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The purpose of this paper is to indicate the existence of certain time series characteristics in daily stock returns of four small Asian (Pacific basin) financial markets. It aims to study efficient capital markets (efficient markets hypothesis (EMH)) as results may infer that there are predictable properties of the time series of prices of traded securities on organized markets in Singapore, Malaysia, Korea and Indonesia.

The paper analyses daily variations in financial market data obtained from the Sandra Ann Morsilli Pacific‐basin Capital Markets Research Center (PACAP).

The weak form efficiency test example examines the wide range of trading rules available to common investors. Some theorists try to convince everyone that the weak form of EMH is acceptable due to the weight of academic opinion. The paper finds that for short‐term (daily) changes, the markets of four of the smaller Pacific‐basin stock markets have predictable properties, which leads to the conclusion that the weak‐form EMH does not hold for these markets.

The study is limited to those firms and exchanges studied and the time period covered.

There have been all too few studies of these small financial markets up to now and there is no other study utilizing these data on the Pacific basin (Asia). The results are unique and original.

Outlines previous research on stock market efficiency and technical trading rules in both developed and emerging markets. Uses variable moving average (VMA) models to develop five technical trading rules and applies them to markets in Taiwan, Thailand and The Phillippines 1994‐1999. Compares results with the US and Japan indices and a simple buy and hold strategy. Finds the VMA rules gave higher returns in Taiwan and very much higher returns in Thailand and The Phillippines, even after transaction costs, but not in Japan and the USA. Considers the reasons why and calls for further research.

This study examines differences in the extent of predictability in the pricing of the two main classes of equity traded in China, namely: A shares (available to Chinese investors) and B shares (traditionally available only to non‐Chinese investors). The study extends previous work by conducting a wider range of analyses and extending the sample period until the relaxation of rules preventing domestic investors from purchasing B shares. The results suggest that earlier evidence of greater predictability in the pricing of B shares is not entirely robust to changes in the method of analysis, and may only partially explain why Chinese authorities have recently decided to widen participation in the B market.

This paper tests two moving average technical trading rules for four Asian markets. Our results indicate that moving average rules do indeed have predictive power and can discern recurring price patterns for profitable trading. Moreover, our results support the hypothesis that technical trading rules can outperform the buy‐and‐hold strategy. Break‐even one‐way trading costs are estimated to be high for all four markets. To confirm the test outcome, robust tests based on bootstrap and the related t‐tests among the markets are also carried out. We conclude from the statistical results that moving average rules are valid and indeed have predictive power. It is implied that the trading rules may be used to design a trading strategy that will beat the buy‐and‐hold strategy in the Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan markets. The contribution of the current study is that this is the first validation test of trading rules using four markets at a similar development stage and culture tradition; and in the tests, we use most current and longer periods than the periods used in previous literature. Our robust tests are unique and considered distribution‐free.

This study examines the cross‐autocorrelation of size‐based portfolio returns in a sample of 15 major European markets using daily data from January 1990 through December 1999. Previous studies have primarily used U.S. data. This study extends previous research by considering results in multiple European exchanges. We examine whether a difference in size‐based portfolios exists by testing cross‐autocorrelation, granger‐causality, and asymmetric responses in the European markets. The results confirm that large stock portfolio returns lead small stock portfolio returns in most European countries, and that cross‐autocorrelation is present both within and between European financial markets.

We tested for evidence of stock price bubbles in the Malaysian stock market from 1978 to 2004. Four different tests were used namely excess volatility tests, unit root/co-integration tests, duration dependence tests, and the intrinsic bubbles model. All four tests indicate that during the sample period, there was evidence of stock price bubbles. All tests results conform to the theoretical literature on asset price bubbles except for the results on the intrinsic bubbles model, which concludes that Malaysian investors under react to information on dividends. We find this result hardly surprising as anecdotal evidence does indicate that Malaysian investors place more importance on capital gains as compared to dividends. Although we do not go into a debate on whether authorities should be prick the bubble to stem its negative effects, we argue that transparent information dissemination will ensure that the stock market becomes more efficient in pricing stocks.

The upsurge of globalization has made investors cautious toward investing decisions, and, resultantly, sophisticated techniques of forecasting and analyzing the stock markets have emerged. Particularly, this trend has gained momentum in emerging economies. One such trend is to overcome the investing risks associated with formation of rational bubbles. Bubbles are formed when asset prices inflate to a very high level temporarily, and they ultimately burst. Investors may take advantage of this short-lived phenomenon and gain high returns, but may also suffer as the entire investing value declines when the bubble bursts. The purpose of this paper is to identify rational bubbles in the emerging capital markets of South Asian region.

The monthly data have been obtained from June 1997 to February 2018 for Pakistan, Bombay, Dhaka and Colombo stock markets, and supremum-Augmented Dicky Fuller test developed by Phillips and Yu (2011) has been utilized to identify the rational bubbles.

The results revealed the presence of rational bubbles in South Asian equity markets. The current study is of significant nature for the facilitation of investors in future-making investing decisions concerning with the formation of rational bubbles.

Several studies have been conducted on stock markets of developed regions. Specific bubble episodes, which occurred previously, have helped the researchers and investors in gaining plenty of insights. A lot of studies have been conducted on the SAARC region as well. But they have used the conventional unit root test for bubble identification and not used as extensive data as, in this study, have been taken. This research is aimed to study equity prices of the four stock markets to establish the fact that if rational bubbles exist in the index, they are reflected in the returns or not.

This study aims to provide preliminary information to the investor by determining which indices co-movement, with the data mining method.

In this context, data sets containing daily opening and closing prices between 2001 and 2019 have been created for 11 stock market indexes in the world. The association rule algorithm, one of the data mining techniques, is used in the analysis of the data.

It is observed that the US stock market indices take part in the highest confidence levels between association rules. The XU100 stock index co-movement with both the European stock market indices and the US stock indices. In addition, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) (Hong Kong) takes part in the association rules of all stock market indices.

The important issue for data sets is that the opening/closing values of the same day or the previous day are taken into account according to the open or closed status of other stock market indices by taking the opening time of the stock exchange index to be created. Therefore, data sets are arranged for each stock market index, separately. As a result of this data set arranging process, it is possible to find out co-movements of the stock market indexes. It is proof that the world stock indices have co-movement, and this continues as a cycle.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the profitability of technical trading relative to buy-and-hold (BH) strategy at firm level, controlling for firm size and trading volume.

This paper applies variable-length moving averages (VMAs) thoroughly to each and every stock listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) and computes the excess returns of technical trading relative to BH strategy. The samples are further grouped by firm size and trading volume. Furthermore, possible data snooping bias is investigated by employing Hansen’s (2005) Superior Predictive Ability tests.

The result shows that VMAs outperform the BH strategy. The profitability of VMAs, remarkably, is positively associated with size and trading volume. After correcting for data snooping bias, VMAs with longer moving averages outperform VMAs with shorter moving averages. The evidence suggests that size and volume information is accountable for trend projection.

Unlike past studies simply applying technical trading rules to market indices, portfolios, or selected stocks, this paper evaluates the profitability of technical trading by applying VMAs comprehensively to each and every individual stock listed on TWSE controlling for the effect of firm size and trading volume, providing more practical insights for trading individual stocks.

The purpose of this study is to explore the inherent instability, if any, in the context of investment in stocks of environment friendly companies (or the “green” stocks) across the globe using the time series momentum (TSM) trading strategies.

Using the monthly data for the Green Indexes from the USA, the Europe and the Asia-Pacific region over 2003-2019, the authors construct TSM trading strategies to examine the efficacy of regional Green Indexes as well as two diversified global green portfolios to offer abnormal return to attract investors, particularly speculators. The authors’ explore further whether such strategies could operate as hedging instrument. A comparison of results across different regions helps the authors establish a universal nature, if any, of investment in green stocks.

The study finds that regional Green Indexes are unable to outperform the market. The global green portfolios perform significantly better. The inefficacy of the relevant time series momentum trading strategies rules out the possibility of speculations. However, the number of profitable momentum strategies is significantly higher for the diversified portfolios in longer run. The portfolios perform significantly better in outperforming the buy-only strategies as well. The stable market, escalated demand and the resulting increment in valuation of green stocks make adoption of greener technologies a choice rather than a forced obligation. This offers a solution to the problem of Tragedy of Common.

Sustained increase in investment in green stocks is crucial from an environment perspective, as better valuation of their stocks would indubitably convince firms to reduce their carbon footprints. A continued enthusiasm however would require investors’ faith in it. Presence of momentum profit would invite speculators leading to irrational exuberance, dwindling confidence and consequent fragility. Literature on green investment is relatively sparse with the threat of its vulnerability issues left largely unnoticed. The authors’ study fills these gaps.