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The time series of the federal funds rate has recently been extended back to 1928, now including several episodes during which interest rates remained near the lower bound of zero. This series is analyzed, using the method of indirect inference, by applying recent research on bounded time series to estimate a set of bounded parametric diffusion models. This combination uncouples the specification of the bounds from the law of motion. Although Louis Bachelier was the first to use arithmetic Brownian motion to model financial time series, he has often been criticized for this proposal, since the process can take on negative values. Most researchers favor processes such as geometric Brownian motion (GBM), which remains positive. Under this framework, Bachelier's proposal remains valid when specified with bounds and is shown to compare favorably when modeling the federal funds rate.

The purpose of this paper is to improve the information quality of bankruptcy prediction models proposed in the literature by building prediction intervals around the point estimates generated by these models and to determine if the use of the prediction intervals in conjunction with the point estimated yields an improvement in predictive accuracy over traditional models. The authors calculated the point estimates and prediction intervals for a sample of firms from 1991 to 2008. The point estimates and prediction intervals were used in concert to classify firms as bankrupt or non-bankrupt. The accuracy of the tested technique was compared to that of a traditional bankruptcy prediction model. The results indicate that the use of upper and lower bounds in concert with the point estimates yield an improvement in the predictive ability of bankruptcy prediction models. The improvements in overall prediction accuracy and non-bankrupt firm prediction accuracy are statistically significant at the 0.01 level. The authors present a technique that (1) provides a more complete picture of the firm’s status, (2) is derived from multiple forms of evidence, (3) uses a predictive interval technique that is easily repeated, (4) can be generated in a timely manner, (5) can be applied to other bankruptcy prediction models in the literature, and (6) is statistically significantly more accurate than traditional point estimate techniques. The current research is the first known study to use the combination of point estimates and prediction intervals to in bankruptcy prediction.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate design performance of 51 gear shaping machines by using data envelopment analysis (DEA).

Existing studies extend traditional DEA by handling bounded and discrete data based on envelopment models. However, value judgment is usually neglected and fail to be incorporated in these envelopment models. In many cases, there is a need for prior preferences. Using existing DEA approaches as a backdrop, the current paper presents a methodology for incorporating assurance region (AR) restrictions into DEA with bounded and discrete data, i.e. the assurance region bounded discrete (AR-BD) DEA model. Then, the AR-BD DEA model is combined with a context-dependent DEA to obtain an efficiency stratification.

The authors examine different AR restrictions and calculate efficiency scores of five scenarios of AR restrictions by using the proposed AR-BD DEA model. It shows that AR restrictions have a great impact on the efficiency scores. The authors also identify nine efficient frontiers in total. For each decision-making unit, it could set benchmarks and improve its performance based on each higher efficient frontier.

This paper first evaluates efficiency of gear shaping machines by considering different (bounded and discrete) variable types of data and including AR restrictions. The AR-BD DEA model and context-dependent AR-BD DEA model proposed in this paper further enrich the DEA theory. The findings in this paper certainly provide useful information for both producers and consumers to make smart decisions.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the significance of bounded rationality for innovation research. It does so by expounding the structure and the assumptions of an agent-based model where boundedly rational actors engage in knowledge development and imitation. It is a conceptual paper that illustrates the model but does not present its results.

This model explores the consequences of common theoretical hypotheses and empirical stylized facts regarding innovation, knowledge development and knowledge management by geographically clustered rival firms. This model artificially generates innovations, unknown and unexpected to the artificial decision-makers. As the set of possibilities is not known a priori to the agents, they cannot apply utility maximization. Bounded rationality enters this model both as behavioural rules of thumb and as cognitive constraints on their application.

This paper illustrates a model.

This paper links innovation studies to the concept of bounded rationality. It shows what problems must be faced and what issues must be addressed by an agent-based model on this subject.

The purpose of this paper is to focus on modeling economy growth with indicators of knowledge-based economy (KBE) introduced by World Bank for a case study in Iran during 1993-2013.

First, for grouping and reducing the number of variables, Tukey method and the principal component analysis are used. Also for modeling, 67 per cent of data is used for training in the two approaches of ARDL bounds testing and gene expression programming (GEP) and 33 per cent of them for testing the models. Then, the result models are compared with fitness function and Akaike information criteria (AIC).

The GEP model with fitness 945.7461 for training data and 954.8403 for testing data from 1000 is better than ARDL bounds testing model with fitness 335.5479 from 1000. In addition, according to model comparison tools (AIC), the GEP model has an extremely larger weight in comparison with ARDL bounds model. Therefore, the GEP model is introduced for future use in academia.

Knowledge and information is one of the most basic sources of wealth in economists’ sight. Thus, using KBE indicators appears essential in economic growth regarding daily progress in knowledge processes and its different theories. It is also extremely important to determine an appropriate model for KBE indicators which play a highly important role in the allocation of the economic resources of the country in an optimal manner.

This paper introduced a novel expression for economy growth using KBE indicators. All the data and the indicators are extracted from Word Bank service between 1993 and 2013.

A proposal in favor of a meta-theoretical approach to the study of group communication is advanced, which offers novel questions on group communication scholarship: the study of the bounded rationality of groups and teams. The chapter focuses on methodological implications of the bounded rationality perspective for group communication research. The notion of bounded rationality comes with an invitation to analyze group communication from the vantage point of an adaptation process that involves the communication processes that are employed by groups along with characteristics of the environments in which groups are situated. The general concept of bounded rationality is introduced and several promises that this meta-theoretical lens offers to group communication scholarship are described. Three methodological signature characteristics are highlighted: the development and test of process models, the analysis and description of the ecological and social environments of groups, and the development of representative designs in the study of groups.

The purpose of this editorial is to introduce the Special Issue “Agent-Based Models of Bounded Rationality” and to provide an overview of its rationale and main objectives.

After outlining the overall framework to justify the choice of agent-based modeling in relation to bounded rationality, an overview of the six papers published in the Special Issue is presented.

The paper argues that simulation of complex adaptive social systems is a way to set the ground for updating the concept of bounded rationality and prepare for it to still play a significant role in the years to come.

After its introduction, bounded rationality remained mostly used but seldom discussed in both its assumptions and its meaning. The originality of this introduction is to unveil some of the points that keep rationality still at the core of organization and team research.

This chapter reviews models of decision-making and choice under conditions of certainty. It allows readers to position the contribution of the other chapters in this book in the historical development of the topic area.

Bounded rationality is defined in terms of a strategy to simplify the decision-making process. Based on this definition, different models are reviewed. These models have assumed that individuals simplify the decision-making process by considering a subset of attributes, and/or a subset of choice alternatives and/or by disregarding small differences between attribute differences.

A body of empirical evidence has accumulated showing that under some circumstances the principle of bounded rationality better explains observed choices than the principle of utility maximization. Differences in predictive performance with utility-maximizing models are however small.

The chapter provides a detailed account of the different models, based on the principle of bounded rationality, that have been suggested over the years in travel behaviour analysis. The potential relevance of these models is articulated, model specifications are discussed and a selection of empirical evidence is presented. Aspects of an agenda of future research are identified.

We propose in this paper a novel reliable detection method to recognize forged inpainting images. Detecting potential forgeries and authenticating the content of digital images is extremely challenging and important for many applications. The proposed approach involves developing new probabilistic support vector machines (SVMs) kernels from a flexible generative statistical model named “bounded generalized Gaussian mixture model”. The developed learning framework has the advantage to combine properly the benefits of both discriminative and generative models and to include prior knowledge about the nature of data. It can effectively recognize if an image is a tampered one and also to identify both forged and authentic images. The obtained results confirmed that the developed framework has good performance under numerous inpainted images.