common patterns in theories.
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Richard Reed and Hao Wu
This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the lack of research into property cycles in the residential sector on a suburb or smaller region basis, as well as the potential for increased knowledge about cycles to assist to avoid housing stress.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper conducts a literature review of previous cycle research and encourages the use of cycle theory. It discusses the established body of knowledge about business cycles and the office market sector, as well as investigating levels of housing affordability and how detailed knowledge about property cycles can assist to decrease housing affordability in residential areas, which will eventually experience a downturn.
Findings
It is argued that an increased level of certainty about cycle behaviour in particular suburbs will give households a higher level of confidence when considering whether and when to enter the market. Property cycle research has the potential to assist low‐income homeowners to better understand the characteristics of cycles and associated risks in each residential.
Research limitations/implications
This is a conceptual paper and has conducted a review of cycle research and housing affordability in certain countries. Some areas or countries may be affected to varying degrees by property cycles and levels of housing affordability.
Practical implications
In extended periods of high volatility it is argued that a better understanding of housing cycles will allow more homeowners to avoid negative equity and the stress associated with repossessions. Property cycles are unavoidable although there is typically relatively little information available in the open market about the timing and amplitude of cycles in individual areas.
Originality/value
This paper is unique as it highlights the potential for property cycles to be used to avoid housing stress in the residential market. Traditionally cycle research is used to increase returns and avoid downturns in the office and/or business sectors.
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