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This paper aims to present a financial valuation framework based on the real options theory to evaluate investments in toll road projects delivered under the two‐phase development plan.

The approach is based on applying the real options theory to evaluate investments in toll road projects. In particular, the risk‐neutral valuation method is used for pricing flexibility embedded in the two‐phase development plan. Risk‐neutral binomial lattice is used to model traffic uncertainty and to find the optimal time for the toll road expansion. Probabilistic life cycle cost and revenue analysis is conducted to characterize the investor's financial risk profile and determine the flexibility value of the expansion option.

The flexible, two‐phase development plan can improve the investor's financial risk profile in the toll road project through limiting the downside risk of overinvestment (i.e. decreasing the probability of investment loss) and increasing the expected investment value in a highway project.

Private and public sectors can benefit from this valuation framework and use tax dollars and users' fees effectively through avoiding overinvestment in toll road projects.

The framework consists of several integrated features, which distinguish it from existing investment valuation models. The risk‐neutral valuation method for pricing flexibility embedded in the two‐phase development plan is applied. This real options framework is capable of characterizing traffic boundary, at which it is optimal for the investor to expand the toll road. Further, this framework provides the likelihood distribution of when the investor may expand the toll road.

The purpose of this paper is to develop an option pricing model applicable to US options. The lognormality assumption that has typically been imposed with past binomial and trinomial option pricing models is relaxed. The relaxed lattice model is then used to determine skewness and kurtosis of distributions of futures prices implied from option prices.

The relaxed lattice is based on Gaussian quadrature. The markets studied include corn, soybeans, and wheat. Skewness and kurtosis are implied by minimizing the squared deviations of actual option premia from predicted premia.

Positive skewness is the major source of nonnormality, but both skewness and kurtosis are important as the trinomial model that considers kurtosis has greater accuracy than the binomial model. The out‐of‐sample forecasting accuracy of the relaxed lattice models is better than the Black‐Scholes model in most, but not all cases.

The model might benefit from using option prices from more than one day. The implied skewness and kurtosis were quite variable and using more data might reduce this variability.

Empirical results mostly show positive implied skewness, which suggests extreme price rises were more likely than extreme price decreases.

The relaxed lattice is a new model and the results about implied higher moments are new for these commodities. There are competing models available that should be able to get similar accuracy, so one key advantage of the new approach is its simplicity and ease of use.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the risk neutral and non-risk neutral pricing of Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (S-REITs) via comparing the average of the individual ratios (of deviation between expected and observed closing price/observed closing price) with the ratio (of standard deviation/mean) for closing prices via the binomial options pricing tree model.

If the ratio (of standard deviation/mean) ratio > the ratio (of deviation between expected and observed closing price/observed closing price), then the deviation of closing prices from the expected risk neutral prices is not significant and that the S-REIT is consistent with risk neutral pricing. If the ratio (of deviation between expected and observed closing price/observed closing price) is greater, then the S-REIT is not consistent with risk neutral pricing.

Capitacommercial Trust (CCT), Capitamall Trust (CMT) and Keppel Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) have large positive differences between the two ratios (39.86, 30.79 and 18.96 percent, respectively), implying that these S-REITs are not trading at risk neutral pricing. Suntec REIT has a small positive difference of 2.35 percent between both ratios, implying that it is trading at risk neutral pricing. Ascendas REIT has the largest negative difference between the two ratios at −4.24 percent, to be followed by Mapletree Logistics Trust at −0.44 percent. Both S-REITs are trading at risk neutral pricing. The analysis shows that CCT, CMT and Keppel REIT exhibit risk averse pricing.

Results are consistent with prudential asset allocation for viable S-REIT portfolio investing but that not all these S-REITs exhibit strong market efficiency in their pricing.

Pricing may be risk neutral over a certain period but investor sentiments, fear of risks and speculative activities could affect an S-REIT’s risk neutrality.

With enhanced risk diversification activities, the S-REITs should attain risk neutral pricing.

Virtually no research of this nature has been undertaken for S-REITS.

The study aims to design a control chart based on an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart of Pearson's residuals of a model of negative binomial regression in order to detect possible anomalies in mortality data.

In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed chart, the authors have considered official historical records of death of children of Ecuador. A negative binomial regression model was fitted to the data, and a chart of the Pearson residuals was designed. The parameters of the chart were obtained by simulation, as well as the performances of the charts related to changes in the mean of death.

When the chart was plotted, outliers were detected in the deaths of children in the years 1990–1995, 2001–2006, 2013–2015, which could show that there are underreporting or an excessive growth in mortality. In the analysis of performances, the value of λ = 0.05 presented the fastest detection of changes in the mean death.

The proposed charts present better performances in relation to EWMA charts for deviance residuals, with a remarkable advantage of the Pearson residuals, which are much easier to interpret and calculate. Finally, the authors would like to point out that although this paper only applies control charts to Ecuadorian infant mortality, the methodology can be used to calculate mortality in any geographical area or to detect outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Starting from a basis laid by Burrell, this paper develops a stochastic model of library borrowing using the Negative Binomial distribution. This shows an improvement over previous characterizations for academic libraries and accords well with new data obtained at Huddersfield Public Library. Evidence concerning the process of issue decay is presented and employed to obtain an optimum stock turnover rate for any collection in its ‘steady state’. A method is then given by which simple relegation tests can be constructed to maintain such as optimum turnover. Although not the ‘final word’ in circulation modelling, the negative binomial distribution extends the range of model applicability into the area of high volume, rapid movement collections with some success.

The main purpose of the study is to promote consideration of the issues and approaches available for costing sustainable buildings with a view to minimising cost overruns, occasioned by conservative whole-life cost estimates. The paper primarily looks at the impact of adopting continuity in whole-life cost models for zero carbon houses.

The study embraces a mathematically based risk procedure based on the binomial theorem for analysing the cost implication of the Lighthouse zero-carbon house project. A practical application of the continuous whole-life cost model is developed and results are compared with existing whole-life cost techniques using finite element methods and Monte Carlo analysis.

With standard whole-life costing, discounted present-value analysis tends to underestimate the cost of a project. Adopting continuity in whole-life cost models presents a clearer picture and profile of the economic realities and decision-choices confronting clients and policy-makers. It also expands the informative scope on the costs of zero-carbon housing projects.

A primary limitation in this work is its focus on just one property type as the unit of analysis. This research is also limited in its consideration of initial and running cost categories only. The capital cost figures for the Lighthouse are indicative rather than definitive.

The continuous whole-life cost technique is a novel and innovative approach in financial appraisal […] Benefits of an improved costing framework will be far-reaching in establishing effective policies aimed at client acceptance and optimally performing supply chain networks.

The continuous whole-life costing pioneers an experimental departure from the stereo-typical discounting mechanism in standard whole-life costing procedures.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of operational losses in insurance companies.

By using most common estimates of frequency and severity of losses that affected business‐lines during 2009, the paper integrates a quantitative aspect that reflects the mode of organization in the insurance company. In this paper, it would be more appropriate to focus on the frequency and severity of losses estimated by insurers and which are related to each category of operational risk events that took place in 2009.

The paper finds that the frequency of operational losses is positively related to the Market Share (MARKSHARE) and the Rate of Geographic Location (RAGELOC). However, the occurrence of loss is negatively related to the Variety of Insurance Activities (VARIACT). The paper also found a decrease in the frequency of losses associated with a large number of employees. Therefore, there is a significant relationship between the Human Factor (HF) and the occurrence of operational losses. In terms of severity, the empirical study has shown that the probability of zero intensity of operational losses is negatively influenced by the Market Share (MARKSHARE) and the Rate of Geographic Location (RAGELOC). In the same framework, the Variety of Insurance Activities (VARIACT) has a negative effect on the probability of high operational loss severity.

Despite the absence of the quantitative data of operational risk, this article will discover a new research perspective to estimate the frequency and severity of operational losses in the insurance sector in Tunisia.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of innovation outputs proxied by number of patent applications, trademarks and industrial designs in developing countries.

The paper employs a panel data and Negative Binomial method to analyse the main determinants affecting the innovation outputs.

The results implicitly suggest that providing a fertile ground to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) can lead to much better innovation outputs. The study also strongly supports the role of institutions and governance for increasing innovation activities in developing economies as indicated by positive impacts of governance factors in the model. However, the impact of economic freedom indicators on improving innovation outputs is mixed.

This paper contributes to the existing literature in two ways: it examines the effect of FDI and research and development on innovation of selected developing countries; and the study uses a panel data approach to increase the accuracy of the results through exploiting the significant variations of innovation outputs across countries, while controlling for a larger number of innovation outputs and product determinants. To the authors knowledge, this is the first empirical study on the behaviour of innovation outputs for developing countries.

The purpose of this paper is to construct option pricing models for real estate development by considering and incorporating institutional arrangements, direct interactions and financial constraints in the model. It extends the application of real option theory from the framework borrowed from financial option pricing, and considers the case where a development company has restrictions from outside environment and financial constraint. It explores the effects of these additional practical factors on real asset project value and development timing. This paper makes contributions to bridge the theoretical models and practical applications.

Real estate development is modelled in the binomial option pricing framework with the considerations of time‐to‐build, foregone rent if delaying, institutional environment and capital budgeting. The investment timings are derived from the models and sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the effects of these factors.

Apart from the factors in traditional option pricing theory, this paper confirms that the contractual covenants, positive synergies between properties and financial status of the firm, which enhance or restrict real flexibility embedded in the development land, influence project value and investment timing. Numerical examples illustrate the effects of these factors. It is argued that the valuation of real options should place emphasis on industry‐specific characteristics and start from the perspective of the firm rather than individual options.

The models constructed in this paper and the results can be directly used in the practical real estate development.

This paper incorporates many practical factors in real estate development which are not investigated in previous studies. It values the option project from the firm perspective rather than project perspective as previous studies. It also shows the effects of institutional arrangement and firm factors on project value and development timing.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the formation mechanism of the “One Case One Meeting” system in rural China, which is an institutional arrangement to voluntarily provide public goods to villagers. The survey data are used to test the applicability of the “One Case One Meeting” system.

Applying the Nash equilibrium and the nested game models, this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of the “One Case One Meeting” system. Based on the survey data, the zero‐inflated Poisson regression model (ZIP) and the zero‐inflated negative binomial regression model (ZINB) are applied to examine the impacts of the “One Case One Meeting” system on village‐level public investment.

The results suggest that the “One Case One Meeting” system can be executed more effectively, provided that the following two conditions are both satisfied: first, acquaintance community; and second, election participants have the freedom to express their real opinions. The empirical results from the ZINB model show that the system has a significant positive impact on village‐level public investment in production while the results from the ZIP model show that the system does not significantly affect village‐level public investment in consumption.

Based on the findings, the paper suggests that villages adopt the “One Case One Meeting” system for issues related to public investment in production, but does not suggest this model for issues related to public investment in consumption. In addition, it is necessary to enhance democratic consciousness in farmers' education and, in order to create more channels for village public investment in production, it is necessary to regulate the election system.