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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 March 2018

Teik-Kheong Tan and Merouane Lakehal-Ayat

The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to an option buyer and results in a substantial capital loss, even with a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most…

2016

Abstract

Purpose

The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to an option buyer and results in a substantial capital loss, even with a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers, but the profit they can achieve is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. This paper aims to demonstrate the dynamics of implied volatility (IV) as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the exploratory factor analysis (EFA), they extract four constructs and the results from the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) indicated a good model fit for the constructs.

Design/methodology/approach

This section describes the methodology used for conducting the study. This includes the study area, study approach, sources of data, sampling technique and the method of data analysis.

Findings

Although there is extensive literature on methods for estimating IV dynamics during earnings announcement, few researchers have looked at the impact of expected market maker move, IV differential and IV Rank on the IV path after the earnings announcement. One reason for this research gap is because of the recent introduction of weekly options for equities by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) back in late 2010. Even then, the CBOE only released weekly options four individual equities – Bank of America (BAC.N), Apple (AAPL.O), Citigroup (C.N) and US-listed shares of BP (BP.L) (BP.N). The introduction of weekly options provided more trading flexibility and precision timing from shorter durations. This automatically expanded expiration choices, which in turned offered greater access and flexibility from the perspective of trading volatility during earnings announcement. This study has demonstrated the impact of including market sentiment and liquidity into the forecasting model for IV during earnings. This understanding in turn helps traders to formulate strategies that can circumvent the undefined risk associated with trading options strategies such as writing strangles.

Research limitations/implications

The first limitation of the study is that the firms included in the study are relatively large, and the results of the study can therefore not be generalized to medium sized and small firms. The second limitation lies in the current sample size, which in many cases was not enough to be able to draw reliable conclusions on. Scaling the sample size up is only a function of time and effort. This is easily overcome and should not be a limitation in the future. The third limitation concerns the measurement of the variables. Under the assumption of a normal distribution of returns (i.e. stock prices follow a random walk process), which means that the distribution of returns is symmetrical, one can estimate the probabilities of potential gains or losses associated with each amount. This means the standard deviation of securities returns, which is called historical volatility and is usually calculated as a moving average, can be used as a risk indicator. The prices used for the calculations are usually the closing prices, but Parkinson (1980) suggests that the day’s high and low prices would provide a better estimate of real volatility. One can also refine the analysis with high-frequency data. Such data enable the avoidance of the bias stemming from the use of closing (or opening) prices, but they have only been available for a relatively short time. The length of the observation period is another topic that is still under debate. There are no criteria that enable one to conclude that volatility calculated in relation to mean returns over 20 trading days (or one month) and then annualized is any more or less representative than volatility calculated over 130 trading days (or six months) and then annualized, or even than volatility measured directly over 260 trading days (one year). Nonetheless, the guidelines adopted in this study represent the best practices of researchers thus far.

Practical implications

This study has indicated that an earnings announcement can provide a volatility mispricing opportunity to allow an investor to profit from a sudden, sharp drop in IV. More specifically, the methodology developed by Tan and Bing is now well supported both empirically and theoretically in terms of qualifying opportunities that can be profitable because of the volatility crush. Conventionally, the option strategy of shorting strangles carries unlimited theoretical risk; however, the methodology has demonstrated that this risk can be substantially reduced if followed judiciously. This profitable strategy relies on a set of qualifying parameters including liquidity, premium collection, volatility differential, expected market move and market sentiment. Building upon this framework, the understanding of the effects of persistence and leverage resulted in further reducing the risk associated with trading options during earnings announcements. As a guideline, the sentiment and liquidity variables help to qualify a trade and the effects of persistence and leverage help to close the qualified trade.

Social implications

The authors find a positive association between the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement. These findings substantiate further the four factors that influence IV dynamics during earnings announcement and conclude that just looking at persistence and leverage alone will not generate profitable trading opportunities.

Originality/value

The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to the option buyer with substantial capital loss, even for a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers; however, the profit is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. The authors demonstrate the dynamics of IV as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the EFA, they extracted four constructs and the results from the CFA indicated a good model fit for the constructs. Using EFA, CFA and Bayesian analysis, how this model can help investors formulate the right strategy to achieve the best risk/reward mix is demonstrated. Using Bayesian estimation and IV differential to proxy for differences of opinion about term structures in option pricing, the authors find a positive association among the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 July 2022

Nianfei Gan, Miaomiao Zhang, Bing Zhou, Tian Chai, Xiaojian Wu and Yougang Bian

The purpose of this paper is to develop a real-time trajectory planner with optimal maneuver for autonomous vehicles to deal with dynamic obstacles during parallel parking.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a real-time trajectory planner with optimal maneuver for autonomous vehicles to deal with dynamic obstacles during parallel parking.

Design/methodology/approach

To deal with dynamic obstacles for autonomous vehicles during parking, a long- and short-term mixed trajectory planning algorithm is proposed in this paper. In long term, considering obstacle behavior, A-star algorithm was improved by RS curve and potential function via spatio-temporal map to obtain a safe and efficient initial trajectory. In short term, this paper proposes a nonlinear model predictive control trajectory optimizer to smooth and adjust the trajectory online based on the vehicle kinematic model. Moreover, the proposed method is simulated and verified in four common dynamic parking scenarios by ACADO Toolkit and QPOASE solver.

Findings

Compared with the spline optimization method, the results show that the proposed method can generate efficient obstacle avoidance strategies, safe parking trajectories and control parameters such as the front wheel angle and velocity in high-efficient central processing units.

Originality/value

It is aimed at improving the robustness of automatic parking system and providing a reference for decision-making in a dynamic environment.

Details

Journal of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-9802

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Management Decision, vol. 52 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 June 2021

Ke Wang, Zheming Yang, Bing Liang and Wen Ji

The rapid development of 5G technology brings the expansion of the internet of things (IoT). A large number of devices in the IoT work independently, leading to difficulties in…

Abstract

Purpose

The rapid development of 5G technology brings the expansion of the internet of things (IoT). A large number of devices in the IoT work independently, leading to difficulties in management. This study aims to optimize the member structure of the IoT so the members in it can work more efficiently.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors consider from the perspective of crowd science, combining genetic algorithms and crowd intelligence together to optimize the total intelligence of the IoT. Computing, caching and communication capacity are used as the basis of the intelligence according to the related work, and the device correlation and distance factors are used to measure the improvement level of the intelligence. Finally, they use genetic algorithm to select a collaborative state for the IoT devices.

Findings

Experimental results demonstrate that the intelligence optimization method in this paper can improve the IoT intelligence level up to ten times than original level.

Originality/value

This paper is the first study that solves the problem of device collaboration in the IoT scenario based on the scientific background of crowd intelligence. The intelligence optimization method works well in the IoT scenario, and it also has potential in other scenarios of crowd network.

Details

International Journal of Crowd Science, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-7294

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 February 2021

Silvia Ranfagni, Monica Faraoni, Lamberto Zollo and Virginia Vannucci

The purpose of this paper is to propose a research approach to investigate brand alignment by exploiting textual data from online brand communities in the coffee industry…

14520

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a research approach to investigate brand alignment by exploiting textual data from online brand communities in the coffee industry. Specifically, consumer brand associations from user-generated content (UGC) and company brand associations from firm-generated content (FGC) are explored to measure the alignment between brand identity and brand image. The selected context of research is the beverage industry wherein companies are called on to develop appropriate digital websites and brand communication strategies to enhance the consumers' brand experience.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors introduce a research approach that integrates netnography with text mining analysis. Since brand associations were the basis of the study’s analysis, the authors focused on text mining procedures, providing data (co-occurrences) corresponding to brand associations that consumers perceive and that the company communicates. Data were used to develop the measurements of brand alignment.

Findings

The main findings of this research highlight the importance for both scholars and practitioners of determining brand alignment of beverage products in online communities. Knowing the alignment between the way a company communicates its brand identity and how this is perceived by consumers allows for effectively reviewing brand communication.

Originality/value

Although the combined analysis of the alignment between brand image and brand identification has received attention in marketing literature, most scholars have neglected how to measure brand alignment. This is a need for many marketing managers in the coffee industry who are now moving in digital environments where the role of consumers is not that of receivers of brand communication but rather that of cocreators of brand value.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 123 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

Content available

Abstract

Details

Library Hi Tech News, vol. 40 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0741-9058

Content available
Article
Publication date: 17 August 2012

412

Abstract

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 March 2024

Tjaša Redek and Uroš Godnov

The Internet has changed consumer decision-making and influenced business behaviour. User-generated product information is abundant and readily available. This paper argues that…

Abstract

Purpose

The Internet has changed consumer decision-making and influenced business behaviour. User-generated product information is abundant and readily available. This paper argues that user-generated content can be efficiently utilised for business intelligence using data science and develops an approach to demonstrate the methods and benefits of the different techniques.

Design/methodology/approach

Using Python Selenium, Beautiful Soup and various text mining approaches in R to access, retrieve and analyse user-generated content, we argue that (1) companies can extract information about the product attributes that matter most to consumers and (2) user-generated reviews enable the use of text mining results in combination with other demographic and statistical information (e.g. ratings) as an efficient input for competitive analysis.

Findings

The paper shows that combining different types of data (textual and numerical data) and applying and combining different methods can provide organisations with important business information and improve business performance.

Research limitations/implications

The paper shows that combining different types of data (textual and numerical data) and applying and combining different methods can provide organisations with important business information and improve business performance.

Originality/value

The study makes several contributions to the marketing and management literature, mainly by illustrating the methodological advantages of text mining and accompanying statistical analysis, the different types of distilled information and their use in decision-making.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 53 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 August 2023

Rose Luke and Joash Mageto

The belt and road initiative (BRI) emanates from China and seeks to connect Europe, Asia and Africa through transport and telecommunications infrastructure. Despite the importance…

1190

Abstract

Purpose

The belt and road initiative (BRI) emanates from China and seeks to connect Europe, Asia and Africa through transport and telecommunications infrastructure. Despite the importance of Africa in the BRI network, very little research has been done on the BRI in Africa, and even less of this emanates from Africa itself. In particular, considering that the BRI investments in Africa are largely transport related, there is almost no research covering the area of logistics, which should be greatly affected by the infrastructure investments. This paper sought to establish the current state of logistics research related to the BRI in Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

A bibliometric analysis was conducted on documents extracted from the SCOPUS database.

Findings

The findings indicate that there is a lack of research in critical areas such as environmental, social and economic impact of BRI transport investments, governance, logistics performance and international cooperation. In particular, there is a massive gap in local knowledge regarding the BRI.

Research limitations/implications

The study is limited to published research indexed in the SCOPUS database. Future research directions include empirical studies into BRI project initiation investigation, economic and environmental impacts, governance structures and policy intervention requirements and macro-level logistics impacts.

Practical implications

The study emphasises the importance publishing all the relevant information regarding BRI related projects in Africa to create transparency.

Originality/value

The study investigates the current research on the effect of China's BRI on transport and logistics in Africa through a bibliometric analysis. The investigation reveals that while there are huge investments in infrastructure, the actual effect on logistics of participating countries in Africa has not been interrogated.

Details

Journal of International Logistics and Trade, vol. 21 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1738-2122

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 23 September 2019

Yi-Ming Wei, Qiao-Mei Liang, Gang Wu and Hua Liao

Abstract

Details

Energy Economics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-294-2

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