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The purpose of this study is to propose a methodological approach for modeling catastrophic consequences caused by black swan events, based on complexity science, and framed on Feyerabend’s anarchistic theory of knowledge. An empirical application is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.

Thom’s nonlinear differential equations of morphogenesis are used to develop a theoretical model of the impact of catastrophes on international business (IB). The model is then estimated using real-world data on the performance of multinational airlines during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The catastrophe model exhibits a remarkable capability to simultaneously capture complex linear and nonlinear relationships. Through empirical estimations and simulations, this approach enables the analysis of IB phenomena under normal conditions, as well as during black swan events.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the impact of black swan events in IB using a catastrophe model grounded in complexity theory. The proposed model successfully integrates the abrupt and profound effects of catastrophes on multinational corporations, offering a critical perspective on the theoretical and practical use of complexity science in IB.

This study aims to examine the impact of lending liquidity on house prices especially during black swan events such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 and COVID-19. Homeownership is an important goal for many, and house prices are a significant driver of household wealth and the wider economy. This study argues that excessive liquidity from central banks may be driving house price increases, despite negative changes to fundamental drivers. This study contributes to the literature by examining lending liquidity as a driver of house prices and evaluating the efficacy of fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity during black swan events.

This study aims to examine the impact of quantitative easing on Australian house prices during back swan events using data from 2004 to 2021. All macroeconomic and financial data are freely available from official sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the nation's Central Bank. Methodology wise, given the problematic nature of the data such as a mixed order of integration and the possibility of cointegration among some of the I(1) variables, the auto-regressive distributed lag model was selected given its flexibility and relative lack of assumptions.

The Australian housing market continued to perform well during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the house price index reaching an unprecedented high towards the end of 2021. Research using data from 2004 to 2021 found a consistent positive relationship between house prices and housing finance, as well as population growth and the value of work commenced on residential properties. Other traditional drivers such as the unemployment rate, economic activity, stock prices and income levels were found to be less significant. This study suggests that quantitative easing implemented during the pandemic played a significant role in the housing market's performance.

Given the severity of COVID-19, policymakers have responded with fiscal and monetary measures that are unprecedented in scale and scope. The full implications of these responses are yet to be completely understood. In Australia, the policy interest rate was reduced to a historic low of 0.1%. In the following periods house prices appreciated by over 20%. The efficacy of quantitative easing and associated fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity to mitigate the impact of black swan events such as the pandemic has yet to be tested empirically. This study aims to address that paucity in literature by providing such evidence.

The current study aims to examine the impact of two black swan events on the performance of six stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Dubai, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia). The two selected black swan events are the US Mortgage and credit crisis (Global Financial Crisis of 2008) and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The performance of all the six stock markets are represented by their return and price volatility behavior, which has been measured by applying ARCH/GARCH model. The comparative analysis is done by employing mean difference models. The data is collected from Bloomberg on a daily frequency.

The response of two black swan events on the GCC stock markets has been heterogenous in nature. During the financial crisis, the impact was heavily felt on most of the stock markets in the GCC countries. It is revealed that the financial crisis had a negative significant impact on four of the six countries. Whereas during the COVID-19 crisis, it is revealed that there is no significant impact on four of the six selected stock markets. The positive significant impact is felt on two stock markets, namely, the Abu Dhabi stock market and the Saudi stock market.

The present investigation attempts to fill the gap in the literature on the intended topic because it is evident from the literature on the chosen subject that no study has been undertaken to evaluate and contrast the impact of the GFC crisis and COVID-19 on the GCC stock markets.

This research aims to analyse the perceptions of practitioners in three regions regarding the challenges faced by their firms during the pandemic, considered a black-swan event. It examines the strategies implemented to mitigate and recover from risks, evaluates the effectiveness of these strategies and assesses the difficulties encountered in their implementation.

In the summer of 2022, an online survey was conducted among supply chain (SC) practitioners in France, Poland and the St. Louis, Missouri region of the USA. The survey aimed to understand the impact of COVID-19 on their firms and the SC strategies employed to sustain operations. These regions were selected due to their varying levels of SC development, including infrastructure, economic resources and expertise. Moreover, they exhibited different responses in safeguarding the well-being of their citizens during the pandemic.

The study reveals consistent perceptions among practitioners from the three regions regarding the impact of COVID-19 on SCs. Their actions to enhance SC resilience primarily relied on strengthening collaborative efforts within their firms and SCs, thus validating the tenets of the relational view.

COVID-19 is (hopefully) our black-swan pandemic occurrence during our lifetime. Nevertheless, the lessons learned from it can inform future SC risk management practices, particularly in dealing with rare crises. During times of crisis, leveraging existing SC structures may prove more effective and efficient than developing new ones. These findings underscore the significance of relationships in ensuring SC resilience.

This paper aims to facilitate researchers, practitioners and policymakers in understanding and managing the impact of the black swan event – COVID-19 on work from home in the social science subject area through bibliometric analysis. For this purpose, the authors analyzed publications from the Scopus database.

In this paper, the authors conducted bibliometric analysis based on two major techniques: performance analysis and science mapping. The authors applied VOSviewer and Biblioshiny to address the research questions of present study. The study explored the hot trend topics and summarized them with discussions and implications.

Based on the analysis of 500 publications, the authors present an overview of performance and science mapping from the perspective of different aspects such as publication output and authors. Also, authors visualized the text mining by co-word analysis forming nine clusters as well as mapping trend topics. The existing publications were divided into ten clusters according to different keyword analyses: Leadership, Mental health, Technology, Crisis Management, Gender, Challenges, well-being and Work-life balance.

Sample from the Scopus database is not exhaustive, and the dataset may be skewed due to the adoption of the selection criteria. The authors’ concentration was on academic publications in English that excludes potentially intriguing and pioneering studies done in other languages. The study area was limited to social science only.

The paramount lesson is that the COVID-19 quandary is multifaceted, necessitating not simply adaptations to current strategies but also an understanding and analysis of advancements in the economy, commerce and society. According to the analysis presented above, to overcome the COVID-19 “black swan event”, managers must think ahead. The analysis gives leaders and decision-makers a range of useful information on work from home (WFH) difficulties in COVID-19, as well as initiatives and revisions that must be implemented at the economic, social and scientific aspects when dealing with such uncertainties. The findings also aid managers in forecasting the need for sophisticated technology, organizational agility and resilience to attain the desired direction of progress.

With a focus on addressing WFH during COVID-19 from social science perspective and to synthesize its future research directions systematically, the authors performed Bibliometric analysis both with VOSviewer and Biblioshiny, in order to enhance the overall analysis for higher accuracy and more reliable results that is unique value addition and contribution to the existing literature.

All of us seek truth via objective inquiry into various human and nonhuman phenomena that nature presents to us on a daily basis. We are empirical (or nonempirical) decision makers who hold that uncertainty is our discipline, and that understanding how to act under conditions of incomplete information is the highest and most urgent human pursuit (Karl Popper, as cited in Taleb, 2010, p. 57). We verify (prove something as right) or falsify (prove something as wrong), and this asymmetry of knowledge enables us to distinguish between science and nonscience. According to Karl Popper (1971), we should be an “open society,” one that relies on skepticism as a modus operandi, refusing and resisting definitive (dogmatic) truths. An open society, maintained Popper, is one in which no permanent truth is held to exist; this would allow counter-ideas to emerge. Hence, any idea of Utopia is necessarily closed since it chokes its own refutations. A good model for society that cannot be left open for falsification is totalitarian and epistemologically arrogant. The difference between an open and a closed society is that between an open and a closed mind (Taleb, 2004, p. 129). Popper accused Plato of closing our minds. Popper's idea was that science has problems of fallibility or falsifiability. In this chapter, we deal with fallibility and falsifiability of human thinking, reasoning, and inferencing as argued by various scholars, as well as the falsifiability of our knowledge and cherished cultures and traditions. Critical thinking helps us cope with both vulnerabilities. In general, we argue for supporting the theory of “open mind and open society” in order to pursue objective truth.

This chapter addresses one of the most crucial areas for critical thinking: the morality of turbulent markets around the world. All of us are overwhelmed by such turbulent markets. Following Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2004, 2010), we distinguish between nonscalable industries (ordinary professions where income grows linearly, piecemeal or by marginal jumps) and scalable industries (extraordinary risk-prone professions where income grows in a nonlinear fashion, and by exponential jumps and fractures). Nonscalable industries generate tame and predictable markets of goods and services, while scalable industries regularly explode into behemoth virulent markets where rewards are disproportionately large compared to effort, and they are the major causes of turbulent financial markets that rock our world causing ever-widening inequities and inequalities. Part I describes both scalable and nonscalable markets in sufficient detail, including propensity of scalable industries to randomness, and the turbulent markets they create. Part II seeks understanding of moral responsibility of turbulent markets and discusses who should appropriate moral responsibility for turbulent markets and under what conditions. Part III synthesizes various theories of necessary and sufficient conditions for accepting or assigning moral responsibility. We also analyze the necessary and sufficient conditions for attribution of moral responsibility such as rationality, intentionality, autonomy or freedom, causality, accountability, and avoidability of various actors as moral agents or as moral persons. By grouping these conditions, we then derive some useful models for assigning moral responsibility to various entities such as individual executives, corporations, or joint bodies. We discuss the challenges and limitations of such models.

This study aims to test the market anomaly of herding behavior driven by the response to supply chain disruptions in extreme market conditions such as those observed during COVID-19. The authors empirically test the response of the capital market participants for B2B firms, resulting in herding behavior.

Using the event study approach based on the market model, the authors test the impact of supply chain disruptions and resultant herding behavior across six sectors and among different B2B firms. The authors used cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) and cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) to examine the significance of herding behavior across sectors.

The event study results show a significant effect of COVID-19 due to supply chain disruptions across specific sectors. Herding was detected across the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors. The authors also provide evidence of sector-specific disruption impact and herding behavior based on the black swan event and social learning theory.

The authors examine the impact of COVID-19 on herding in the stock market of an emerging economy due to extreme market conditions. This is one of the first studies analyzing lockdown-driven supply chain disruptions and subsequent sector-specific herding behavior. Investors and regulators should take sector-specific responses that are sophisticated during extreme market conditions, such as a pandemic, and update their responses as the situation unfolds.

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the evolutionary mechanism of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impact on international construction multi-projects.

From three concepts of complexity, stressor and detractor risks, a multi-project simulation model under COVID-19 outbreak is proposed to study the characteristics of contingency with three peaks of ordered and disordered states. Specially, COVID-19 brings forth mitigation fee, epidemic prevention fee, holdup fee and schedule delay fee of multi-projects. By integrating parametric model, Monte Carlo and chaos theory, a comparative analysis of its contingency with or without COVID-19 is conducted. Summarizing the simulated results, their total contingencies at certain risk tolerance are obtained at two status of static at one-time point and dynamic over time. Meanwhile, some major risks including detractors, complexities and stressors are screened out for mitigation, especially for epidemic prevention and control. Eventually, the real case is illustrated to demonstrate its validity.

It provides a quantitative analysis framework for the impact of epidemic, a once-in-a-century black swan event with a long tail, on construction multi-projects.

It conduct an effective model to quantify impacts of COVID-19 on international construction multi-projects for implementing effective counter-measures, which lay foundation for claims among different stakeholders.

The term of detractor risk is applied to describe COVID-19 and quantify its impact upon international construction multi-projects. Further, a hybrid model by integrating parametric model and Monte Carlo in type I/II model is proposed to simulate their contingencies at disordered states. Finally, the simulated outcomes of these models are used to guide effective risk control to meet the requirements by the client.

This study aims to help develop “business principles for stakeholder capitalism” in two steps. First, the study defines internal logic of three theories of capitalism and two variants within each theory. Second, it examines approaches to integration into modern democratic capitalism. Treating the three theories as substitutes identifies relative strengths and weaknesses; complementarity and partial overlap approaches to integration study the institutional settings within which stakeholder capitalism operates. Empirical outcomes reflect competition between market and stakeholder businesses for participants, with institutional conditions determining the scope of collective action.

The approach aligns three typologies in a unique conceptual arrangement defining the three theories of capitalism: forms of capitalism, potential failures of each form and associated types of goods. The first method examines the internal logic of each theory of capitalism. The second draws on traditional narrative review of references documenting each theory of capitalism and variants together with modern Marxist anti-capitalism.

Three typologies align uniquely with the theories of capitalism, each having two variants. Both variants of stakeholder capitalism are compatible with compassionate capitalism, constitutional government or polycentric governance but not with self-interest capitalism, dictatorship or Marxism. A theory of modern democratic capitalism allocates roles for private, club and social goods with empirically variable mixes occurring across countries. Competition among different types of enterprises provides an empirical test for comparative advantages of stakeholder capitalism. Future research should consider approaches for testing the proposed conceptual scheme in practice concerning capacity to deal with grand challenges, wicked problems and black swan events.

Research approach is limited to logical examination of theories and literature documentation without direct empirical confirmation. The study does not address practical implications for managers and public officials or social implications concerning private incentives, stakeholder cooperation or collective action.

Originality lies in shifting terms of debate about stakeholder capitalism from advocacy of substitute theories to understanding of its relationship to market capitalism and collective action capitalism. Value lies in explaining desirability of theoretical integration of three types of capitalism into a comprehensive framework for modern democratic capitalism.